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Post by hullenedge on Mar 30, 2016 18:05:53 GMT
An election forecast for February 1974...that was somewhat wide of the mark. Major E. Lenox Figgis, writer of gambling/probability books, published his forecast in the Daily Express. He claimed a near perfect prediction for 1955/1959/1964 & 1970 although he admitted underestimating Labour by 15 seats in 1966.
The Figgis forecast for 1974 - CON 304, LAB 266, LIB 50 and Others 15. Boundary changes to have increased the Tory majority from 30 to 75!
Maj. Figgis based his forecast upon a Liberal surge (by-election wins and v.good local election results) and a 1% swing from Con to Lab.
Seats to change hands - The Libs would retain their by-election gains (Berwick, Ely, Rochdale, Ripon, Sutton) and gain 29 Con seats - Aberdeenshire W, Bodmin, Carshalton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Chingford, Chippenham, Devon W, Dorset N, Eastbourne, Enfield N, Essex SE, Hazel Grove, Hemel Hempstead, High Peak, Liverpool Wavertree, Manchester Moss Side and Withington, Nantwich, Orpington, Richmond, Ross & Cromarty, St. Ives, Scarborough, Southend East and West, Truro, Wallasey, Westmorland and ten Lab seats - Caithness & Sutherland, Cardigan, Chester le Street, Colne Valley, Huddersfield W, Liverpool Edge Hill/Kirkdale/Toxteth/West Derby, Greenock & Port Glasgow.
SNP gains from Con - Aberdeenshire E, Argyll; gains from Lab - Hamilton, West Lothian and retain Glasgow Govan (gained at by-election).
PC gain from Con - Pembrokeshire; gains from Lab - Caernarvon, Camarthen, Merionethshire.
Other wins being - Fermanagh, Mid-Ulster, Belfast W, Western Isles, Wirral and Lincoln.
No mention of possible Con/Lab changes.
I have yet to find a Figgis forecast for October 1974.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 30, 2016 18:25:02 GMT
Now we know why his grandson Arthur is so rubbish at the predictions competition  |
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Mar 30, 2016 18:49:53 GMT
Post by finsobruce on Mar 30, 2016 18:49:53 GMT
An election forecast for February 1974...that was somewhat wide of the mark. Major E. Lenox Figgis, writer of gambling/probability books, published his forecast in the Daily Express. He claimed a near perfect prediction for 1955/1959/1964 & 1970 although he admitted underestimating Labour by 15 seats in 1966. The Figgis forecast for 1974 - CON 304, LAB 266, LIB 50 and Others 15. Boundary changes to have increased the Tory majority from 30 to 75! Maj. Figgis based his forecast upon a Liberal surge (by-election wins and v.good local election results) and a 1% swing from Con to Lab. Seats to change hands - The Libs would retain their by-election gains (Berwick, Ely, Rochdale, Ripon, Sutton) and gain 29 Con seats - Aberdeenshire W, Bodmin, Carshalton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Chingford, Chippenham, Devon W, Dorset N, Eastbourne, Enfield N, Essex SE, Hazel Grove, Hemel Hempstead, High Peak, Liverpool Wavertree, Manchester Moss Side and Withington, Nantwich, Orpington, Richmond, Ross & Cromarty, St. Ives, Scarborough, Southend East and West, Truro, Wallasey, Westmorland and ten Lab seats - Caithness & Sutherland, Cardigan, Chester le Street, Colne Valley, Huddersfield W, Liverpool Edge Hill/Kirkdale/Toxteth/West Derby, Greenock & Port Glasgow. SNP gains from Con - Aberdeenshire E, Argyll; gains from Lab - Hamilton, West Lothian and retain Glasgow Govan (gained at by-election). PC gain from Con - Pembrokeshire; gains from Lab - Caernarvon, Camarthen, Merionethshire. Other wins being - Fermanagh, Mid-Ulster, Belfast W, Western Isles, Wirral and Lincoln. No mention of possible Con/Lab changes. I have yet to find a Figgis forecast for October 1974. Author of "Challenge to Chance" ," Focus on Gambling " and "The Gamblers Handbook" . Not to be confused with John Neville Figgis author of "Some defects in English Religion" and "The Antichrist and Other Sermons" |
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Mar 30, 2016 18:52:25 GMT
Post by greatkingrat on Mar 30, 2016 18:52:25 GMT
Other wins being - Fermanagh, Mid-Ulster, Belfast W, Western Isles, Wirral and Lincoln. I'm curious who he thought was going to win Western Isles if not the SNP? |
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Mar 30, 2016 18:54:50 GMT
Post by Arthur Figgis on Mar 30, 2016 18:54:50 GMT
Malcolm Macmillan?
