Icelandic presidential election 2016

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To be held June 25 in one round and can be won on a plurality, so it could be decided on as low as 25-30%, but likely won't since the vote will probably coalesce around two candidates.

President Ólaf­ur Ragn­ar Grimsson has this evening decided to reverse his decision of stepping down and will run for an unprecedented sixth term. He is up against the author and conservationist Árni Snær Magnússon, who will likely have a broad left/centre-left coalition behind him. But more importantly this will be the old boys network and traditional power politics vs. "new Iceland" and those that think such a small country could be run with a much greater element of citizens participation. 

A veritable clown car of 16 candidates are running  (though a handful may fail to collect enough signatures) with lots of actual clowns in it, but so far only three candidates with significant support. The businesswoman and "feminine values" investor Halla Tomasdóttir is the third.

4-5 potential candidates are still considering, but at least a couple of them will refrain now. 

Ólaf­ur Ragn­ar Grimsson was once the chairman of the left wing Peoples Alliance, but has been on a long journey since then and his current support will mostly be on the right, but its a bit more complex than just left/right. He has politicized the traditionally ceremonial office to an unprecedented degree, and since the constitution gives the president significant power, but the tradition is to refrain from using them and act through moral authority how the office should be interpreted will be one of the main themes of the campaign.

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Former stock broker and tax dodger turned Danish hotelier Guðmundur Franklín Jónsson, who was founder and chairman of the now defunct faux environmentalist xenophobic Libertarian party the Right Greens has decided to withdraw his candidacy and endorse ORG, who I am sure is delighted... Well, one less clown in the clown car. 15 left.

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Apart from the three candidates with actual support there are currently 12 10 others running, this is a big difference to previous election were the maximum have so far been six candidates. Most are out to promote themselves, but a few are serious.

There are 4-5 more potential candidates with a genuine chance, but a number of them are unlikely to run now that the incumbent seeks reelected (those are mentioned in the Icelandic politics thread). 

The twelve "also rans":

Hrannar Pétursson: Sociologist, communications consultant and former Human Ressource- and Marketing Director for Icelandic Vodafone. Supported by former PM SDG and parts of the Progress Party, which doesn't exactly increase his chances. As ORG is closely allied with parts of the Progress Party he may withdraw, or he may not after the SDG/ORG conflict.


Idealists:

Vigfús Bjarni Albertsson: Hospital chaplain. Humanism, a caring society and Christian values. 

Guðrún Margrét Pálsdóttir: Nurse and founder of ABC Barnahjálp, an aid organization focusing on children in Asia and Africa. Her brother says she is the "Icelandic Mother Teresa" and she has certainly done a lot of admirable things, but hard to see her get anywhere in this race.

Heimir Örn Hólmarsson: Electrical engineer and project manager. Campaign pitch: "I am a patriot and will work hard". Safeguard human rights for minorities. Improved ethical standards in the Icelandic administration, better mental health care, human rights and full access to participate in society for disabled people. Eradicate prejudice against minorities and immorality.


Clowns and self-promoters:

Ari Jósepsson: Self-proclaimed "YouTube star".

Ástþór Magnússon: Businessman and former peace activist. A perennial candidate, who has run for president in 1996, 2004, and 2012. Campaigns on getting the UN HQ relocated to Reykjavík, which according to him would boost the Icelandic GDP with 35%.

Elísabet Jökulsdóttir: Author and freelance journalist. It might be a bit harsh to put her in this category, but it looks like mere self-promotion. She is the daughter of a first class playwright, but not a big talent herself.

Hildur Þórðardóttir, healer. Nuff said.

Sturla Jónsson: Truck driver, crash era protester, former parliamentary candidate and chairman of the party Sturla Jónsson, formerly known as the Move Forward Party.

Bæring Ólafsson: Former COO of Coca Cola Bottlers Philippines. Retired businessman in need of something to do, so why not run for president? Abstained from running in 2012 when ORG declared "out of respect for the office", and may withdraw again.

Benedikt Kristján Mewes: German born dairy engineer and mailman, who wants to be the first gay president.

Magnus Ingi Magnússon: Restaurateur and caterer. Marketing stunt.

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Apr 18, 2016 20:24:24 GMT @pjones said:

Apr 18, 2016 20:17:33 GMT @odo said:

Apart from the three candidates with actual support there are currently 12 others running, this is a big difference to previous election were the maximum have so far been six candidates. 

