Icelandic presidential election 2016

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With more Reykjavik votes coming in Doddsson is now in fourth. Andri Snær and Halla T. tie for second in Reykjavik North 25/25.

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Gudni Th. has held his victory speech (and cut his victory cake... a bit weird), while Halla T. has conceded. So congrats to a fellow historian, but she did make it a lot closer than the polls predicted.

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Doddsson did finish last (among the serious contenders).



The results for the minor candidates:

Sturla Jónsson 3.5
Elísabet Jökulsdóttir 0.7
Ástþór Magnússon 0.3
Guðrún Margrét Pálsdóttir 0.3
Hildur Þórðardóttir 0.2

Turnout was 75.7% - up from 69.3% last time.

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Gudni Th. turned 48 today (which explains the cake). Winning the presidency is a nice birthday present. Double congratulations.

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Final result:

Guðni Th. Jóhannesson 71,356 (39.1)
Halla Tómasdóttir 50,995 (27.9)
Andri Snær Magnason 26,037 (14.3)
Davíð Oddsson 25,108 (13.7)
Sturla Jónsson 6,446 (3.5)

Below 1,500

Elísabet Jökulsdóttir 1,280 (0.7)
Ástþór Magnússon 615 (0.3)
Guðrún Margrét Pálsdóttir 477 (0.3)
Hildur Þórðardóttir 294 (0.2)

The worst result for any candidate had previously been Hannes Bjarnason geting 0.98% in 2012, so no less than four candidates managed to break this "record". Hannes got 1,556 votes so this is the first time any candidate has gotten fewer votes than the 1,500 signatures required to run.

Reykjavík North:
Guðni Th. Jóhannesson: 36.0
Andri Snær Magnason: 23.8
Halla Tómasdóttir: 22.0
Davíð Oddsson: 12.9
Sturla Jónsson: 3.4
Elísabet Jökulsdóttir: 1.2
Ástþór Magnússon: 0.3
Guðrún Margrét Pálsdóttir: 0.3
Hildur Þórðardóttir: 0.2

Reykjavík South:
Guðni Th. Jóhannesson: 38.5
Halla Tómasdóttir: 23.5
Andri Snær Magnason: 19.1
Davíð Oddsson: 13.6
Sturla Jónsson: 3.7
Elísabet Jökulsdóttir: 0.9
Ástþór Magnússon: 0.3
Guðrún Margrét Pálsdóttir: 0.3
Hildur Þórðardóttir: 0.2

South-West:
Guðni Th. Jóhannesson: 39.9
Halla Tómasdóttir: 28.9
Davíð Oddsson: 13.9
Andri Snær Magnason: 12.9
Sturla Jónsson: 3.7
Elísabet Jökulsdóttir: 0.5
Ástþór Magnússon: 0.3
Guðrún Margrét Pálsdóttir: 0.2
Hildur Þórðardóttir: 0.1

South:
Guðni Th. Jóhannesson: 35.2
Halla Tómasdóttir: 34.2
Davíð Oddsson: 16.7
Andri Snær Magnason: 7.3
Sturla Jónsson: 5.1
Elísabet Jökulsdóttir: 0.7
Ástþór Magnússon: 0.4
Guðrún Margrét Pálsdóttir: 0.3
Hildur Þórðardóttir: 0.2

North-West:
Guðni Th. Jóhannesson: 42.1
Halla Tómasdóttir: 32.0
Davíð Oddsson: 14.1
Andri Snær Magnason: 7.2
Sturla Jónsson: 3.2
Elísabet Jökulsdóttir: 0.5
Ástþór Magnússon: 0.5
Guðrún Margrét Pálsdóttir: 0.3
Hildur Þórðardóttir: 0.2

North-East:
Guðni Th. Jóhannesson: 45.1
Halla Tómasdóttir: 31.1
Davíð Oddsson: 11.2
Andri Snær Magnason: 8.9
Sturla Jónsson: 2.5
Elísabet Jökulsdóttir: 0.4
Ástþór Magnússon: 0.3
Guðrún Margrét Pálsdóttir: 0.2
Hildur Þórðardóttir: 0.1

[Crimson King]

Thanks for all this, I doubt I would have followed this without it, and have found it interesting

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 26, 2016 18:08:00 GMT Crimson King said:

Thanks for all this, I doubt I would have followed this without it, and have found it interesting

I agree, great work @odo

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 26, 2016 9:50:57 GMT @odo said:

Gudni Th. turned 48 today (which explains the cake). Winning the presidency is a nice birthday present. Double congratulations.

The Icelanders seem to proffer cake at very strange times.

For example, I once went to a football match at the national stadium.  At half time, season ticket holders had a roped off section where the club provided a cake buffet (it was entirely made up of cakes).  We were baffled, but were told that this is very common over there.  In particular, they have a bizarre obsession with Tottenham Cake, something I've never actually seen in Britain.

They definitely do their own thing.

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MMR has polled a hypothetical run-off between Guðni Th. Jóhannesson and Halla Tómasdóttir. He would have narrowly won it with 52.1% vs. 47.9. In the 25 June elecio Guðni Th. Jóhannesson got 39.1 vs. 27.9 for Halla Tómasdóttir, so 11.2 points between them.  The left/right divide would have been surprisingly clearcut.

Guðni Th. would have won in the province, among men, those aged 50+ and the university educated. Halla T. had won in Reykjavík, among women and those aged 18-49. 

Party base support

Guðni Th. Jóhannesson:

Left Greens 75,9
SDA 74.0
Bright Future 66.0
Pirates 59.5
PP 34.2
IP 24.3

Its interesting that he win in the province with that low support among centre-right voters. 

Halla Tómasdóttir:

IP 75.7
PP 65.8 
Pirates 40,5
Bright Future 34.0 
SDA 26.0
Left Greens 24.1