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Mar 30, 2016 19:01:09 GMT
Post by finsobruce on Mar 30, 2016 19:01:09 GMT
A further bit of searching reveals that the Conservative party archive in the Bodleian library contains a submission by Maj Lenox Figgis about the Redistribution of Parliamentary seats. He had a scheme apparently. Dated rather vaguely at 1956-66.
4/9/405 should anyone care to look further
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 30, 2016 19:45:31 GMT
Eric Francis Lenox Figgis, b. Liverpool 1903. M. 1st ? Wood, 1936. Commissioned as 2nd Lt, Royal Army Service Corps, 3 April 1943. War Subst. Lt. Promoted Captain, 19 September 1947 from Emergency Commission. Promoted Major, 1 May 1950, and transferred to the Territorial Army Reserve of Officers. M. 2nd Jocelyn Allan, 1952. Reached the age limit and ceased to belong to the Reserve of Officers, 28 July 1965.
Author of 'Focus on Gambling' (Arthur Barker Ltd, 1951) and 'Challenge to Chance' (Arco Publications, 1957) on gambling.
D. 1983, Isle of Man.
May possibly have been the brother of Arthur Lenox Figgis (1918-2006), who was a Circuit Court Judge (1971-92)
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774 
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Mar 31, 2016 0:12:01 GMT
Post by john07 on Mar 31, 2016 0:12:01 GMT
Fair call. He had represented the Constituency for 35 years before losing narrowly to Donald Stewart in 1970. M K Macmillan was a student at Aberdeen University and contacted the Labour Party to see if he could help out in the 1935 General Election campaign in the Western Isles. He was informed that there was no candidate but if he could get himself nominated, the party would support him. He beat the incumbent National Liberal MP and the SNP is a tight three-way fight. He was apparently an bad MP. He stood an an United Labour Party candidate in February 1974 and finished fourth losing his deposit. |
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 31, 2016 11:11:14 GMT
Another slice of trivia...the expected declaration times for Scottish constituencies at the 1950 General Election:-
Friday 24th Feb 1-2am - Aberdeen North/South (I've checked and they're the only overnight Scottish declarations)
11am - Banff
Noon- 1pm - Angus S, Ayr, AyrshireC/N/S, Coatbridge, Hamilton, Kilmarnock, Paisley, Perth, Renfrewshire E/W
1-2pm - all 15 Glasgow seats plus the seven Edinburgh seats, Aberdeenshire E/W, Angus N, Bothwell, Dundee E/W, Dumfries, Fife E, Greenock, Lanark/Lanarkshire N, Midlothian, Moray, Motherwell, Roxburgh, Rutherglen, Stirlingshire W,
2-3pm - Dunbartonshire E/W, Dunfermline, E/W Lothian, Fife W, Kirkcaldy, Stirling/Stirlingshire E
4pm - Kinross
10pm - 1am -Caithness
Saturday 25th - Ross & Cromarty/Western Isles
Monday 27th - Inverness/Orkney & Shetland
Galloway omitted from the list!
Definite declaration times - Friday 24th 6.20pm Ayrshire Central - LAB (310 seats nationally) and 8.19pm Coatbridge - LAB and 313 seats, an overall majority. Slow counting?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Mar 31, 2016 11:28:11 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Mar 31, 2016 11:28:11 GMT
Also no mention of Argyll - the only UK seat to delay its count until Saturday come the 1966 GE.
