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Trivia
Aug 23, 2024 13:43:22 GMT
Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 23, 2024 13:43:22 GMT
But pre-WW1 there would have been many MPs owing more than that total EACH! I'm pretty sure the 184 total was significantly surpassed by a single MP as recently as 2019 (Richard Benyon). I'm guessing John Thurso may have owned a number of let properties ... ? |
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 5, 2024 11:01:34 GMT
Not really trivia:-
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Sept 5, 2024 12:30:38 GMT
An election forecast for February 1974...that was somewhat wide of the mark. Major E. Lenox Figgis, writer of gambling/probability books, published his forecast in the Daily Express. He claimed a near perfect prediction for 1955/1959/1964 & 1970 although he admitted underestimating Labour by 15 seats in 1966. The Figgis forecast for 1974 - CON 304, LAB 266, LIB 50 and Others 15. Boundary changes to have increased the Tory majority from 30 to 75! Maj. Figgis based his forecast upon a Liberal surge (by-election wins and v.good local election results) and a 1% swing from Con to Lab. Seats to change hands - The Libs would retain their by-election gains (Berwick, Ely, Rochdale, Ripon, Sutton) and gain 29 Con seats - Aberdeenshire W, Bodmin, Carshalton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Chingford, Chippenham, Devon W, Dorset N, Eastbourne, Enfield N, Essex SE, Hazel Grove, Hemel Hempstead, High Peak, Liverpool Wavertree, Manchester Moss Side and Withington, Nantwich, Orpington, Richmond, Ross & Cromarty, St. Ives, Scarborough, Southend East and West, Truro, Wallasey, Westmorland and ten Lab seats - Caithness & Sutherland, Cardigan, Chester le Street, Colne Valley, Huddersfield W, Liverpool Edge Hill/Kirkdale/Toxteth/West Derby, Greenock & Port Glasgow. SNP gains from Con - Aberdeenshire E, Argyll; gains from Lab - Hamilton, West Lothian and retain Glasgow Govan (gained at by-election). PC gain from Con - Pembrokeshire; gains from Lab - Caernarvon, Camarthen, Merionethshire. Other wins being - Fermanagh, Mid-Ulster, Belfast W, Western Isles, Wirral and Lincoln. No mention of possible Con/Lab changes. I have yet to find a Figgis forecast for October 1974. It was a difficult election to call. It initially looked like an easy Tory win. I was in my final year at Manchester University and Professor Samuel Finer who was a top analyst suggested in a tutorial that the Conservatives would win although it was a fascinating campaign. As the campaign went on the Liberal vote started to surge upwards. The key question was where were their extra votes coming from. Many made the assumption that they would come equally from Conservative and Labour. In the final analysis they seemed to have taken three votes from the Tories to every two votes from Labour. That left the Conservatives very narrowly ahead on votes and Labour ahead on seats. It was a kind of revenge for 1951. |
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 5, 2024 12:40:00 GMT
An election forecast for February 1974...that was somewhat wide of the mark. Major E. Lenox Figgis, writer of gambling/probability books, published his forecast in the Daily Express. He claimed a near perfect prediction for 1955/1959/1964 & 1970 although he admitted underestimating Labour by 15 seats in 1966. The Figgis forecast for 1974 - CON 304, LAB 266, LIB 50 and Others 15. Boundary changes to have increased the Tory majority from 30 to 75! Maj. Figgis based his forecast upon a Liberal surge (by-election wins and v.good local election results) and a 1% swing from Con to Lab. Seats to change hands - The Libs would retain their by-election gains (Berwick, Ely, Rochdale, Ripon, Sutton) and gain 29 Con seats - Aberdeenshire W, Bodmin, Carshalton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Chingford, Chippenham, Devon W, Dorset N, Eastbourne, Enfield N, Essex SE, Hazel Grove, Hemel Hempstead, High Peak, Liverpool Wavertree, Manchester Moss Side and Withington, Nantwich, Orpington, Richmond, Ross & Cromarty, St. Ives, Scarborough, Southend East and West, Truro, Wallasey, Westmorland and ten Lab seats - Caithness & Sutherland, Cardigan, Chester le Street, Colne Valley, Huddersfield W, Liverpool Edge Hill/Kirkdale/Toxteth/West Derby, Greenock & Port Glasgow. SNP gains from Con - Aberdeenshire E, Argyll; gains from Lab - Hamilton, West Lothian and retain Glasgow Govan (gained at by-election). PC gain from Con - Pembrokeshire; gains from Lab - Caernarvon, Camarthen, Merionethshire. Other wins being - Fermanagh, Mid-Ulster, Belfast W, Western Isles, Wirral and Lincoln. No mention of possible Con/Lab changes. I have yet to find a Figgis forecast for October 1974. It was a difficult election to call. It initially looked like an easy Tory win. I was in my final year at Manchester University and Professor Samuel Finer who was a top analyst suggested in a tutorial that the Conservatives would win although it was a fascinating campaign. As the campaign went on the Liberal vote started to surge upwards. The key question was where were their extra votes coming from. Many made the assumption that they would come equally from Conservative and Labour. In the final analysis they seemed to have taken three votes from the Tories to every two votes from Labour. That left the Conservatives very narrowly ahead on votes and Labour ahead on seats. It was a kind of revenge for 1951. The Libs took votes from Labour where it made little difference and votes from the Tories where it did. The polls did point to a hung parliament if turnout increased (plus the unwind of the 'Powell' swing in a few select constituencies although there's a 3-day week factor in those seats). Heath would likely have scraped a narrow lead (but not a majority) if the polls had been correct. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 5, 2024 12:57:27 GMT
