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Post by mrpastelito on May 16, 2016 10:53:29 GMT
Could you please add a NOTA option? I mean, basically it's a choice between Nazi and Communist. Hyperbole for both of them. What gives you the idea that Van Der Bellen should be a "Communist"? He is a fairly centrist and pragmatic guy with cross-over appeal to centre-right voters. His grandparents, father and uncles fled the Bolsheviks to Estonia after the Revolution, and when Estonia was invaded by the Soviets in 1940 his parents fled to Germany, then moved to Vienna and fled the Soviets to Tyrol in 1945. So his family fled the Communists thrice. All of which oddly didn't stop him from voting communist in his younger years. It's true that by Green party standards he appears rather moderate, in a way that Stalin appeared moderate in comparison to Trotsky  Anyway, the point I was trying to make was that Hofer v VDB is national socialist v international socialist, and I couldn't bring myself to vote for either. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,916
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Post by The Bishop on May 16, 2016 14:21:14 GMT
A surprising number of people at least flirted with communism in their "younger years", including some who later became very right wing indeed.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 16, 2016 15:43:52 GMT
If he were a communist, Austria has a particularly vile communist party he could have joined.
Equally, Hofer and the FPOe are not NS lite. They are the product of Austria's many complex political aspects.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813 
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 17, 2016 17:35:57 GMT
Sorry for interrupting Your discussion, but I made another map (participation last time, when ÖVP didn't run):  |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 21, 2016 21:40:50 GMT
Summing up the campaign:
In the first weeks the attention was occupied by the SPÖ (Faymann-retreat?, FPÖ-coalition?). Thus the atmosphere was far less hysterical than expected. Still, numberless SPÖ-politicians endorsed v.d.Bellen, then Griss plus NEOS and ÖVP-lefties (as usual exEUcommissioner Fischler and exPartyLeader Busek, but also his collegues Riegler and Molterer aso.), finally Juncker (!) -, while Hofer is openly supported only by the old SuffraganBishop of Salzburg (speaking for the few thousand remaining Catholics of Austria). So I saw no possibility for Hofer to gain enough voters, especially as some hope for recovery came back with the new PrimeMinister.
Then the leftwing state-owned television (ORF) tried to kill Hofer finally by broadcasting, that the Likud-exVicePresident of the Knesset couldn't remember a meeting with Hofer, nor that a woman was killed near Hofer. But later ORF had to admit, that a woman was indeed shot (albeit not killed). This overspinning will certainly have helped Hofer among ProtestVoters.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 21, 2016 21:54:18 GMT
PollingStations are going to close at 17 MET. There's a new record of PostalVotes (900.000), which are counted once again on monday and should give v.d.Bellen ~2% more. Additionally we have to remind, that at 17.00-projections the big cities (Vienna,...) will be entirely uncounted. (There was - expectably - a huge discrepancy between land and cities already in the FirstRound.) Perhaps You can find LiveStreams somewhere at: www.orf.atwww.atv.atwww.puls4.comwww.servustv.comOfficial results can be found under www.wahl16.bmi.gv.at |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 22, 2016 2:02:39 GMT
After the debacle a month ago only 3 OpinionPolls were published:
2 by Gallup (first one 50:50, AllAustrians 53 Hofer, those certain to vote favouring v.d.Bellen; second one 52/53 Hofer) and 1 by MindTake (Hofer slightly ahead, 30% undecided), a new pollster, working for ServusTV, who came out on ElectionDay with Hofer at 29% (still 6% too low, but better than what the others had predicted).
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 22, 2016 3:03:55 GMT
Not only the flags of Peru and Austria are both RedWhiteRed, also the situation for the RunOff is quite identical.
But - very different to Peru - I myself can still not imagine, that a FPÖ-candidate could ever receive a majority (not even MotherTherese would be able to).
