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Post by iainbhx on May 22, 2016 17:09:43 GMT
Its been 50.0 vs 50.0 for a while on ORF.at. I presume its still likely to favour VdB in the end. The consensus is that the postal votes counted tomorrow will swing it for van der Bellen. |
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Post by iainbhx on May 22, 2016 17:11:56 GMT
Without postal votes
Ing. Norbert Höfer 1.937.863 51,9 %
Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen 1.793.857 48,1 %
The prediction is that Van der Bellen will win by around 1,500 votes.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 22, 2016 17:22:12 GMT
Van der Bellen needs something like 59% of the absentee ballots to win.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 22, 2016 17:57:21 GMT
For reasons best known to themselves, the Austrian Greens youth wing decided today that putting out a tweet calling Austria "Naz1land" was a great idea. Presumably to attract those people who were undecided. Krone reports that Burgenland, at 62%, had the highest FPOe vote amongst the Laender. Highest FPOe vote in any Bezirk appears to be Tamsweg which I believe is in Salzburg-Land, at 71%. bpwahl.krone.at/presidential/index.html?apaactualSection=apaMap |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 22, 2016 18:05:44 GMT
Without postal votes Ing. Norbert Höfer 1.937.863 51,9 % Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen 1.793.857 48,1 % The prediction is that Van der Bellen will win by around 1,500 votes. I don't know how the prediction can be as precise as that when there as many as 144,000 votes between the candidates without postal ballots. |
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Post by middleenglander on May 22, 2016 18:19:17 GMT
Without postal votes Ing. Norbert Höfer 1.937.863 51,9 % Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen 1.793.857 48,1 % The prediction is that Van der Bellen will win by around 1,500 votes. I don't know how the prediction can be as precise as that when there as many as 144,000 votes between the candidates without postal ballots. Remember the adage: It is not who votes that counts, but who counts the votes that counts. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on May 22, 2016 18:21:28 GMT
Its based on past trends.
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Post by Merseymike on May 22, 2016 18:42:05 GMT
This does show the problem with grand coalitions. Who is there to act as opposition?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 22, 2016 19:09:08 GMT
It seems to end very closely tomorrow.
So this time it could eventually be really decisive, that Vienna's CivilServants fill PostalVotes out for the mentally ill...
Unfortunately it's not - as far as I know - clear, what happens, if the president cannot be sworn in in July because of an objection.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 22, 2016 19:55:32 GMT
Its been 50.0 vs 50.0 for a while on ORF.at. I presume its still likely to favour VdB in the end. The consensus is that the postal votes counted tomorrow will swing it for van der Bellen. I'm not sure how you can say there is "consensus" that Bellen will win it by 0.04%!!! |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 22, 2016 19:57:17 GMT
Van der Bellen needs something like 59% of the absentee ballots to win. Austrian postal vote demographics must be very different to ours for that even to be a possibility. |
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Post by iainbhx on May 22, 2016 20:00:26 GMT
Van der Bellen needs something like 59% of the absentee ballots to win. Austrian postal vote demographics must be very different to ours for that even to be a possibility. I've seen much greater differences from the result than that for the postal vote and not all of them in Sparkhill ward.  |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 22, 2016 20:14:20 GMT
If we assume, that once again 83.30% of the requested PostalVotes are returned&valid, then v.d.Bellen would need 59.76%. That's roughly, what was expected in the projections, making it very close. It'll depend, whose supporters are those 250.000 new PostalVoters.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 22, 2016 20:24:58 GMT
Austrian postal vote demographics must be very different to ours for that even to be a possibility. I've seen much greater differences from the result than that for the postal vote and not all of them in Sparkhill ward. Yes, but I mean that in the UK the postal votes are mainly the elderly and tilt more to the right. The Greens in particular are nowhere in postal votes. |
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Post by Merseymike on May 22, 2016 20:27:24 GMT
I've seen much greater differences from the result than that for the postal vote and not all of them in Sparkhill ward. Yes, but I mean that in the UK the postal votes are mainly the elderly and tilt more to the right. The Greens in particular are nowhere in postal votes. Eh? Used to be but Labour are well ahead in areas where they focus in signing up postal voters. Remember Oldham West? |
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Post by iainbhx on May 22, 2016 20:56:29 GMT
I've seen much greater differences from the result than that for the postal vote and not all of them in Sparkhill ward. Yes, but I mean that in the UK the postal votes are mainly the elderly and tilt more to the right. The Greens in particular are nowhere in postal votes. A lot of postal votes are cast by expats I understand. |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 22, 2016 22:32:51 GMT
Its based on past trends. I'm not sure how past trends can be much help when there hasn't before been a run-off in an Austrian presidential election between candidates from these two parties... |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on May 22, 2016 23:01:16 GMT
Its based on past trends. I'm not sure how past trends can be much help when there hasn't before been a run-off in an Austrian presidential election between candidates from these two parties... In the first round, projection without postals were correct for 4 of the 6 candidates, but 2% better than the first projection for Greens and 2% for FPO. |
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Post by MeirionGwril on May 23, 2016 11:25:31 GMT
Anyone know when the postal votes are set to 'declared'?
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Post by marksenior on May 23, 2016 11:27:51 GMT
Counting now , 260,000 so far 61.6% to Van der Bellen
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