Australian federal election 2016

[timrollpickering]

There's quite a bit of history of state National parties declaring against the Coalition and putting their federal MPs in an awkward position - some will sit with the federal party even though it's in Coalition, some will sit outside it as crossbenchers and a few have even confusingly sat in the party room but out of the Coalition room (the 1987 split was especially complicated).

[greenhert]

Just days into the campaign period one Liberal candidate has already quit: www.news.com.au/finance/small-business/lib-brothelowner-quits-party/news-story/0c13c1798b6f551083a39031a8840138

[markgoodair]

Palmers United Party will have Senate candidates in every state and are hoping to hold the balance of power.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

TPP Polling 50-50 however with 10 days to go Coalition look certain of narrow victory because most labour swing is in WA (only state where labour doesn't have to pick up seats for majority) and marginal seat polling Opinion polling for the Australian federal election, 2016 - Wiki is showing Coalition leading in key marginals.

The only way for labour victory is Xenophon (the only Politician in the world whose name last name begins with X) surge in SA (currently polling at 25-35% which is a surge) and looks to gain lots of coalition seats (most importantly Sturt, Christopher Pyne (Minister for Industry, Innovation and Science)) through labour preferences AND supporting labour over Coalition
And green gaining Kelly O'Dwyer (Minister for Small Business) seat of  Higgins (seat polling LIB 53 - 47 GRN)
And independents Tony Windsor (MP for New England 2001-2013 when he didn't run) regaining his old seat of New England (polling NAT 51-49 IND) which is of course BARNABY JOYCE'S SEAT THE DEPUTY PM (and Lunatic) and Rob Oakeshott (former MP for Lyne 2008-2013 when he didn't run however his hometown of Port Macquarie has moved into Cowper) gaining Cowper (gran and pa's seat)(polling NAT 53.8-46.2 IND)

[Foggy]

Jun 22, 2016 11:17:46 GMT AustralianSwingVoter said:

The only way for labour victory is Xenophon (the only Politician in the world whose name last name begins with X)

I raise you current Greek health minister Andreas Xanthos.

Thanks for that stream-of-consciousness overview, young Bruce. It was almost as hard to decipher as Ebner-Englisch sometimes is on these boards!

[john07]

Jun 23, 2016 0:38:45 GMT Foggy said:

Jun 22, 2016 11:17:46 GMT AustralianSwingVoter said:

The only way for labour victory is Xenophon (the only Politician in the world whose name last name begins with X)

I raise you current Greek health minister Andreas Xanthos.

Thanks for that stream-of-consciousness overview, young Bruce. It was almost as hard to decipher as Ebner-Englisch sometimes is on these boards!

I raise that with Malcolm X!

[dizz]

I'm guessing 2PP will be:

Coalition 51
ALP 49,

with the coalition with a 8 seat majority.

[Deleted]

Live coverage here

www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/

[markgoodair]

The coalition are on 45 seats according to ABC.

[uhurasmazda]

Looks like the Coalition are pulling ahead in QLD while Labor stay steady in Victoria achieving modest swings in NSW. A Coalition majority looks very likely at this point, although this is obviously early days.

EDIT: And Pauline Hanson looks locked on for at least one Senate seat.

[iain]

Looking at the seats beyond the big two:
Independents to retain Denison and Indi
KAP to retain Kennedy
Greens to retain Melbourne and ahead in Batman (would be a gain)
NXT to gain Mayo
Nationals retaining all their seats so far, and gaining Murray from the Liberals

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jul 2, 2016 9:02:56 GMT uhurasmazda said:

Looks like the Coalition are pulling ahead in QLD while Labor stay steady in Victoria achieving modest swings in NSW. A Coalition majority looks very likely at this point, although this is obviously early days.

EDIT: And Pauline Hanson looks locked on for at least one Senate seat.

Now there's an idea for a thread- political careers that came back from the dead.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Reports that Glenn "The Brick With Eyes" Lazarus and libertarian purist David Leyonhjelm will be re-elected.

[iain]

Batman has been called for Labor, so looks like the Greens will remain on one seat.

[iain]

House of Representatives is currently:
Coalition - 72
Labor - 65
Other - 5

In Doubt - 8

Two of those are safe Liberal seats where counting has barely begun, while one is a Liberal/National battle, so unless Labor pick up all the other 5, the Coalition will be re-elected.

[iain]

Now it appears to be 73-68 with 4 left to call, all Lib-Lab battles. Presumably the site glitches before, already adding in the safe Liberal seats to the totals despite having not called them.

[Sibboleth]

Tasmania saw a strong Labor comeback which is nice

[iain]

Jul 2, 2016 12:17:09 GMT iain said:

Now it appears to be 73-68 with 4 left to call, all Lib-Lab battles. Presumably the site glitches before, already adding in the safe Liberal seats to the totals despite having not called them.

Now 74-66 with 5 to call - two seats called for Labor back to TCTC

[Richard Allen]

I see that after a scare last time Bob Katter has recovered to something near his old level of support.

[Georg Ebner]

So, with 80% counted:
L&NP lost nationally (FirstPreferences) 3.5%, only 1% in liberal Victoria, but 5% in Abbott's NSW (and Tasmania), 9% in NT, 10% in SA and gained minimally in Canberra.
Labor rose by 1.5, WA and NT +4, Tas 3.5, NSW 2.5, SA -4, Vic&Qld&ACT +1.
The Greens gained uniformly ~2% (in NSW 1, in SA -2).