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Trivia
Aug 23, 2024 13:43:22 GMT
Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 23, 2024 13:43:22 GMT
But pre-WW1 there would have been many MPs owing more than that total EACH! I'm pretty sure the 184 total was significantly surpassed by a single MP as recently as 2019 (Richard Benyon). I'm guessing John Thurso may have owned a number of let properties ... ?
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 5, 2024 11:01:34 GMT
Not really trivia:-
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,580
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Post by john07 on Sept 5, 2024 12:30:38 GMT
An election forecast for February 1974...that was somewhat wide of the mark. Major E. Lenox Figgis, writer of gambling/probability books, published his forecast in the Daily Express. He claimed a near perfect prediction for 1955/1959/1964 & 1970 although he admitted underestimating Labour by 15 seats in 1966. The Figgis forecast for 1974 - CON 304, LAB 266, LIB 50 and Others 15. Boundary changes to have increased the Tory majority from 30 to 75! Maj. Figgis based his forecast upon a Liberal surge (by-election wins and v.good local election results) and a 1% swing from Con to Lab. Seats to change hands - The Libs would retain their by-election gains (Berwick, Ely, Rochdale, Ripon, Sutton) and gain 29 Con seats - Aberdeenshire W, Bodmin, Carshalton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Chingford, Chippenham, Devon W, Dorset N, Eastbourne, Enfield N, Essex SE, Hazel Grove, Hemel Hempstead, High Peak, Liverpool Wavertree, Manchester Moss Side and Withington, Nantwich, Orpington, Richmond, Ross & Cromarty, St. Ives, Scarborough, Southend East and West, Truro, Wallasey, Westmorland and ten Lab seats - Caithness & Sutherland, Cardigan, Chester le Street, Colne Valley, Huddersfield W, Liverpool Edge Hill/Kirkdale/Toxteth/West Derby, Greenock & Port Glasgow. SNP gains from Con - Aberdeenshire E, Argyll; gains from Lab - Hamilton, West Lothian and retain Glasgow Govan (gained at by-election). PC gain from Con - Pembrokeshire; gains from Lab - Caernarvon, Camarthen, Merionethshire. Other wins being - Fermanagh, Mid-Ulster, Belfast W, Western Isles, Wirral and Lincoln. No mention of possible Con/Lab changes. I have yet to find a Figgis forecast for October 1974. It was a difficult election to call. It initially looked like an easy Tory win. I was in my final year at Manchester University and Professor Samuel Finer who was a top analyst suggested in a tutorial that the Conservatives would win although it was a fascinating campaign. As the campaign went on the Liberal vote started to surge upwards. The key question was where were their extra votes coming from. Many made the assumption that they would come equally from Conservative and Labour. In the final analysis they seemed to have taken three votes from the Tories to every two votes from Labour. That left the Conservatives very narrowly ahead on votes and Labour ahead on seats. It was a kind of revenge for 1951.
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 5, 2024 12:40:00 GMT
An election forecast for February 1974...that was somewhat wide of the mark. Major E. Lenox Figgis, writer of gambling/probability books, published his forecast in the Daily Express. He claimed a near perfect prediction for 1955/1959/1964 & 1970 although he admitted underestimating Labour by 15 seats in 1966. The Figgis forecast for 1974 - CON 304, LAB 266, LIB 50 and Others 15. Boundary changes to have increased the Tory majority from 30 to 75! Maj. Figgis based his forecast upon a Liberal surge (by-election wins and v.good local election results) and a 1% swing from Con to Lab. Seats to change hands - The Libs would retain their by-election gains (Berwick, Ely, Rochdale, Ripon, Sutton) and gain 29 Con seats - Aberdeenshire W, Bodmin, Carshalton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Chingford, Chippenham, Devon W, Dorset N, Eastbourne, Enfield N, Essex SE, Hazel Grove, Hemel Hempstead, High Peak, Liverpool Wavertree, Manchester Moss Side and Withington, Nantwich, Orpington, Richmond, Ross & Cromarty, St. Ives, Scarborough, Southend East and West, Truro, Wallasey, Westmorland and ten Lab seats - Caithness & Sutherland, Cardigan, Chester le Street, Colne Valley, Huddersfield W, Liverpool Edge Hill/Kirkdale/Toxteth/West Derby, Greenock & Port Glasgow. SNP gains from Con - Aberdeenshire E, Argyll; gains from Lab - Hamilton, West Lothian and retain Glasgow Govan (gained at by-election). PC gain from Con - Pembrokeshire; gains from Lab - Caernarvon, Camarthen, Merionethshire. Other wins being - Fermanagh, Mid-Ulster, Belfast W, Western Isles, Wirral and Lincoln. No mention of possible Con/Lab changes. I have yet to find a Figgis forecast for October 1974. It was a difficult election to call. It initially looked like an easy Tory win. I was in my final