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Mar 31, 2016 12:09:06 GMT
Post by hullenedge on Mar 31, 2016 12:09:06 GMT
Apologies I missed Argyll...expected declaration on the Monday.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Mar 31, 2016 12:52:26 GMT
via mobile
Post by iain on Mar 31, 2016 12:52:26 GMT
An election forecast for February 1974...that was somewhat wide of the mark. Major E. Lenox Figgis, writer of gambling/probability books, published his forecast in the Daily Express. He claimed a near perfect prediction for 1955/1959/1964 & 1970 although he admitted underestimating Labour by 15 seats in 1966. The Figgis forecast for 1974 - CON 304, LAB 266, LIB 50 and Others 15. Boundary changes to have increased the Tory majority from 30 to 75! Maj. Figgis based his forecast upon a Liberal surge (by-election wins and v.good local election results) and a 1% swing from Con to Lab. Seats to change hands - The Libs would retain their by-election gains (Berwick, Ely, Rochdale, Ripon, Sutton) and gain 29 Con seats - Aberdeenshire W, Bodmin, Carshalton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Chingford, Chippenham, Devon W, Dorset N, Eastbourne, Enfield N, Essex SE, Hazel Grove, Hemel Hempstead, High Peak, Liverpool Wavertree, Manchester Moss Side and Withington, Nantwich, Orpington, Richmond, Ross & Cromarty, St. Ives, Scarborough, Southend East and West, Truro, Wallasey, Westmorland and ten Lab seats - Caithness & Sutherland, Cardigan, Chester le Street, Colne Valley, Huddersfield W, Liverpool Edge Hill/Kirkdale/Toxteth/West Derby, Greenock & Port Glasgow. SNP gains from Con - Aberdeenshire E, Argyll; gains from Lab - Hamilton, West Lothian and retain Glasgow Govan (gained at by-election). PC gain from Con - Pembrokeshire; gains from Lab - Caernarvon, Camarthen, Merionethshire. Other wins being - Fermanagh, Mid-Ulster, Belfast W, Western Isles, Wirral and Lincoln. No mention of possible Con/Lab changes. I have yet to find a Figgis forecast for October 1974. That seems like a fairly random collection of seats for the Liberals. Interesting to note that Menzies Campbell was the Liberal candidate for Greenock. Plaid for Pembrokeshire is a fairly odd prediction. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Mar 31, 2016 13:11:50 GMT
Post by john07 on Mar 31, 2016 13:11:50 GMT
An election forecast for February 1974...that was somewhat wide of the mark. Major E. Lenox Figgis, writer of gambling/probability books, published his forecast in the Daily Express. He claimed a near perfect prediction for 1955/1959/1964 & 1970 although he admitted underestimating Labour by 15 seats in 1966. The Figgis forecast for 1974 - CON 304, LAB 266, LIB 50 and Others 15. Boundary changes to have increased the Tory majority from 30 to 75! Maj. Figgis based his forecast upon a Liberal surge (by-election wins and v.good local election results) and a 1% swing from Con to Lab. Seats to change hands - The Libs would retain their by-election gains (Berwick, Ely, Rochdale, Ripon, Sutton) and gain 29 Con seats - Aberdeenshire W, Bodmin, Carshalton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Chingford, Chippenham, Devon W, Dorset N, Eastbourne, Enfield N, Essex SE, Hazel Grove, Hemel Hempstead, High Peak, Liverpool Wavertree, Manchester Moss Side and Withington, Nantwich, Orpington, Richmond, Ross & Cromarty, St. Ives, Scarborough, Southend East and West, Truro, Wallasey, Westmorland and ten Lab seats - Caithness & Sutherland, Cardigan, Chester le Street, Colne Valley, Huddersfield W, Liverpool Edge Hill/Kirkdale/Toxteth/West Derby, Greenock & Port Glasgow. SNP gains from Con - Aberdeenshire E, Argyll; gains from Lab - Hamilton, West Lothian and retain Glasgow Govan (gained at by-election). PC gain from Con - Pembrokeshire; gains from Lab - Caernarvon, Camarthen, Merionethshire. Other wins being - Fermanagh, Mid-Ulster, Belfast W, Western Isles, Wirral and Lincoln. No mention of possible Con/Lab changes. I have yet to find a Figgis forecast for October 1974. He probably gave up after that fiasco. He had a lot of issues right including the Liberal surge but failed to spot that they would take three votes from the Conservatives for every two votes taken from Labour. He got it wrong in Scotland despite predicting the SNP advance by not spotting the fact that they would take more seats from the Conservatives than Labour. |
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 1, 2016 15:08:02 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 10, 2016 9:14:17 GMT
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Post by David Ashforth on Apr 10, 2016 18:27:43 GMT
The Sheffield Telegraph also used to publish year books. 1951
1939
1904
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Apr 15, 2016 15:40:36 GMT
Post by hullenedge on Apr 15, 2016 15:40:36 GMT
Thanks for the links. I've dug out the 1935 Bradford Guide:- www.dropbox.com/sh/ce3v8o8tk2mgpmv/AAA1BKhUb8Jmizyq8QmvQC9Wa?dl=0Definitions of the pre-1937 wards and pages (too many to copy) of the polling districts! If only they'd printed the past municipal results like other guides. The Halifax Guide ceased in 1972. A few Calderdale attempts but a v.poor imitation. |
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 15, 2016 15:46:30 GMT
Another slice of trivia...the declaration times (some) for 1945. There are contradictions amongst the papers. Leeds and Salford definitely correct.
