Icelandic presidential election 2016

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A poll from new pollster Zenter from 26-28 April has an even bigger lead to ORG, but a lower sample (821).

Olafur Ragnar Grimsson 41.0%
Andra Snær Magnason 18.3%
Halla Tómasdóttir 6.2%
Hrannar Pétursson 1.5%
Bæring Olafsson 1.1%
Undecided 15.3% 
Will not vote 9.0 % 

Of those who took the position 57.6 % would vote Olafur Ragnar, 25.8% for Andra Snær and 8.7% for Halla Tómasdóttir. So not that different from the Gallup poll, but worse for ASM. 

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Gallup poll on the opinion of ORGs decision to stand again shows a roughly equal division.
www.visir.is/assets/pdf/XZ2103429.PDF

Satisfied 44%
Dissatisfied 43%
Neither satisfied or dissatisfied 13%

22% were completely satisfied
13% very satisfied
10% fairly satisfied
(small rounding error)

23% entirely dissatisfied
9% very dissatisfied
11% rather dissatisfied.

Highest satisfaction outside the capital, among low income groups and those with the highest incomes. Urban middle class voters are the most dissatisfied.

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When Magnús Ingi Magnússon announced he was running for President he offered a free hamburger on his Texasborgarar restaurant for every signature. Now he has released his campaign videos including both a touristy scenic presentation of Iceland to the tune of "Land and Hope of Glory" and a burger commercial the fat bearded MIM and some up-tempo old folks music with bits from his Rednex "Cotton Eye Joe" - ending with him putting his Texasborgarar logo on the presidential residency Bessastaðir.

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Some illustrative subsamples from the poll. about whether ORG should have run again (which of course isn't a 1:1 measure of his support).

Satisfied with his decision:
PP 83
IP 71 
Left Greens 26 (the old Peoples Alliance chairman still has some fans among older eurosceptic leftists)
Pirates 23 
SDA 22

Voted for Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson in 2012 75%
Voted for his main challenger Þóra Arnórsdóttir in 2012 9% (82% unsatisfied)

He still retains the bulk of his support and is less unpopular with centre-left voters than he should be in order for the challenger to win, but since ORG so far isn't campaigning and seems unwilling to do it this time, that may change.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Reading polls makes you realise how unusual it is to such an ancient, beautiful language being used for the same mundane purposes as any other.

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An April 18-29 poll from Maskina including historian Guðni Th. Jó­hann­es­son, who hasn't declared yet, shows that he would get 24.6% and become the main challenger if he entered the race. Halla T. "disappear" in this scenario

Ólafur Ragn­ar Gríms­son 46%
Andri Snær Magna­son 15%
All others below 2%

No detailed subsamples, but Morgunbladid writes that:

ÓRG has 76,8% support among those aged 18-25 (which must be name recognition), but is a striking contrast to the 25-34 group. Strongest in rural areas and among those with the lowest incomes as well as voters Progressive Party and Independence.

Guðni Th. Jó­hann­es­son polls highest among voters aged 45-54 years, living in the Reykjavik region, with 800,000 or higher family income and voting BF. So his core electorate overlaps with Halla T.s and he blows her out of the water with the Reykjavík upper middle class vote.

Andri Snær polls best with those aged 25-34, living in the capital and voting SDA. (though his party distribution among the centre-left parties is likely quite even)

Other news:

Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir from IP has confirmed she isn't running.

Voting on Icelandic embassies and consulates starts today and even if its a small voting group this may provoke some potential candidates to finally start declaring. Its a bit unusual that you can vote 3 weeks before the candidate selection is finalized, but its the Icelandic way and is due to the fairly short 5 week campaign. Normally all serious candidates would have declared by now (usually in March), but this time many have been biding their time.

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GThJ is a senior lecturer in Icelandic history at the University of Iceland and President of the Historical Society of Iceland. His appeal seems to be to those who wants non-political president with a bit of charisma and the intellectual background that usually plays well in Iceland. ASM is seen as too political by many.

He has quite a number of ties to Britain. Got his Ph.D. in history from Queen Mary, University of London. “Troubled Waters. Cod War, Fishing Disputes, and Britain’s Fight for the Freedom of the High Seas, 1948-64” (of all topics..). 
BA Hons. in history and politics from University of Warwick. M.St. in history from St. Antony’s College in Oxford. Teaching Assistant at Queen Mary, Univ. of London. Worked as correspondent in Britain for the Icelandic State Radio for a year.

He was raised as a Catholic, but left the church after the pedophilia scandals and consider himself an agnostic humanist. He is married to a Canadian academicians has five children.

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There are basically only two ways to beat ORG and they both require that the opposition to him coalesce around one candidate:

A) That the Pirate Party gets behind ASM and actively starts campaigning for him among their working class supporters and young people promoting his election as an essential requirement for political change (claiming that ORG could block Pirate participation in the government and "real" constitutional change), but this would require the Pirates to get their act together and start becoming political in a way they (apart from the leftists around Birgitta Jónsdóttir) have so far avoided.