If there are fifteen candidates and they need a minimum of 1,500 nominees each then in order for all of them to get on the ballot they would need nearly 10% of the Icelandic electorate to nominate someone.

Yes, 22,500 signatures from 240,000 voters. Some of the "jokers" will fail to get them.

[Deleted]

Reposting this from the Icelandic politics thread (slightly edited). 

The "possibles" people are waiting for in the presidential race (with a very broad and simplistic left/right definition). 

Left:
Össur Skarphéðinsson - former Minister of Foreign Affairs from the Social Democratic Alliance.
Stefán Jón Hafstein - leader of the public development aid organisation.
Ellen Calmon - Chairwoman of The Organisation of Disabled in Iceland (Öryrkjabandalands Íslands) (a bit second tier compared to the rest, but has some support).

Right:
Ólafur Jóhann Ólafsson - Executive Vice President at Time Warner and acclaimed author (and originally physicist - a "good at everything" type, lives in New York).
Guðrún Nordal - Professor in Icelandic, Oxford educated expert in Icelandic medieval literature and director of the Arni Magnusson Institute for Icelandic Studies (only option in the "Conservative intellectual" category, fewer of those in Iceland than there used to be). Sits on all sort of boards for cultural institutions etc.

If it hasn't been for the Panama Papers affair former Minister of Education Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir from IP would have run, but her husband was in the Kaupthing leadership and got some personal loans from the bank "erased" shortly before it collapsed, and with the anti-speculation mood and the "unethical spouse" theme from SDG and wifey it should be certain she won't run (she would be humiliated if she tried).


Read more: vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/6753/icelandic-politics#ixzz46DRspWQt

[finsobruce]

Apr 18, 2016 19:45:02 GMT @odo said:

Former stock broker and tax dodger turned Danish hotelier Guðmundur Franklín Jónsson, who was founder and chairman of the now defunct faux environmentalist xenophobic Libertarian party the Right Greens has decided to withdraw his candidacy and endorse ORG, who I am sure is delighted... Well, one less clown in the clown car. 15 left.

This reminds me a bit about the joke from the 70s that  in the US every citizen has the chance to be leader of the country and in Italy it is compulsory.

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One of the idealists are out. Hospital chaplain Vig­fús Bjarni Al­berts­son says the rules of game are changed and that its now a political struggle (rather than electing a moral leader). He ends with a rebuke of those that drafted ORG:

"Today, the campaign turned into a political struggle. Democracy is not about the longest experience in the office. Democracy is not to ensure some kind of false sense of security for the Icelandic nation. We know nothing about what happens tomorrow in our lives. If someone thinks he can guarantee the security of the Icelandic nation we might ask: When will we finally be safe? What is acceptable as endpoint (level of) security? It is a major responsibility to raise fear, might all those who put themselves forward as candidates for the highest office of the nation always keep this in mind. The nation should not hold fear - not before and not now."

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Some rather clear critique of ÓRG from the moderate wing of IP, which is interesting given that urban europhile centre-right voters may very well be the swing vote between him and Magnason. 

ÓRG was born in Ísafjörður in the remote Westfjords and was originally in the (rural based) Progress Party, then switched to the anti-NATO/pro-neutrality Union of Liberals and Leftists in 1974, before he joined the left wing People's Alliance in 1977, which he chaired to 1987-95. After he won the presidency in 1996 he then grradually moved back towards the Progress Party in the 00s and his network is today thoroughly on the right.
The red line in his ideological journey has been Icelandic Nationalism and Iceland First sentiments, resulting in a strong europhobia (and he even briefly flirted with the idea of an alliance with Russia when Western aid wasn't forthcoming in the desperate post-crash days in 2008). As IP has always identified as the Atlanticist, pro-Western party and the bulk of it's moderate wing is europhile he has never been their guy, although the europhobic IP right wing, financed by the “quota kings” and big fishing companies, see him as their best bid as they have no viable candidate themselves.

Former Prime Minister and IP leader Þorsteinn Pálsson:

"Is it not possible to replace the President when people gather for peaceful demonstrations on Austurvöllur according to their constitutionally protected rights? Is it not possible to replace the President if government formation may be difficult for the next Althing? If we come to the conclusion that this is indeed the case we should change the constitution and elect a president for life. (…) this is of course no valid argument and I have absolutely no faith that the president, in fact, believes in this argument. This is such an absurd argument that I do not think he believes it himself. I think his desire is to continue in the office and there are enough people in the community who support him in this, and then it is only up to a democratic choice. I think it is much more sensible and more natural to just see the thing for what it is. And not come up with such childish and disagreeable explanations. “


IP parliamentary group chairman Ragnheiður Ríkharðsdóttir:

"There are many who are competent enough to defend the Constitution and the interests of the citizens. And I do not think that the arguments which he puts forward are valid. I think it would have been better, if he wanted to remain on Bessastaðir, that he had told so in his New Year’s speech."