It was a difficult election to call. It initially looked like an easy Tory win. I was in my final year at Manchester University and Professor Samuel Finer who was a top analyst suggested in a tutorial that the Conservatives would win although it was a fascinating campaign. As the campaign went on the Liberal vote started to surge upwards. The key question was where were their extra votes coming from. Many made the assumption that they would come equally from Conservative and Labour. In the final analysis they seemed to have taken three votes from the Tories to every two votes from Labour. That left the Conservatives very narrowly ahead on votes and Labour ahead on seats. It was a kind of revenge for 1951. The Libs took votes from Labour where it made little difference and votes from the Tories where it did. The polls did point to a hung parliament if turnout increased (plus the unwind of the 'Powell' swing in a few select constituencies although there's a 3-day week factor in those seats). Heath would likely have scraped a narrow lead (but not a majority) if the polls had been correct. Though in terms of percentage errors the polls did better than 1970 especially Gallup |
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 5, 2024 12:57:51 GMT
An election forecast for February 1974...that was somewhat wide of the mark. Major E. Lenox Figgis, writer of gambling/probability books, published his forecast in the Daily Express. He claimed a near perfect prediction for 1955/1959/1964 & 1970 although he admitted underestimating Labour by 15 seats in 1966. The Figgis forecast for 1974 - CON 304, LAB 266, LIB 50 and Others 15. Boundary changes to have increased the Tory majority from 30 to 75! Maj. Figgis based his forecast upon a Liberal surge (by-election wins and v.good local election results) and a 1% swing from Con to Lab. Seats to change hands - The Libs would retain their by-election gains (Berwick, Ely, Rochdale, Ripon, Sutton) and gain 29 Con seats - Aberdeenshire W, Bodmin, Carshalton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Chingford, Chippenham, Devon W, Dorset N, Eastbourne, Enfield N, Essex SE, Hazel Grove, Hemel Hempstead, High Peak, Liverpool Wavertree, Manchester Moss Side and Withington, Nantwich, Orpington, Richmond, Ross & Cromarty, St. Ives, Scarborough, Southend East and West, Truro, Wallasey, Westmorland and ten Lab seats - Caithness & Sutherland, Cardigan, Chester le Street, Colne Valley, Huddersfield W, Liverpool Edge Hill/Kirkdale/Toxteth/West Derby, Greenock & Port Glasgow. SNP gains from Con - Aberdeenshire E, Argyll; gains from Lab - Hamilton, West Lothian and retain Glasgow Govan (gained at by-election). PC gain from Con - Pembrokeshire; gains from Lab - Caernarvon, Camarthen, Merionethshire. Other wins being - Fermanagh, Mid-Ulster, Belfast W, Western Isles, Wirral and Lincoln. No mention of possible Con/Lab changes. I have yet to find a Figgis forecast for October 1974. It was a difficult election to call. It initially looked like an easy Tory win. I was in my final year at Manchester University and Professor Samuel Finer who was a top analyst suggested in a tutorial that the Conservatives would win although it was a fascinating campaign. As the campaign went on the Liberal vote started to surge upwards. The key question was where were their extra votes coming from. Many made the assumption that they would come equally from Conservative and Labour. In the final analysis they seemed to have taken three votes from the Tories to every two votes from Labour. That left the Conservatives very narrowly ahead on votes and Labour ahead on seats. It was a kind of revenge for 1951. Which was a revenge for 1929! |
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 11, 2024 11:25:54 GMT
The Sunday Express forecast for 1964 (based upon the views of local correspondents) - Con 329 Lab 294 Lib 7.
Con gain from Lab - Birmingham Perry Barr, Norfolk North, Brigg, Bilston, Smethwick, Dorset South, Glasgow Woodside.
Lib gain from Con - Cornwall North.
Lib gain from Ind - Caithness & Sutherland.
Lab gain from Con - Brighouse & Spenborough, Derbyshire South East, Birmingham All Saints, Newcastle East, Nottingham West, Keighley, The Hartlepools, Swansea West, Wellingborough, Sunderland South, Holborn & St Pancras South, Manchester Wythenshawe, Acton, Cleveland, Uxbridge, Bristol North West, Wandsworth Central, Clapham, Heywood & Royton, Halifax, Carlisle, Willesden East, Battersea South, Braford North, Dover, Epping, Liverpool Kirkdale, Berwick & East Lothian, Renfrewshire West, The Wrekin, Billericay, Reading, Bedfordshire South, Darlington, Liverpool Walton, Manchester Blackley, Plymouth Sutton.
Lab gain from Lib - Bolton West, Huddersfield West.
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Trivia
Oct 11, 2024 11:36:11 GMT
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 11, 2024 11:36:11 GMT
Not a bad set of predictions all told, despite being out on the totals by quite an amount. It certainly picks up largely on those areas going against the national trend (Norfolk North was very close to joining Smethwick and Perry Barr (and Norfolk SW for that matter) as a Conservative gain. Brigg was a bit of a howler though)
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 4, 2024 8:36:55 GMT
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Post by greatkingrat on Nov 4, 2024 11:42:28 GMT
Maybe he reminds them of Alex Salmond? |
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The Bishop
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Trivia
Nov 4, 2024 11:50:32 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Nov 4, 2024 11:50:32 GMT
Something in that, and of course Wee Eck was himself quite pally with Orange Man as well as sharing some mannerisms.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Trivia
Nov 5, 2024 12:07:59 GMT
Post by john07 on Nov 5, 2024 12:07:59 GMT
Something in that, and of course Wee Eck was himself quite pally with Orange Man as well as sharing some mannerisms. The speed in which the Scottish Government ‘called in’ and reversed the original rejection of planning approval for the Trump golf course illustrates that. |
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