Spanish General Election 2016

[Deleted]

TV coverage:
www.rtve.es/noticias/mas-24/

[Deleted]

GAD3 exit poll :

PP 123
Podemos 88
PSOE 85
C 31

So just a few seats short of a Podemos+PSOE majority.

[dizz]

El Pais:

elpais.com/elpais/inenglish.html

enjoy.

Looks like a hung parliament again with PSOE beating Podemos & both PP + C's & PSOE + Podemos not adding-up to a majority.

[mrpastelito]

Exit polls 20 seats out on Podemos? Bizarre.

[therealriga]

58% counted.

PP 134 (+11)
PSOE 91 (+1)
U-Podemos 71 (=)
C's 29 (-11)
Oth 25

A predictably bad result for C's. Most of their voters last time voted expecting them to be the smaller player and moderating force in a PP-led coalition, only to find them negotiating with the PSOE when the arithmetic didn't work with the PP. A lot of their voters seem to have drifted back to the PP, whose position hasn't really altered due to lack of allies. A pretty bad result for Podemos too due to the joint list with IU. The unified list only had to repeat the result of last time to win 10 extra seats, so in reality they've lost seats and, with opinion polls and even the exit poll showing them overtaking the PSOE, that'll be a massive disappointment. The PSOE can breathe a sigh of relief at holding their position as the second force, but face the same quandry as in December: grand coalition with Rajoy and lose voters to Podemos or ally with the latter and concede some of the nationalist parties demands for their support, specifically a referendum on Catalan independence, which won't go down well with the base. Ultimately, this result leaves Spain exactly where it has been since December and is another blow to a Europe still dealing with the Brexit aftershock.

[Deleted]

Jun 26, 2016 20:10:04 GMT mrpastelito said:

Exit polls 20 seats out on Podemos? Bizarre.

Depends on whether the areas counted are representative. 

[dizz]

PP now on 136 & C's on 30. If they get to 170 then alliance with PNV & Canary party produces 176....

[Deleted]

Teruel - first completed province:

PP 41.3 (+4.9) 2 (-)
PSOE 26.3 (+0.6) 1 (-)
Podemos 16.7 (+1.4, or down a fair bit if you add IU, though IU was also in alliance with a regionalist party last time) 0 (-)
C's 13.2 (-1.5) 0 (-)

[Deleted]

With the exit polls that much off there will likely be accusations of rigging.

[dizz]

Jun 26, 2016 20:24:56 GMT dizz said:

PP now on 136 & C's on 30. If they get to 170 then alliance with PNV & Canary party produces 176....

PP & C's now on 169 (137 & 32).

[Deleted]

PP 137
C 32

PSOE 85
Podemos Unidos 71

169/156

Others 25

Hung parliament again.

(...)

Minor parties:

Erc CatSí (Republican Left of Catalonia–Catalonia Yes) leftist Catalan nationalists 9
CDC (Democratic Convergence of Catalonia) centre-right Catalan nationalists 8
PNV (Basque Nationalist Party) Conservative Basque nationalists/regionalists 5
EH Bildu (Basque Country Unite) Leftist Basque nationalists 2
CC-PNC (Canarian Coalition-Canarian Nationalist Party) centre-right Canarian nationalists/regionalists 1

[mrpastelito]

Jun 26, 2016 20:55:53 GMT @odo said:

With the exit polls that much off there will likely be accusations of rigging.

I wouldn't put it past the PP tbh. An outfit as utterly corrupt as them certainly wouldn't have any qualms if the opportunity arose.

[Deleted]

Its only 175 seats to the non-Catalan centre-right, so basically its either a Grand Coalition or Podemos-PSOE-C... None of which seem possible

[Davıd Boothroyd]

So calling a second general election after the first one ended in stalemate has ended in stalemate.

[mrpastelito]

I wouldn't recommend it, but traditionally the Spanish way of conflict resolution has been civil war, at least since the Napoleonic wars.

[Foggy]

^ Try the Interior Ministry website, if you can read Spanish.

It looks like turnout actually went up in the end despite reports of lower participation rates earlier in the day. Unidos Podemos got the same number of seats as IU-UP and Podemos combined last time, but far fewer votes. The PSOE had a net loss of five, but look like comparative winners by comfortably remaining in second place. Ciudadanos are down 8, and the only other change at all in the lower house is the PNV's loss of 1 seat.

In the Senate, Gipuzkoa was the only province to produce a 2:2 split as the PP increased their overall majority. They'll certainly lead the next government, but it's not clear how and when a pact will be formed unless Rajoy and all those with a stench of corruption stand down. A PP + C's coalition with the support of CDC is actually viable this time.

[Deleted]

Jun 27, 2016 2:27:46 GMT Foggy said:

^ Try the Interior Ministry website, if you can read Spanish.

It looks like turnout actually went up in the end despite reports of lower participation rates earlier in the day. Unidos Podemos got the same number of seats as IU-UP and Podemos combined last time, but far fewer votes. The PSOE had a net loss of five, but look like comparative winners by comfortably remaining in second place. Ciudadanos are down 8, and the only other change at all in the lower house is the PNV's loss of 1 seat.

In the Senate, Gipuzkoa was the only province to produce a 2:2 split as the PP increased their overall majority. They'll certainly lead the next government, but it's not clear how and when a pact will be formed unless Rajoy and all those with a stench of corruption stand down. A PP + C's coalition with the support of CDC is actually viable this time.

Its probably not possible to root out the corrupt ("all with a stench of corruption") from PP - the culture of corruption is too deeply entrenched for that to be feasible. PP relies on electoral support of pensioners (with a high turnout) quite tolerant of corruption and the only "solution" seems to wait for their core vote to simply die off and the party collapse. At which point a new dominant party on the centre-right can evolve - or two if C survives. 

A PP government with Catalan support while the independence project is still on seems extremely far fetched. It would be like a Tory government propped up by a more right wing version of the SNP (an alliance of Tories and "Tartan Tories").

A third election is still an option, though they will of course try to avoid it. 

[Deleted]

In Catalonia En Comú Podemos, Erc CatSí and CDC won 29 seats between them vs. 18 for the Catalan unionist parties, so the pressure for a Scotland-style independence referendum will continue.

[Deleted]

With Podemos failing to get a breakthrough there may be a chance that the moderates/pragmatists under Íñigo Errejón manage to sideline egomaniac hipster Pablo Iglesias and agree to support the "reformist" coalition between PSOE and C, which Rivera and Sanchez had all but agreed on.

That is probably the best option.

As an anti-corruption party it was always hard for C to support a PP government and Rajoy will be emboldened by this victory.

[greenhert]

According to the final results, PP are up 14 seats, PSOE are down 5 seats, C's are down 8 seats, and the Basque Nationalists are down 1. Otherwise, no change-perhaps a grand coalition might occur this time only because of a lack of viable alternatives.