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Ástþór Magnússon ad - if you could win the presidency on sheer persistency he would be a shoo-in. 

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Both his main challengers are going after ORG.

Andri Snær Magnason:

"Democracy is a forum where new and old ideas meet, the result is never predictable. The idea was that the people themselves could choose one of its members to take temporary responsibility instead of relying on a king for life. Democracy took away tribal dynasty and genetic cord. The idea was to establish a healthy relationship with authority, because there is something in our genes that desires security and fear of the unknown. "

Also says the uncertainty about the role and powers of the President of Iceland calls for a new and improved constitution. "Democracy is not a given but something that people need to fight for and important offices must not be the personal domain of individuals."

"There is uncertainty as opposites meet and the unexpected happens. This uncertainty is the essence of life, another name for the future and we must meet it open and fearless."

Halla Tómasdóttir says Grimsson by his decision aims to join the ranks of the most "amazing" presidents of the world such as Mugabe. She finds little justification for the Presidents claim that he is running to counter uncertainty in the community and says he should have shown other candidates respect by being honest about his motives.

"I believe that his decision will sharpen the lines in this campaign. This is his democratic right because we haven't been able to set limits on how long the President of Iceland can sit. But I'm not exactly proud that a sitting president aims to join the ranks of dictators like Mugabe."

She shrugs off his justification of his candidacy by referring to the uncertainties in the Icelandic society and says he should rather be honest and show respect for others by recognizing that he simply wants to continue as president.

"I think he has been saying these things since I was in the sixth grade. I can remember that he spoke of the "uncertainty and fear" when I was in sixth grade (and he was Minister of Finance). I am fifty now. I think he has had a lot of opportunities during that time to show what he can contribute. Now is the time for a new tune to replace the old one and look towards the future."

Incumbent presidents are generally treated with great respect in Iceland (and have only been challenged in 1988, 2004 and 2012, the latter being the only one with serious challengers), but it seems that ORG has forfeited that respect by going back on his word a second time.

It will be interesting if Halla T. is prepared to go full negative and how the voters will respond if she does. There are lots of dirt on ORG from shamelessly promoting the "financial Vikings" in the pre-crash era, over his 2004 attempt to block media legislation hostile to the company that controlled half the Icelandic media (and where his daughter had a senior position), over semi-racialist remarks, to his "let's lease Keflavik to the Russians" remark, and his wife's financial affairs etc.

No incumbent has ever lost an Icelandic presidential election, but then again no incumbent has ever ran for a sixth time after going back on his promise to retire twice. The result will mostly depend if the vote coalesce around ASM (last time the main challenger got a third of the vote and picked up votes from people preferring others, and this effect needs to be stronger this time). Halla T. must try to make it a three way race by poaching younger centre-right voters from the segment broadly satisfied with ORG and shake his high favorability ratings. Though most likely she will de facto be a spoiler for ASM, but hopefully we will soon get some polling to tell us more.

Its easy to identify the two core electorates:

Centre and centre-right rural/small town people aged 50+ for ORG and centre-left voters in Greater Reykjavík aged 18-40 for ASM, but harder to place people outside of these two groups. HT appeals to voters that want a woman, someone with experience from the private sector and a less high brow profile than the others (though all previous Icelandic presidents have been intellectuals in one way or the other, with the possible exception of the lawyer, diplomat and politician Svein Björnsson, who was the first, but he was definitely also a man of significant learning).

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Bæring Ólafsson has withdrawn, simply stating that he will not run against a sitting president (as he decided in 2012), but dissatisfied with ORG not being honest about his intentions. 

The clown car is getting less densely packed and a couple of others will fail to get the necessary signatures incl. our German dairy engineer, who says he is "struggling" to get signatures (somehow people seem to think being the first gay president isn't enough of a platform.. maybe he should add first foreign born president ).

