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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2016 10:11:02 GMT
In Catalonia En Comú Podemos, Erc CatSí and CDC won 29 seats between them vs. 18 for the Catalan unionist parties, so the pressure for a Scotland-style independence referendum will continue. And presumably, most of those unionists are PSOE. No, its fairly evenly split between all three. PSC-PSOE 7 (-1), PP 6 (+1), C 5 (nc). They share 40.4% of the vote. resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO09999CM.htm?lang=es |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jun 27, 2016 17:49:37 GMT
It's En Comú Podem, not En Comú Podemos.
You're right that the CDC propping up a PP government is hard to envisage in the current political climate. I still can't see a ragtag coalition of PSOE, Unidos Podemos and Ciudadanos lasting long either though. The other option of PP + C's with the support of the PNV and the Canary Islands party still only adds up to exactly half the seats.
It now looks like turnout fell, but not by as much as feared and was still healthily close to 70%. The sources I was using last night either had the figures written the wrong way round, or I was reading them that way.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2016 18:09:11 GMT
You're right that the CDC propping up a PP government is hard to envisage in the current political climate. I still can't see a ragtag coalition of PSOE, Unidos Podemos and Ciudadanos lasting long either though. The other option of PP + C's with the support of the PNV and the Canary Islands party still only adds up to exactly half the seats. It now looks like turnout fell, but not by as much as feared and was still healthily close to 70%. The sources I was using last night either had the figures written the wrong way round, or I was reading them that way. The option is PSOE + C with outside support from Podemos, not PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos. PP + C would jeopardize C's credibility as an anti-corruption party, especially with PP in such a dominant position. So even if they had a couple of extra seats that wouldn't be an attractive opportunity for C. The balance of power between the two parties would need to be quite different for that. They are probably relieved this option isn't on the table. There are no good options, but a third election isn't attractive either, so we will get one of the "bad" ones. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2016 8:45:00 GMT
PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain. Pedro Sanchez has always been adamant he wont cooperate with PP, so not surprising, but it does make it difficult. A technocratic government might be in the cards.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2016 9:49:28 GMT
On the first ballot of an investiture you need 176 votes to form a government, but on a subsequent one you only need a plurality instead of majority. Meaning abstentions are important.
Alberto Rivera has said Javier Maroto and Fernando Martinez Maillo would both be acceptable as PP PM candidates. Maillo criticized Rivera for even bringing his name up. Though whether C really wants to be "trapped" as junior partners in a PP government remains to be seen (they would likely be "Clegged"). A grand PSOE-C-PP coalition would be less risky for them, but Sanchez has repeated PSOE wont back any PP led government (or abstain in a vote on one). So the PM needs to be a technocrat.
One small but potentially important detail is that Nueva Canaria - a leftist regionalist party, that ran with the PSOE, but doesn't answer to its whip, has a seat. So PSOE only has 84 seats under its whip. NC wont support Rajoy, but may accept others against They have promised to back Pedro Sanchez on the first vote, but not the subsequent.
Its hard to see a centre-right coalition with regionalist support. In recent years PP has build itself up as anti-regionalist. C is anti-Catalanist and against the economic "regime" in the Basque Country, which is basically the holy grail of the PNV. The Canarians are pragmatic pork barrelers, but there are only two of them.
CDC won't do anything without a referendum anyway, and neither PP nor PSOE will deliver it. PSOE's Federal Committee has banned deals with Catalan separatist parties.
It might very well end up with a technocratic government.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jun 28, 2016 22:21:41 GMT
One small but potentially important detail is that Nueva Canaria - a leftist regionalist party, that ran with the PSOE, but doesn't answer to its whip, has a seat. So PSOE only has 84 seats under its whip. NC wont support Rajoy, but may accept others against They have promised to back Pedro Sanchez on the first vote, but not the subsequent. Its hard to see a centre-right coalition with regionalist support. In recent years PP has build itself up as anti-regionalist. C is anti-Catalanist and against the economic "regime" in the Basque Country, which is basically the holy grail of the PNV. The Canarians are pragmatic pork barrelers, but there are only two of them. CDC won't do anything without a referendum anyway, and neither PP nor PSOE will deliver it. PSOE's Federal Committee has banned deals with Catalan separatist parties. It might very well end up with a technocratic government. Despite the apparent lack of agreement in terms of grammatical number, the party's name is in fact Nueva Canaria s. They are an offshoot of the Coalición Canaria. It is a silly arrangement for the PSOE to agree to. The PP does the same thing with the UPN, FAC and the Partido Aragonés, but there seems to be little question that their MPs will vote for Rajoy when the time comes. The " régimen foral" in the Basque Country and Navarre is both a matter of historical tradition and protected by the Constitution. It is madness for Ciudadanos to oppose it. If anything, Catalonia and some other regions should be given the same taxation powers. When did the PSOE Federal Committee decide this?! The PSC was in coalition with separatist parties from 2003 to 2010. A technocratic government sounds a bit unSpanish to me. It's more like the sort of thing the Belgians or Italians would do. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2016 22:32:36 GMT