27th July 1945
10.01 Salford South – Lab gain from Con
Kingston upon Thames – Con
Manchester Exchange - Lab gain from Con
Manchester Hulme – Lab
Liverpool Everton – Lab
Salford North - Lab gain from Con
Salford West - Lab gain from Con
10.15 Rotherham – Lab
Burnley – Lab
Westminster Abbey – Con
Cheltenham – Ind
Stockton on Tees – Lab gain from Con
Holborn – Con
Wakefield – Lab
10.30 Lincoln – Lab gain from Con
Northampton – Lab gain from Con
Tynemouth - Lab gain from Con
Peterborough - Lab gain from Con
10.40 Sheffield Hillsborough - Lab
Birmingham Acocks Green – Lab new seat
Birmingham Duddeston – Lab gain from Con
Grimsby – Lab gain from Con
Bethnal Green South West – Lab gain from Lib
Liverpool West Derby – Con
10.55 Wallasey – Con gain from Ind
11.00 Paddington North – Lab gain from Con
Dulwich - Lab gain from Con
King’s Lynn – Lab gain from Con
St. Marylebone – Con gain from Ind Con
11.01 Leeds Central - Lab gain from Con
11.06 Leeds South East – Lab
11.13 Leeds North East - Lab gain from Con
11.15 Aldershot – Con
Birmingham Ladywood – Lab gain from Con
Birmingham Sparkbrook – Lab gain from Con
Wandsworth Central – Lab
Mile End – Comm gain from Lab
11.21 Leeds West - Lab gain from Con
11.27 Leeds South - Lab
11.30 City of London – National and Con (two seats)
Limehouse – Lab
Bristol East – Lab
Preston – two Lab gains from Con
Reading – Lab gain from Con
Plymouth Sutton – Lab gain from Con
Nottingham South – Lab gain from Con
Stoke – Lab
Fulham East – Lab gain from Con
Hammersmith South - Lab gain from Con
St Pancras South East - Lab gain from Con
Brixton - Lab gain from Con
Kensington North - Lab gain from Con
Sheffield Hillsborough - Lab
11.45 Swindon – Lab gain from Con
Darwen – Con
Brentford & Chiswick – Lab gain from Con
Plymouth Devonport - Lab gain from Con
Birkenhead East – Lab gain from Lib
Cardiff East - Lab gain from Con
Wolverhampton East - Lab gain from Lib
11.55 Willesden East - Lab gain from Con
Mitcham - Lab gain from Con
Bradford Central – Lab
St. Pancras South West - Lab gain from Con
Bridgwater – Ind
Wood Green – Con
Gravesend - Lab gain from Con
Noon Lewisham East - Lab gain from Con
Hackney South – Lab
Sowerby - Lab gain from Con
Berwick upon Tweed – Con gain from Lib
Putney – Con
Eddisbury – Nat Lib gain from Lab
Richmond – Con
12.15 Buckrose – Lib gain from Con
Hull South West - Lab gain from Con
Hull North West - Lab gain from Con
Bolton – two Lab gains from Con
Derby – one Lab gain from Con, Lab hold other seat
Woodford – Con
Cambridge - Lab gain from Con
Cambridgeshire - Lab gain from Con
Hampstead – Con
12.20 Leeds North - Con
12.25 Horsham – Con
Bath – Con
Isle of Ely – Con gain from Lib
Hendon South – Con
Sevenoaks – Con
12.30 Norwood - Lab gain from Con
Crewe - Lab gain from Con
12.45 Glasgow Gorbals – Lab
12.50 Rushcliffe - Lab gain from Con
Stafford - Lab gain from Con
Bromley – Con
Monmouth – Con
Warwick & Leamington – Con
Dundee – two Lab gains
Frome - Lab gain from Con
13.00 Cannock – Lab
Maldon – Lab
Chelmsford – CW
Birmingham King’s Norton - Lab gain from Con
13.15 The Wrekin - Lab gain from Con
Glasgow Central – Con
Edinburgh Leith - Lab gain from Nat Lib
Edinburgh North - Lab gain from Con
Motherwell – Lab gain from SNP
14.00 Chatham - Lab gain from Con
Ormskirk - Lab gain from Con
14.15 Caithness & Sutherland – Con gain from Lib
Pembroke - Lab gain from Lib
By 2pm Labour could not be beaten
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Apr 25, 2016 19:52:30 GMT
Post by hullenedge on Apr 25, 2016 19:52:30 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on May 1, 2016 11:23:59 GMT
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