Icelandic presidential election 2016

[Deleted]

Nine candidates supplied signatures before the deadline: Andri Snær Magnason, Ástþór Magnússon, Davíð Oddsson, Elísabet Jökulsdóttir, Guðni Th. Jóhannesson, Halla Tómasdóttir, Hildur Þórðardóttir, Sturla Jónsson and Guðrún Margrét Pálsdóttir. 

Guðrún Margrét handed hers in at 10pm, but not sure whether that means she barely made it, or just wanted some extra to be on the safe side.

As expected latecomers Baldur Ágústsson and Magnús Ingberg Jónsson failed. 

So it ended up with a fairly equal gender distribution: 5 men and 4 women. 

The signatures still need to be checked and the result validated by the Supreme Court etc. The final candidate list will be published next week, Friday at the latest.

[greenhert]

For information and links to the backgrounds of the aforementioned nine candidates: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icelandic_presidential_election,_2016

[Deleted]

[Deleted]

Link to an overview of polls conducted:
www.ruv.is/kosningar/forsetakosningar-2016

[Deleted]

Gallup poll May 19-25:

Guðni Th. Jóhannesson 57.2%
Davíð Odds­son 22.0% 
Andri Snær Magna­son 10.9%
Halla Tóm­as­dótt­ir 5.4%
Ástþór Magnús­son 1.7%
Sturla Jóns­son 1.2%
Hildur Þórðardóttir 0.8%
Guðrún Margrét Pálsdóttir 0.4% 
Elísabet Jökulsdóttir 0.3%
Magnús Ingiberg Jónsson 0.2% (failed to get ballot access)

[Deleted]

Davíð Oddsson's mother is seriously ill and he has canceled all campaign activities for the next couple of days to be with her.  

[Deleted]

Not much movement in the polls after a small decline for Gudni Th. Doddsson has been at 22% in one poll, but it doesn't seem like neither he nor Andri Snær are going to break Gudni Th.s lead. Doddsson has tried tainting Gudni Th. as the "SDA candidate", connecting to the line of attack others have promoted that he is the "creation" of some (unnamed) top officials at RUV, who have been giving him lots of free media exposure, but it doesn't really seem to stick and Doddsson has far too high unfavorables to be a threat. The biggest problem for Gudni would actually be if Doddsson tanks, which might get some voters to reconsider Andri Snær.

[Deleted]

New Gallup poll. Gudni Th. has lost a bit more, but is still solidly ahead. Halla T. is gaining and Andri Snær stagnating.

[Deleted]

[Deleted]

University of Iceland poll:

Guðni Th. Johannesson 55.1% (nc)
David Oddsson 15.9% (-3.8)
Halla Tómasdóttir12.3% (+2.5)
Andri Snær Magnason 11.0% (+0.1)

Sturla Jónsson 2.2
Ástþór Magnússon 1.7
Elísabet Jökulsdóttir 1.1 
Guðrún M. Pálsdóttir 0.5
Hildur Þórðardóttir 0.2 


Interestingly Guðni Th. now has 75% of the LG vote, almost as much as among SDA voters (76%). Andri Snær is going nowhere and has been surpassed by Halla after a good debate performance by her. I hope she passes Doddsson as well..   Andri Snær still gets 20% among 18-29 year olds.

53% of IP voters support Doddsson, 29% Guðni Th. and 14% Halla.

The left/right divide is a bit clearer now, but not enough to block Guðni Th. and it seems Halla T. benefits more from it. 

Guðni Th. gets an above average share among 60+ voters (59%) vs. 50% among 18-29 year olds. 60% among women, 50% among men. He has a very broad support base, but it leans a bit more left than  when he started.

[Deleted]

New Gallup poll:

Guðni Th. Jó­hann­es­son 50.9%
Davíð Odds­son 16.4%
Andri Snær Magna­son 15.5%
Halla Tóm­as­dótt­ir 12.5%

Sturla Jóns­son 2.7%
Elísa­bet Jök­uls­dótt­ir 1.1%
Ástþór Magnús­son 0.5%
Guðrún Mar­grét Páls­dótt­ir 0.3%
Hildi Þórðardótt­u 0.2%

ASN gaining again. Less tactical voting now that people feel certain Doddsson won't win.

[Deleted]

Halla T in #2 now and Guðni Th. has fallen below 50%, but it won't be close. University of Iceland has Andri Snær tied with Doddsson and Halla and there is still a small hope that Doddsson will finish in a humiliating fourth place (ASM gained 4% from the last UoI poll).

University of Iceland:

Guðni Th. Johannesson 45.9

Halla Tómasdóttir16.3 
David Oddsson 16.0
Andri Snær Magnason 15.7


Fréttablaðið (low quality pollster)

Guðni Th. Johannesson 49.0

Halla Tómasdóttir 19.6 
Andri Snær Magnason 12.9 
David Odsson 12.4
Sturla Jónsson  2.5 

[Davıd Boothroyd]

That football commentator should run.

[Crimson King]

with a significant percentage of the population (I am lead to believe) in France, and staying there longer than some might have expected, will that have any effect?

[Deleted]

Jun 23, 2016 9:10:36 GMT Crimson King said:

with a significant percentage of the population (I am lead to believe) in France, and staying there longer than some might have expected, will that have any effect?

I doubt it, early voting started eight weeks prior to election day. Football supporters wanting to vote will have had ample opportunity to do so.

Halla T. might get hurt a little bit as she keeps gaining and could have done slightly better if her potential supporters weren't in France. There will be some people who delivered a postal vote for Gudni Th. weeks ago and went to France, but might have voted for her now that the "Stop Doddsson" effect has evaporated.

[Deleted]

Last Gallup poll from June 20-24.

Guðni Th. Jóhannesson 44.6
Halla Tómasdóttir 18.6
Davíð Oddsson 16.0
Andri Snær Magnason 16.0

Sturla Jónsson 2.5
Elísabet Jökulsdóttir 1.1
Ástþór Magnússon 0.7 
Guðrún Margrét Pálsdóttir 0.5
Hildur Þórðardóttir 0.0   

[Deleted]

Polls close at 10pm GMT and there will be a preliminary prognosis at 11pm. So turnout has been above the last election in the SW ("suburbia" and Akureyri) and on par with 2012 in the rest of the country.

[Deleted]

RUV election coverage:
www.ruv.is/frett/kosningavaka-ruv-i-ollum-midlum

[Deleted]

Halla T. actually almost ties Gudni Th. in the first votes...

[Deleted]

Halla T. at 30.2% in the SW so far. Gudni at 39%+.