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ÓRG has repeatedly stated that neither he, nor his wife have contacts to tax shelters, but rival candidate Ástþór Magnússon has tipped Kjarninn and The Reykjavik Grapevine that ÓRGs Israeli wife Dorrit Moussaieff does in fact have connections to at least one offshore account.

The family business is organized in the British company Moussaieff Jewelers Ltd. (MJL). Her parents were the main owners of Lasca Finance Limited, which is registered in the British Virgin Islands, and it was paid interests by MJL from at least 2000 until 2005.

In 2006 Lasca was replaced by a new Hong Kong based company Moussaieff Ltd. with Dorrit Moussaieff ’s mother as the sole director and shareholder, and active through at least the spring of 2015. While not defined as a tax shelter by Icelandic law Hong Kong does rank 2nd on the Financial Secrecy Index.

Obviously Dorrit Moussaieff is not responsible for her parents, but when Dorrit M. changed her legal residence from Iceland to the UK in 2013 she told reporters that she "ran" MJL. An annual report from MJL in 2015 lists her mother as the managing director, but Alisa Moussaieff is 86, and it sounds more credible her 66 year old daughter is in charge.

(her dad Shlomo Moussaieff died in July last year aged 90)

grapevine.is/news/2016/04/25/president-connected-to-panama-papers/

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Lots of exposures of prominent businessmen - some of them affiliated with the Progress Party (among the current director of the party administration) - having tax haven companies. The president and Dorrit M. denies any knowledge of tax haven companies etc.

Ástþór Magnússon continues his crusade (but given its Ástþór Magnússon it remains to be seen whether ordinary people take him seriously). On a press conference yesterday he said that:

"Now we see that the country's reputation has been damaged significantly due to cases of corruption. The nation's leaders are appearing in the international media and lying through their teet. This made the former Prime Minister resign and in the wake of it foreign media compared Iceland to a banana republic. What do the media do when they realize the nation's president peddled more lies in an interview on CNN? Does the image of the banana republic of Iceland gets perfected this summer with the reelection of this man or are the people finally fed up with the excesses? " (the expression he used means "close to vomiting")

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First poll. As expected ORG starts out with a solid lead. Conducted 22-26 April (partly before Bæring Olafsson withdrew). 

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MMR hasn't published subsamples, but Morgunbladid writes that ORGs support is "disproportionately located in the countryside, while Andri Snaer Magnason polls relatively higher in Reykjavík, and Halla Tómasdóttir also polls better in the capital than in the regions." (...) "ORG has proportionally more support among those who have less education and lower incomes, while Andri Snaer Magnason has proportionally more support among those who have higher salaries and higher education, and people in the professions are most likely to be supporters of Andra Snaer Discussion. Halla Tómasdóttir has considerably more support from women than men, and managers and senior officials are proportionately much more likely to be supporters of Halla compared to people in other kinds of work."

None of the above is particularly surprising, but Andri Snær needs to attract Pirate voting working class and lower middle class voters if he wants to win. Mobilizing the protest vote will be crucial for him.

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Hrannar Pétursson has withdrawn, so down to 11 now, of which only 4-5 are serious. This likely means PP is now united behind ORG, even though Hrannar Pétursson chose not to endorse anyone.

Bene­dikt Kristján Mewes has confirmed that he sees no possibility of collecting enough signatures, but hasn't withdrawn (though he is of course utterly irrelevant).

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I am increasingly starting to think that none of the many people saying they are "considering" a run will end up running. It mostly looks like self promotion and attention whoring among middle aged academics with a certain standing in the community. For what its worth the latest "considerer" is Berglind Ásgeirsdóttir, Iceland's ambassador to France, who says she has received a large numbers of calls to run, especially from women.

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Subsamples from the poll for gender, age, residence, household income and education (I think its possible to make sense of most of it as it without knowing Icelandic as income and education is in hierarchical order). Omitted occupation because its not possible to deduct the meaning of that one, but here is a link:
mmr.is/frettir/birtar-nieurstoeeur/539-fylgi-forsetaframbjodenda



Residence (búseta) is divided into capital region/countryside. Karl is man and kona is woman. Starfsnám is vocational education.

University educated is the only subgroup won by ASM.

[Deleted]

Worth noticing that ORG has a higher share among young people than those aged 30-50, likely because Halla T. doesn't appeal to them. Her claim of being the candidate of "new Iceland" seems unappealing. Andre Snær has a roughly even age distribution apart from retirees.

[Devil Wincarnate]

By accident or design, ORG seems to be a benign Urho Kekkonen de nos jours!