B) That you form a broad nonpartisan middle class coalition of people who want the presidency to return to a ceremonial and neutral role. Uniting this segment would require a candidate with an intellectual/scholarly background in accordance with the tradition (a new Kristján Eldjárn), or a prominent artist without known political affiliations.

Option A seems increasingly unlikely and GThJ seems like the preferred option for those wanting to try option B, but unless ASM then withdraws they will split the vote, and its hard to see ASM back down now.

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Guðni Th. Jó­hann­es­son has announced that he has made up his mind and will announce his decision in a speech on Thursday. Which is a rather strange way of doing it, but makes no sense if he isn't running. So I suppose he is in - emboldened by the 25% poll. Though he has written a book on Kristján Eldjárn and the role of the presidency, which became a bestseller (thats 8,000 copies or so in Iceland..). So I suppose he could just be wanting to use the media attention to give some talk about the role of the office and how he thinks it should be used, but seems unlikely.

Guðrún Nordal has written that she isn't running, which might also indicate her university colleague is. She has waited surprisingly long before making an announcement, so must have been tempted. 

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A poll with a high 4.6 MoE and a "choose whatever Icelander you want" question has been released, but the two candidate match ups are interesting:

Olafur Ragnar Grimsson 42.5
Guðni Th. Johannesson 44.5
Do not know 13%

So among those with an opinion:
Guðni Th. Johannesson 51.1%
Grimsson 48.9%

Guðni has more follower in the capital region (48% against 39%) while ORG enjoys more support from rural areas (47% against 41%). ORG has more support from men (47% against 41%), but Guðni among women (48% against 39%). There were no significant differences by age, except that Olafur leads among people over seventy (63% against 32%).

ÓRG leads among PP supporters (72%) and 53% of IP supporters. Guðni Th.  leads among Pirate voters with 53%, SDA 67% and LG 74%.

Andri Snær M., Guðni Th. and ORG:

ORG 41.3%,
Guðni Th. 33.9%  
Andri Snær 11.6%. 
Undecided/won't vote 13.2% 

Eliminating these:
Andri Snær Magnason 13.4%
Guðni Th. Johannesson 39.0%
Olafur Ragnar Grimsson 47.6%

ASN leads among Pirate and LG supporters with 30% respectively and reduces Guðni Th. support and actually strengthens ORG actually polls better among IP supporters if there are three (presumably seen as a more "political" contest with leftists ASN in it. 

Not a high quality poll, and hopefully we will get one soon, but underlines that ORG can only lose if the opposition coalesces around one candidate, though interesting that Guðni Thorlacius Johannesson can hold him to a statistical tie. And ORGs 53% support among IP voters is far from impressive. 

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Guðni Th. Jóhannesson is often used as expert commentator in the media on government formation and presidential elections and that media exposure was what started the petitions to him of running himself, so this is probably more important than his authorship although his books have sold quite well. Basically many people have been dissatisfied by choosing between ORG and ASM, who could potentially be a divisive figure as he is associated too much with the left and the capital. So those who want a unifying non-political figure, who is still knowledgable about politics.

In 1968 Kristján Eldjárn was drafted against the Ambassador to Denmark and son in law of the incumbent president after he had made a serious a popular programs on the National Museum and overcame a 70% lead to his rival (only time a candidate has won more than 50%). So media exposure can take you all the way. But that was in a two horse race, it will be much harder with the current clown car. One more clown entered today: Baldur Ágústsson, a businessman (and real estate developer in the UK), who ran in 2004 and seemingly needed a bit of media attention back home.

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The Dorrit Moussaieff tax haven link affair is starting to get more serious and might be on the point where it could damage ORG:
www.theguardian.com/news/2016/may/02/iceland-presidents-wife-linked-to-offshore-tax-havens-in-leaked-filesor:

Or "Nein, nein, nein, nein, nein - oder doch" as SüZ phrase it:
www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/panama-papers-nein-nein-nein-nein-nein-oder-doch-1.2976806

SG at the Presidential Secretariat Örnólfur Thorsson:
"President Grímsson does not have, nor has he at any time had, any information about the financial affairs of his wife or other members of the Moussaieff family."
(yet another categorical statement and if that turns out not to be true, he will be in trouble..)

After the crash Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson was harshly criticized in a parliamentary report for his links to and promotion of the "financial Vikings" and he has refused to implement ethical rules for the presidency. This might come back to haunt him.

His very categorical statements in a recent CNN interview could also be perceived as lying. His core voters won't care, but if GThJ enters ORG may not be able to win on the core vote.

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Frettabladid poll conducted 2-3 May with a 1,161 sample and 68.6% responding.

Olafur Ragnar Grimsson 45%
Guðni Th. Johannesson 38%
Andri Snær Magnason 11%
Halla Tómasdóttir 3%
Elísabet Jökulsdóttir 1% 
Magnús Ingi Magnússon 1%
Ástþór Magnússon 1%

The other minor candidates below 1%. This seems already to be a two horse race. Ironically Andri Snær staying in could be what secures ORG a sixth term.

Guðni Th. has told Fréttablaðið today that he will present his candidacy formally at the meeting he has convened at 2PM.