One small but potentially important detail is that Nueva Canaria - a leftist regionalist party, that ran with the PSOE, but doesn't answer to its whip, has a seat. So PSOE only has 84 seats under its whip. NC wont support Rajoy, but may accept others against They have promised to back Pedro Sanchez on the first vote, but not the subsequent. Its hard to see a centre-right coalition with regionalist support. In recent years PP has build itself up as anti-regionalist. C is anti-Catalanist and against the economic "regime" in the Basque Country, which is basically the holy grail of the PNV. The Canarians are pragmatic pork barrelers, but there are only two of them. CDC won't do anything without a referendum anyway, and neither PP nor PSOE will deliver it. PSOE's Federal Committee has banned deals with Catalan separatist parties. It might very well end up with a technocratic government. Despite the apparent lack of agreement in terms of grammatical number, the party's name is in fact Nueva Canaria s. They are an offshoot of the Coalición Canaria. It is a silly arrangement for the PSOE to agree to. The PP does the same thing with the UPN, FAC and the Partido Aragonés, but there seems to be little question that their MPs will vote for Rajoy when the time comes. The " régimen foral" in the Basque Country and Navarre is both a matter of historical tradition and protected by the Constitution. It is madness for Ciudadanos to oppose it. If anything, Catalonia and some other regions should be given the same taxation powers. When did the PSOE Federal Committee decide this?! The PSC was in coalition with separatist parties from 2003 to 2010. A technocratic government sounds a bit un-Spanish to me. It's more like the sort of thing the Belgians or Italians would do. A few days after the previous election. A technocratic government may be un-Spanish, but its considered the most likely option by my Spanish contacts (political nerds). There aren't really that many other options and the external pressure to find a solution will be massive. |
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Post by Foggy on Jun 28, 2016 22:36:29 GMT
Oh, I hadn't realised that. Thanks for the info. 'A few days after the previous election' was Christmas, and I was in Germany with little to no access to non-German news.
'External pressure', eh? So all that crowing by the PP about how Spain had kept its "economic sovereignty" (because they did what the Troika would've wanted voluntarily instead of waiting to have it forced upon them as part of a bailout deal) will mean very little when Spain effectively loses its democratic sovereignty, which should be much more important.
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Post by neilm on Jun 29, 2016 10:04:54 GMT
Nueva Canarias isn't a CC offshoot, is it? They're pretty left of centre whereas the Canarian Coalition is right of centre (but likes pork barrel alliances with whoever is running the show in Madrid). Agrupacion Herrena Independiente is a tiny party that's basically a CC offshoot.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2016 10:15:14 GMT
Nueva Canarias isn't a CC offshoot, is it? They're pretty left of centre whereas the Canarian Coalition is right of centre (but likes pork barrel alliances with whoever is running the show in Madrid). Agrupacion Herrena Independiente is a tiny party that's basically a CC offshoot. It was founded on Gran Canaria by Roman Rodriguez, former President of the Canary Islands, after the split of former members of the Nationalist Canarian Initiative (ICAN) from the Canary Coalition. Which gradually united with various group like Initiative by La Palma (INPA), and the Nationalist Party of Lanzarote (PNL) and on Fuerteventura formed New Fuerteventura-New Canarias with former members and supporters of Majorera Assembly and Independent Antigua. So uniting various small island parties with a lefty breakaway from CC. |
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Post by neilm on Jun 29, 2016 10:16:51 GMT
Aah interesting, I stand corrected.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 30, 2016 15:18:11 GMT
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Post by Foggy on Jun 30, 2016 19:56:02 GMT
Quite the spike in turnout in Lugo and O(u)rense provinces there! I presume the comparison map for Unidos Podemos relates to the combined vote share of both Podemos and the IU back in December?
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 1, 2016 9:45:51 GMT
I presume the comparison map for Unidos Podemos relates to the combined vote share of both Podemos and the IU back in December? Yes, indeed, IU is included as well as MES (BalearicIslands). |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 1, 2016 9:56:01 GMT
Quite the spike in turnout in Lugo and O(u)rense provinces there! Astonishing, right. Rajoy's HomeTurf is Pontevedra. Partly it can be explained by the prospect of SeatShifts? |
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Post by Foggy on Jul 1, 2016 21:04:38 GMT
Quite the spike in turnout in Lugo and O(u)rense provinces there! Astonishing, right. Rajoy's HomeTurf is Pontevedra. Partly it can be explained by the prospect of SeatShifts? Rajoy has been declared persona non grata by Pontevedra City Council, and was punched there during the December election campaign. He has made Madrid his home turf for at least the past dozen years and essentially left his Galician roots behind. He even spells his surnames the Castillian way (should be 'Raxoi Brei'). In terms of psephology, Lugo and Ourense only have 4 seats each, so it takes a larger shift in vote percentages for seats to change hands under the d'Hondt method. There was an effective PP gain from Podemos in the latter province, but that was down to transfers from Ciudadanos to the PP since 2015. Rajoy had even said towards the end of the campaign that in more than half the provinces, a vote for C's was essentially useless. The only other seat to change hands in Galicia was indeed Cidadáns losing their only seat in the region, in A Coruña. |
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Post by Tangent on Jul 1, 2016 21:42:47 GMT
Sounds like the dogs dinner we currently have in terms of local and regional governance This model of 'rolling devolution', with regions with a more distinct identity and secessionist impulses receiving more powers than others, strongly influenced Labour in the 1990s when working out the mechanics of devolution. You could see how it was intended to be rolled out across the UK. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 15, 2016 6:16:00 GMT
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jul 28, 2016 18:13:15 GMT
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