year at Manchester University and Professor Samuel Finer who was a top analyst suggested in a tutorial that the Conservatives would win although it was a fascinating campaign. As the campaign went on the Liberal vote started to surge upwards. The key question was where were their extra votes coming from. Many made the assumption that they would come equally from Conservative and Labour. In the final analysis they seemed to have taken three votes from the Tories to every two votes from Labour. That left the Conservatives very narrowly ahead on votes and Labour ahead on seats. It was a kind of revenge for 1951. The Libs took votes from Labour where it made little difference and votes from the Tories where it did. The polls did point to a hung parliament if turnout increased (plus the unwind of the 'Powell' swing in a few select constituencies although there's a 3-day week factor in those seats). Heath would likely have scraped a narrow lead (but not a majority) if the polls had been correct.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,360
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 5, 2024 12:57:27 GMT
It was a difficult election to call. It initially looked like an easy Tory win. I was in my final year at Manchester University and Professor Samuel Finer who was a top analyst suggested in a tutorial that the Conservatives would win although it was a fascinating campaign. As the campaign went on the Liberal vote started to surge upwards. The key question was where were their extra votes coming from. Many made the assumption that they would come equally from Conservative and Labour. In the final analysis they seemed to have taken three votes from the Tories to every two votes from Labour. That left the Conservatives very narrowly ahead on votes and Labour ahead on seats. It was a kind of revenge for 1951. The Libs took votes from Labour where it made little difference and votes from the Tories where it did. The polls did point to a hung parliament if turnout increased (plus the unwind of the 'Powell' swing in a few select constituencies although there's a 3-day week factor in those seats). Heath would likely have scraped a narrow lead (but not a majority) if the polls had been correct. Though in terms of percentage errors the polls did better than 1970 especially Gallup
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,360
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 5, 2024 12:57:51 GMT
An election forecast for February 1974...that was somewhat wide of the mark. Major E. Lenox Figgis, writer of gambling/probability books, published his forecast in the Daily Express. He claimed a near perfect prediction for 1955/1959/1964 & 1970 although he admitted underestimating Labour by 15 seats in 1966. The Figgis forecast for 1974 - CON 304, LAB 266, LIB 50 and Others 15. Boundary changes to have increased the Tory majority from 30 to 75! Maj. Figgis based his forecast upon a Liberal surge (by-election wins and v.good local election results) and a 1% swing from Con to Lab. Seats to change hands - The Libs would retain their by-election gains (Berwick, Ely, Rochdale, Ripon, Sutton) and gain 29 Con seats - Aberdeenshire W, Bodmin, Carshalton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Chingford, Chippenham, Devon W, Dorset N, Eastbourne, Enfield N, Essex SE, Hazel Grove, Hemel Hempstead, High Peak, Liverpool Wavertree, Manchester Moss Side and Withington, Nantwich, Orpington, Richmond, Ross & Cromarty, St. Ives, Scarborough, Southend East and West, Truro, Wallasey, Westmorland and ten Lab seats - Caithness & Sutherland, Cardigan, Chester le Street, Colne Valley, Huddersfield W, Liverpool Edge Hill/Kirkdale/Toxteth/West Derby, Greenock & Port Glasgow. SNP gains from Con - Aberdeenshire E, Argyll; gains from Lab - Hamilton, West Lothian and retain Glasgow Govan (gained at by-election). PC gain from Con - Pembrokeshire; gains from Lab - Caernarvon, Camarthen, Merionethshire. Other wins being - Fermanagh, Mid-Ulster, Belfast W, Western Isles, Wirral and Lincoln. No mention of possible Con/Lab changes. I have yet to find a Figgis forecast for October 1974. It was a difficult election to call. It initially looked like an easy Tory win. I was in my final year at Manchester University and Professor Samuel Finer who was a top analyst suggested in a tutorial that the Conservatives would win although it was a fascinating campaign. As the campaign went on the Liberal vote started to surge upwards. The key question was where were their extra votes coming from. Many made the assumption that they would come equally from Conservative and Labour. In the final analysis they seemed to have taken three votes from the Tories to every two votes from Labour. That left the Conservatives very narrowly ahead on votes and Labour ahead on seats. It was a kind of revenge for 1951. Which was a revenge for 1929!
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