Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 2, 2016 16:33:22 GMT
With 78% counted, the ABC set the Coaltion suddenly back to 67 seats, the same number given to Labor!
The 11 in doubt split roughly 6:5 in favor of Labor.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2016 16:48:22 GMT
With 78% counted, the ABC set the Coaltion suddenly back to 67 seats, the same number given to Labor! The 11 in doubt split roughly 6:5 in favor of Labor. They dropped the predictive element (factoring in postal votes, which normally favor the Coalition) and went back to the raw numbers, likely because it was so close that it was pointless to try to predict a winner. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 2, 2016 20:01:04 GMT
Never a fan of Turnbull for various, obvious reasons, but my concern at the moment is for the centre-right majority in the Rhodes parliament which was pretty small following the results in Canada
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2016 20:15:11 GMT
Some very interesting and not necessarily easily understandable swings. ALP have gained enough to be in the game, but the only unequivocally good state for them is Tasmania. Elsewhere there have been some seats falling on whacking big swings while marginals fail to drop. ALP will be reasonably happy overall though may be ruing their underperformance in Victoria.
Windsor and Oakeshott didn't really get close to getting back in. McGowan is comfortably back, while Denison is clearly Wilkie's for as long as he wants it, and Katter can carry on his lifelong crusade against banana imports or whatever. Xenophon has at least one lower house seat (Mayo) and Grey is not totally out of the question.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 2, 2016 20:23:10 GMT
Tasmania is traditionally good for the ALP; the exception was 2013 which was a disaster. So it's a return to form rather than a good performance.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2016 20:41:15 GMT
Tasmania is traditionally good for the ALP; the exception was 2013 which was a disaster. So it's a return to form rather than a good performance. 2013 was certainly unusually bad, but few expected such a firm swing back. Bass was a particularly notable shellacking, though the departing member Andrew Nikolic was decidedly not to everyone's taste. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2016 21:06:17 GMT
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 2, 2016 21:07:40 GMT
I think it's quite probable than the next Parliament is dissolved before the end of the normal term.
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 2, 2016 21:12:14 GMT
Another mistake by the chattering classes: they said Malcolm Turnbull would be more popular with Australian voters than Tony Abbott. Turns out not to be the case.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 2, 2016 21:13:41 GMT
Did you mean to write Malcolm Fraser or Malcolm Turnbull? Same remark might apply to both, though in a different way.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 2, 2016 21:29:42 GMT
Another mistake by the chattering classes: they said Malcolm Turnbull would be more popular with Australian voters than Tony Abbott. Turns out not to be the case. I think they were right. Abbott would have lost decisively. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2016 21:57:25 GMT
Another mistake by the chattering classes: they said Malcolm Turnbull would be more popular with Australian voters than Tony Abbott. Turns out not to be the case. While Turnbull's ratings have declined since he became PM, they are still much better than Abbott's at the point he was deposed. Arguably the bigger problem is that much of the government's agenda is still in the image of Abbott. |
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 3, 2016 0:58:37 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2016 8:57:37 GMT
Labor has pulled ahead in 2PP nationwide
Australian Labor Party 50.23% 4,895,650
Liberal/National Coalition 49.77% 4,850,480
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Post by timrollpickering on Jul 3, 2016 10:01:41 GMT
I think it's quite probable than the next Parliament is dissolved before the end of the normal term. Which could bring back the problems of the 1963-1975 period when an early election for the Reps only put the two houses out of sync, causing the Senate to get more electorally detached and hostile. The will of the people of 1972 was frustrated by those of 1970 and 1967; the 1974 double dissolution was at a bad time of year and threatened to repeated the problem, the 1975 one wasn't much better and eventually the 1977 Reps election was called a year early to get the two realigned. The 1984 election was similarly called early ostensibly for this purpose. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2016 10:44:10 GMT
Melbourne Ports is one to watch that isn't appearing on uncertain lists. Currently showing ALP ahead on 2pp, but they could be overtaken by the Greens for the final two which will put the Liberals in a strong position. www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/mpor/ |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 3, 2016 10:48:40 GMT
The sitting MP (since 1998) is Michael Danby, who once employed as his assistant Adam Carr (aka Psephos) the election statistics guru. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 3, 2016 11:31:08 GMT
Mayo has voted for change by voting out its MP in favour of...er...his former chief of staff.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2016 20:41:44 GMT
ABC's current distribution of seats ("in doubt" seats in parentheses)
Labor 67( + 5)= 72
Coalition 65( + 6)= 71
Xenophon 1( + 1) = 2
Greens 1
KAP 1
Indies 2
Xenophon holding the balance of power.
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 3, 2016 21:09:50 GMT
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