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,706
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Post by mboy on May 22, 2016 8:37:51 GMT
So world I be right that, the polls have typically understated Hofer, and the last polls had Hofer fractionally ahead? Is there a betting market? It might be a good indication.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2016 10:31:11 GMT
Summing up the campaign: In the first weeks the attention was occupied by the SPÖ (Faymann-retreat?, FPÖ-coalition?). Thus the atmosphere was far less hysterical than expected. Still, numberless SPÖ-politicians endorsed v.d.Bellen, then Griss plus NEOS and ÖVP-lefties (as usual exEUcommissioner Fischler and exPartyLeader Busek, but also his collegues Riegler and Molterer aso.), finally Juncker (!) -, while Hofer is openly supported only by the old SuffraganBishop of Salzburg (speaking for the few thousand remaining Catholics of Austria). So I saw no possibility for Hofer to gain enough voters, especially as some hope for recovery came back with the new PrimeMinister. Then the leftwing state-owned television (ORF) tried to kill Hofer finally by broadcasting, that the Likud-exVicePresident of the Knesset couldn't remember a meeting with Hofer, nor that a woman was killed near Hofer. But later ORF had to admit, that a woman was indeed shot (albeit not killed). This overspinning will certainly have helped Hofer among ProtestVoters. Georg it would be nice if you used first names for people as well. Makes it a lot easier to google them. (Franz Fischler is well known, but for those of us not following Austrian politics regularly the others aren't necessarily) |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 22, 2016 13:17:11 GMT
Summing up the campaign: In the first weeks the attention was occupied by the SPÖ (Faymann-retreat?, FPÖ-coalition?). Thus the atmosphere was far less hysterical than expected. Still, numberless SPÖ-politicians endorsed v.d.Bellen, then Griss plus NEOS and ÖVP-lefties (as usual exEUcommissioner Fischler and exPartyLeader Busek, but also his collegues Riegler and Molterer aso.), finally Juncker (!) -, while Hofer is openly supported only by the old SuffraganBishop of Salzburg (speaking for the few thousand remaining Catholics of Austria). So I saw no possibility for Hofer to gain enough voters, especially as some hope for recovery came back with the new PrimeMinister. Then the leftwing state-owned television (ORF) tried to kill Hofer finally by broadcasting, that the Likud-exVicePresident of the Knesset couldn't remember a meeting with Hofer, nor that a woman was killed near Hofer. But later ORF had to admit, that a woman was indeed shot (albeit not killed). This overspinning will certainly have helped Hofer among ProtestVoters. Georg it would be nice if you used first names for people as well. Makes it a lot easier to google them. (Franz Fischler is well known, but for those of us not following Austrian politics regularly the others aren't necessarily) Odo! Fischler, Busek, Molterer are rare names, "Riegler" + "ÖVP" should be no problem, too. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 22, 2016 13:18:44 GMT
TurnOut is reported to be higher than last time (despite wonderful weather).
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 22, 2016 13:22:30 GMT
So world I be right that, the polls have typically understated Hofer, and the last polls had Hofer fractionally ahead? Is there a being market? It might be a good indication. Sure, most experts expect a Hofer-win. If the pollsters were as wrong as one month ago, Hofer would end around 60%! |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2016 13:39:18 GMT
Georg it would be nice if you used first names for people as well. Makes it a lot easier to google them. (Franz Fischler is well known, but for those of us not following Austrian politics regularly the others aren't necessarily) Odo! Fischler, Busek, Molterer are rare names, "Riegler" + "ÖVP" should be no problem, too. Well, it would still be helpful if you used first names. |
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Post by iainbhx on May 22, 2016 14:41:10 GMT
So world I be right that, the polls have typically understated Hofer, and the last polls had Hofer fractionally ahead? Is there a being market? It might be a good indication. Sure, most experts expect a Hofer-win. If the pollsters were as wrong as one month ago, Hofer would end around 60%! I have seen an early projection on twitter of Höfer 54-VdBellen 46. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,028
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Post by Sibboleth on May 22, 2016 15:05:32 GMT
Exit poll is 50/50...
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,028
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Post by Sibboleth on May 22, 2016 15:10:16 GMT
A thing to note as actual results come in: postal votes are counted later and will almost certainly be better for VdB than day votes.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 22, 2016 15:24:04 GMT
Surely the highest hard-right vote in a free and fair election in Europe? Even when they've appeared in other two-horse races. |
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Post by iainbhx on May 22, 2016 15:26:16 GMT
A thing to note as actual results come in: postal votes are counted later and will almost certainly be better for VdB than day votes. And Wien will declare last. Höfer reported to be on 38% in Wien. |
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Roger Harmer
Lib Dem
Councillor for Acocks Green in Birmingham
Posts: 247
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Post by Roger Harmer on May 22, 2016 16:30:17 GMT
Its been 50.0 vs 50.0 for a while on ORF.at. I presume its still likely to favour VdB in the end.
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