Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 29, 2016 1:04:18 GMT
Gallup is out with a first poll for the RunOff:
v.d.Bellen:Hofer=50:50
Decided 42:43
UnDecided are rather v.d.Bellen-voters (women, Tyrol&Vorarlberg).
HundstorferVoters 77:16
KholVoters 66:22
Griss oters 6?:??
NonVoters 18:32
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Apr 29, 2016 18:46:35 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2016 18:59:18 GMT
What poll is it based on? |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Apr 29, 2016 19:09:10 GMT
Dunno - it was all in German.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 29, 2016 23:29:49 GMT
What poll is it based on? Absolutely none. It's a mathematical projection based on reports guesswork by the journalist. |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 3, 2016 22:13:49 GMT
VanDerBellen spoke in front of german GREENS, that he wants the USE (United States of Europe) and bases his hopes on a europephile youth ("Erasmus-generation") and the immigrants.
Surprisingly FPÖ hasn't begun a ProtestStorm immediately.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 3, 2016 22:45:22 GMT
Most think, that the austrian president is only a ceremonial post. Surely, those provided by the SPÖ (1945-86, 2004-16) tried to be notaries and eunuchs as much as possible and ÖVP's Waldheim and Klestil were blocked by Vranitzky.
Nontheless, the government traditionally offers a new president its retreat and if Hofer were president, he could simply accept it reasonless, appoint Strache as new Chancellor, who would please him to dissolve the parliament before it can start an impeachment.
This won't happen immediately, as it would damage FPÖ too much, but somewhen later...
Not only I warned (~9 years ago) several politicians unsuccessfully, also experts did so (among them prof. Khol).
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 4, 2016 6:47:46 GMT
VanDerBellen spoke in front of german GREENS, that he wants the USE (United States of Europe) and bases his hopes on a europephile youth ("Erasmus-generation") and the immigrants. Surprisingly FPÖ hasn't begun a ProtestStorm immediately. Are Austrians as indoctrinated about the EU as some other countries? I remember teaching a polytechnic class in Belgium ten years ago who listened in amused horror as I explained what I thought was wrong with it- most of them had never heard that anyone had any objections to any aspect of it. I found that to be a fairly common theme. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 4, 2016 6:49:14 GMT
Most think, that the austrian president is only a ceremonial post. Surely, those provided by the SPÖ (1945-86, 2004-16) tried to be notaries and eunuchs as much as possible and ÖVP's Waldheim and Klestil were blocked by Vranitzky. Nontheless, the government traditionally offers a new president its retreat and if Hofer were president, he could simply accept it reasonless, appoint Strache as new Chancellor, who would please him to dissolve the parliament before it can start an impeachment. This won't happen immediately, as it would damage FPÖ too much, but somewhen later... Not only I warned (~9 years ago) several politicians unsuccessfully, also experts did so (among them prof. Khol). Or maybe he tells Proporz to carry on, and uses an awkward cohabitation to his benefit? |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 4, 2016 15:31:17 GMT
VanDerBellen spoke in front of german GREENS, that he wants the USE (United States of Europe) and bases his hopes on a europephile youth ("Erasmus-generation") and the immigrants. Surprisingly FPÖ hasn't begun a ProtestStorm immediately. Are Austrians as indoctrinated about the EU as some other countries? I remember teaching a polytechnic class in Belgium ten years ago who listened in amused horror as I explained what I thought was wrong with it- most of them had never heard that anyone had any objections to any aspect of it. I found that to be a fairly common theme. Especially at schools there is a lot of direct propaganda here, too. If You are anti-EU but add, that You are a LeftWinger (or at least non-FPÖ), it won't cause major problems. |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 4, 2016 15:32:07 GMT
Fischer (SPÖ) in 2010:  |
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Georg Ebner
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Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 4, 2016 17:41:21 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2016 20:40:41 GMT
MoE ± 4,4% = trash Thats an average within a rather wide "bandwith". And its 50/50 among certain voters. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2016 20:52:50 GMT
It is remarkably close to the Gallop result however. They could both be out but it looks as though the FPO might be on course to win a national election in Austria for the first time ever. "Among the Hofer-voters are extremely many undecided protest voters, who firstly have not yet decided whether they will even go to the polls - and secondly, if they then will choose FPÖ." The Gallup poll has 43-51 and 49-57 "bands" - 53/47 is just the average. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2016 21:17:31 GMT
"Among the Hofer-voters are extremely many undecided protest voters, who firstly have not yet decided whether they will even go to the polls - and secondly, if they then will choose FPÖ." The Gallup poll has 43-51 and 49-57 "bands" - 53/47 is just the average. You suspect that it is more likely that Van der Bellen is in the lead? No, but he has the secure vote, which gives him better odds. Hofer's vote is very volatile. I think that's more important than who leads. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2016 12:03:30 GMT
Going to be very close, I am predicting 50.5 to 49.5 to FPO and celebrations for the right across Europe.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2016 13:29:29 GMT
Going to be very close, I am predicting 50.5 to 49.5 to FPO Based on what? Just wishful thinking? |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on May 15, 2016 21:05:03 GMT
In any case, if VdB leads in the first results, he wins. First results come from rural areas and Greens always overperform in postal votes (counted the day after) and FPO always underperform (it's due to the nature of who vote by post, which is mainly urban educated people, bad fit for FPO).
For 1st round, difference between first results/projection vs. final resuls with postals.
FPO: -1.6
VdB: +1.6
Griss: +0.1
SPO: +0.1
OVP: -0.1
Lugner: -0.1
And that's assuming postal voting rates are staying the same, when various reports suggest a rise (which would be bad for Hofer).
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Post by mrpastelito on May 15, 2016 21:13:20 GMT
Could you please add a NOTA option? I mean, basically it's a choice between Nazi and Communist.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2016 23:01:48 GMT
Could you please add a NOTA option? I mean, basically it's a choice between Nazi and Communist. Hyperbole for both of them. What gives you the idea that Van Der Bellen should be a "Communist"? He is a fairly centrist and pragmatic guy with cross-over appeal to centre-right voters. His grandparents, father and uncles fled the Bolsheviks to Estonia after the Revolution, and when Estonia was invaded by the Soviets in 1940 his parents fled to Germany, then moved to Vienna and fled the Soviets to Tyrol in 1945. So his family fled the Communists thrice. |
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