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Live from Guðni Th. Jóhannesson's announcement:

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Guðni Th. did his best to emphasize he will be apolitical and above the "camps of the nation", but he did say the president must support the revision of the Constitution, "which needs to include the provisions that a prescribed part of voters can demand a referendum on controversial issues" (..) "Direct democracy does not include the need to trod to Bessastaðir with a petition in one hand and a torch in the other and ask for the opportunity to vote on it."

So he is at least on the oppositions side on that crucial element of the constitutional issue.

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First Lady Dorrit Moussaieff is a British citizen and has limited tax status (non-domiciled resident) in the UK. This situation involves a person who has a permanent home abroad and only pays taxes in the UK of the revenue earned there. The trouble is that she pays no taxes in Iceland. 

Olafur Ragnar Grimsson says he will not answer exactly what tax status his wife has and that "the British tax legislation is relatively complex". She has no income in Iceland and her income is taxed in the country "where it occurs". This might be Hongkong, where the family seem to collect their profits, but it may also be nowhere.

She is an Israeli citizen as well, but it seems she doesn't pay taxes in Israel either. 

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The candidates - quite a collection.

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After trying to stay above the fray ORG has entered the campaign by rebuking Guðni Th. Johannesson for criticizing Andri Snær Magnason and Sturla Jonsson in the first days of his candidacy for "being in the wrong election" as they should be running for Parliament instead. Guðni Th. said he thought the president should remain outside the factions and not be fighting for a specific cause.

"It's somehow completely new. It can be said that Guðni enters the historical record with this as he is the first candidate for the presidential election in the history of the country that begins to attack other candidates."

(a bit rich, as ORG attacked his main challenger in 2012 tv-journalist Thóra Arnórsdóttir for being an "ornament doll" and too weak to stand up to political pressure and one that would just do whatever the government told her to)

Olafur Ragnar lauds Sturla Jónsson for his "hard and heroic struggle against the banking system" in Iceland and says he "sacrificed himself a lot in that struggle."

"If he wants to use the presidency to promote the ideals of struggling and wrestling with his power structure in Iceland, it is just natural for him to enter the presidential race. (...) If Andri Snær wants to use the presidency to strengthen support for the national park in Iceland, it is also just very fine."

He says the presidency could be useful in this regard and recalls that he himself advocated the possibilities in the Arctic should play a bigger part for Iceland and Vigdis Finnbogadóttir campaigned for environmental protection and land regeneration when she was first elected in 1980.

"Candidates for president, and the president who gets be elected can of course contribute to the nation and parliament reaching a consensus on a national park in the highlands. I just do not understand why Guðni was making comments on these two fine men, who are going into the presidential race with these ideals. I think it's just natural and normal."

So trying to get on the same side as ASM on the issue of wether the presidency should be political or not. Probably a smart move, but since he himself introduced negative campaigning in the previously very "gentlemanly" presidential elections his critique of Guðni Th. is likely too hypocritical to stick (and he is obviously himself an integrated part of the "power structure").

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Former PM (1991-2004), current editor-in-chief of conservative daily Morgunblaðið and grey eminence of the IP right wing Davíð Oddsson (68) has declared his candidacy. Hard to see why as he will steal votes from ORG. Must mean the IP right wing prefer Guðni Th. Jóhannesson to win, which is a bit surprising (unless its a vanity project).

Davíð Oddsson was Mayor of Reykjavík 1982-91, defeated moderate Þorsteinn Pálsson (now behind Vidreisn) for the leadership in 1991, Foreign Minister 2004-05 and then Governor of the National Bank 2005-09, when the leftist government sacked him. The owner of Morgunblaðið (who also owns one of the biggest fishing companies in Iceland), then hired him as editor-in-chief, which caused an exodus of subscribers. He continued to exert significant control over the party afterwards, but Bjarni Benediktsson has in recent years had enough authority to assert himself and has crossed Davíð Oddsson and Big Fishing on several occasions (such as joining EU-sanctions against Russia).

He is highly controversial in Iceland, but part of the population sees him as the one that opened Iceland towards Europe, freed up the highly regulated economy and secured wealth and growth. Last year 27.7% chose Davíð Oddsson as the best PM Iceland ever had in a poll - the second highest result behind Jóhanna Sigurðardóttir (2009-13). But a majority view him as one of the main enablers of the crash and he has no chance of actually winning. 

Morgunblaðið's offices are located in Hádegismóar in Reykjavík. Móar means 'tufted moors', but its common to replace the latter part with mórinn 'ghost, monster' giving Davíð Oddsson the nickname Hádegismórinn (the Hádegis Monster). 

Morgunblaðið is commonly known as Mogginn, but since Davíð Oddsen took over its also called Dogginn, a nickname underlining the editors influence on its journalism. 

A usual short form of Davíð Oddsson is Doddsson, but since men named Davíð are often nicknamed Dabbi he becomes Dabbi kóngur ('King Davíð'), reflecting his continued dominance over the party (at least pre-2014).  Though the adjective dabbi also means 'sloppy', which is how many of his opponents viewed his tenure as Goveror of the National Bank.

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ORG vs. Doddsson: Battle of the dinosaurs: