Spanish General Election 2016

[Deleted]

To be held 26 June.

"After a second round of meetings with party leaders failed to produce an agreement, King Felipe VI decided that no political party has enough support to form a government and confirmed that elections would be held on 26 June."

www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/26/spain-faces-new-elections-june-parties-fail-to-form-government

[Deleted]

[neilm]

I'd have thought that the PP would have gone up by more than that. They've been quite good at stepping back and letting it look like the left can't agree.

[Deleted]

Apr 27, 2016 15:36:00 GMT neilm said:

I'd have thought that the PP would have gone up by more than that. They've been quite good at stepping back and letting it look like the left can't agree.

This is actually one of the best from the last couple of weeks, and its from 14/4, so a bit dated (failed to notice the date, it was the latest updated on Electrograph). The issues that made PP unpopular in the first place haven't gone away.

PP numbers in the most recent ones:
SigmaDos 29.5, 29.8
Netquest 27.3
NC Report 29.9
TNS Demoscopia 29.4

The most recent from NC Report (with or without Podemos-IU alliance)

[Deleted]

[Merseymike]

United Left and Podemos are cooperating this time which may boost their seats

[greenhert]

The final list of parties contesting this snap election has been released: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_general_election,_2016

The United Left-Podemos alliance (Unidad Podemos, meaning United We Can in Spanish) still looks likely to overtake the PSOE in seat terms, but it looks unlikely they can snatch pole position from the PP.

[Foggy]

May 28, 2016 23:29:26 GMT greenhert said:

The final list of parties contesting this snap election has been released: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_general_election,_2016

The United Left-Podemos alliance (Unidad Podemos, meaning United We Can in Spanish) still looks likely to overtake the PSOE in seat terms, but it looks unlikely they can snatch pole position from the PP.

I had read that there were financial and signature-based barriers to new parties standing, so I'm surprised that the list of candidacies is so long. Apparently is still has to be verified on Tuesday.

It's actually Unidos Podemos. 'Unidad' is a noun usually meaning 'unit', and very rarely translates as 'United'. I find it strange that IU-UP has agreed to these conditions. Often their lead candidate is 5th or 6th down the joint list, which means they'll again likely only win seats in Madrid province.

Rajoy has said he'll propose a Grand Coalition again after the elections, which can be taken as a concession that the PP is not going to win an overall majority. Sánchez assured the business community that there won't be a third general election in 12 months, but is under pressure himself from Andalusian President Susana Díez to somehow "win" (i.e. presumably either somehow lead the PSOE to largest-party status or otherwise become PM at the head of a progressive coalition). If anything, however, the PSOE and its allies are now in danger of losing second place – collectively – to the various groups under the Podemos banner, at least in terms of votes.

[Deleted]

Poll added. Comparisons since last year's election will be interesting.

[Foggy]

'Democracy and Freedom' are standing under the banner of CDC (Democratic Convergence of Catalonia) this time. I don't think the poll needs to be reset, though.

I have voted 'Other' since I'd probably go for PACMA if I were a Spaniard.

[therealriga]

May 29, 2016 21:39:43 GMT Foggy said:

I find it strange that IU-UP has agreed to these conditions. Often their lead candidate is 5th or 6th down the joint list, which means they'll again likely only win seats in Madrid province.

No, they'll do better than that. If the joint list just repeats the combined results of 2015, IU should win the following:

Seats 5, 9 and 11* in Madrid
Seat 5 in Valencia.
Seat 3 in Seville.*
S2 in Malaga.
S1 in Ciudad Real*
S2 in Alava*
S1 in Teruel*

Asterixed seats are gains which a joint list would have won last time.

The deal for Teruel if they win one seat (more is hugely unlikely) is for IU to resign their seat after 2 years so it goes to Podemos. In Zaragoza, IU have the 3rd place and there's a similar deal: if they only win 2 seats, the number 2 (Podemos) will resign after 2 years, thus giving IU the seat. That's already 10 seats.

Also, the joint list only needs a vote increase of a couple of percentage points to win the following seats for IU candidates:

Seat 2 In Cordoba, S3 in Cadiz, S3 in Asturias, S1 in Palencia.

That's 10-14 IU seats. Not a bad deal for a party that only won 2 last time.

[carlton43]

Not that keen but voted PP as not a time to piss about when so much at stake.

[Foggy]

May 30, 2016 11:26:24 GMT therealriga said:

May 29, 2016 21:39:43 GMT Foggy said:

I find it strange that IU-UP has agreed to these conditions. Often their lead candidate is 5th or 6th down the joint list, which means they'll again likely only win seats in Madrid province.

No, they'll do better than that. If the joint list just repeats the combined results of 2015, IU should win the following:

Seats 5, 9 and 11* in Madrid
Seat 5 in Valencia.
Seat 3 in Seville.*
S2 in Malaga.
S1 in Ciudad Real*
S2 in Alava*
S1 in Teruel*

Asterixed seats are gains which a joint list would have won last time.

The deal for Teruel if they win one seat (more is hugely unlikely) is for IU to resign their seat after 2 years so it goes to Podemos. In Zaragoza, IU have the 3rd place and there's a similar deal: if they only win 2 seats, the number 2 (Podemos) will resign after 2 years, thus giving IU the seat. That's already 10 seats.

Also, the joint list only needs a vote increase of a couple of percentage points to win the following seats for IU candidates:

Seat 2 In Cordoba, S3 in Cadiz, S3 in Asturias, S1 in Palencia.

That's 10-14 IU seats. Not a bad deal for a party that only won 2 last time.

Oh, right. Thanks. You've obviously looked into the details of the agreement, and at individual provinces, more closely than I have.

Even ignoring the dodgy dealings, which rely on the two parties not falling out before mid-2018 (there is a German MEP who promised to resign after a month if elected... he's still there 23 months later), it appears that 10+ seats are quite likely. However, just before the accord was signed, IU was experiencing an upturn in its poll ratings – mainly at the expense of Podemos. 

[therealriga]

May 30, 2016 22:18:38 GMT Foggy said:

May 30, 2016 11:26:24 GMT therealriga said:

No, they'll do better than that. If the joint list just repeats the combined results of 2015, IU should win the following:

Seats 5, 9 and 11* in Madrid
Seat 5 in Valencia.
Seat 3 in Seville.*
S2 in Malaga.
S1 in Ciudad Real*
S2 in Alava*
S1 in Teruel*

Asterixed seats are gains which a joint list would have won last time.

The deal for Teruel if they win one seat (more is hugely unlikely) is for IU to resign their seat after 2 years so it goes to Podemos. In Zaragoza, IU have the 3rd place and there's a similar deal: if they only win 2 seats, the number 2 (Podemos) will resign after 2 years, thus giving IU the seat. That's already 10 seats.

Also, the joint list only needs a vote increase of a couple of percentage points to win the following seats for IU candidates:

Seat 2 In Cordoba, S3 in Cadiz, S3 in Asturias, S1 in Palencia.

That's 10-14 IU seats. Not a bad deal for a party that only won 2 last time.

Oh, right. Thanks. You've obviously looked into the details of the agreement, and at individual provinces, more closely than I have.

Even ignoring the dodgy dealings, which rely on the two parties not falling out before mid-2018 (there is a German MEP who promised to resign after a month if elected... he's still there 23 months later), it appears that 10+ seats are quite likely. However, just before the accord was signed, IU was experiencing an upturn in its poll ratings – mainly at the expense of Podemos. 

Most polls in April showed IU fluctuating between 5 and 7%, which would have given them an estimated 5-8 seats, up from 2015, but still down on 2011, whereas the pact gives them 10+. I think that's a reasonable deal. I think they've already thought along the lines that the pact could break up or that parliament could be dissolved early, that's why the Aragon pacts were mutual with a Podemos member stepping down for an IU one and vice versa. IU have done similar pacts in the past in Aragon. In 2011 they had a pact with Chunta Aragonesista in Zaragoza, with the IU member stepping down after 20 months. So it's in IU's interest to honor them. Podemos have made a career so far out of forming a broad left front, so also have an interest in honoring any pacts, but they've little past form to go on, so we'll have to wait and see.

[Foggy]

May 30, 2016 23:01:58 GMT therealriga said:

A third general election in under 4 years would not go down well with either the Spanish electorate or the markets, but other than that, I take your point.

I didn't know that about the 2011 regional elections in Aragon. I thought the Chunta usually made a pact with the PSOE, whilst the other localists (Partido Aragonés?) align with the PP.

[neilm]

Chunta are aligned locally with IU, aren't they? They have (or at least had) a deal in the Aragonese cortes. Partido Aragones are aligned with the PP nationally but I don't think they are locally, beyond being in the local centre right grouping.

[therealriga]

Chunta ran a joint list with IU for the 2011 and 2015 national elections. For this election, they rejected offers from Podemos-IU and the PSOE to form a joint list and won't be standing. Locally and regionally, they run on their own and then usually ally with IU or PSOE, depending on the circumstances. That has included forming a joint group in the Aragonese parliament to get more speaking rights.

Partido Aragones have generally formed joint lists with PP nationally, but governed the region from 1999-2011 with the PSOE. Since then, they've also aligned with PP regionally and formed the regional government 2011-2015 with PP.

[Foggy]

It sounds like PAR is a bit like the PRC in Cantabria then, or perhaps the more recent FAC in Asturias, but without the inconvenience of a strong left-wing equivalent within the same region.

[observer]

Been out and about in Granada and surrounding villages today.

In Granada saw two stalls - one UPyD and one PP. The PP one featured the Cabinet's finance minister. Attempted to ask the minister why the Spanish government is threatening the UK over Brexit but was brushed off.

Later heard a PSOE loudspeaker van in Granada.

Went through three villages near Granada - all three had PSOE posters strung across town-centre roads.

Saw a poster for the Animal Rights Party and also a handful for Podemos/IU

[bolbridge]

Jun 16, 2016 20:51:04 GMT observer said:

Been out and about in Granada and surrounding villages today.

In Granada saw two stalls - one UPyD and one PP. The PP one featured the Cabinet's finance minister. Attempted to ask the minister why the Spanish government is threatening the UK over Brexit but was brushed off.

Later heard a PSOE loudspeaker van in Granada.

Went through three villages near Granada - all three had PSOE posters strung across town-centre roads.

Saw a poster for the Animal Rights Party and also a handful for Podemos/IU

UPyD?!? Why have those hasbeens not folded into C's?