Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 25, 2016 9:14:21 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2016 9:16:47 GMT
Why are you making all these maps before the postal votes are counted? They will be inaccurate.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 25, 2016 9:17:34 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 25, 2016 9:20:31 GMT
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 25, 2016 9:20:45 GMT
Why are you making all these maps before the postal votes are counted? They will be inaccurate. If I'm not wrong, postal vote is counted by district, so it will change nothing to town results and to Vienna precinct results. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 25, 2016 9:23:34 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 25, 2016 9:27:24 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 25, 2016 9:30:22 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 25, 2016 9:33:51 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 25, 2016 9:48:08 GMT
SORA:    (Let us remind, that this pollster is used by ORF and copied by the NewsPapers, thus having unfortunately a hegemony in the public. Nontheless other pollsters are going to publish very different numbers!) |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 26, 2016 12:01:54 GMT
The provisorical FinalResult:  PostalVotes let SPÖ pass ÖVP. So far ÖVP has performed better among PVs than SPÖ, but the latter have become stronger and stronger for many years, making it less remarkable. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 26, 2016 12:04:38 GMT
The strongest candidate per district:  VanDerBellen managed to "win" Meidling, Mödling and Linz, but failed (expectably) in SalzburgCity and Vorarlberg's Bregenz and Dornbirn. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 26, 2016 12:15:28 GMT
Post festum a pollster from SORA stated, that the InternalPolls in the final week (all companies had agreed to publish none then) would have shown them the Hofer-surge. But ISA (which is connected with SORA) published, that Griss gained many and more of these LatestDeciders: www.strategieanalysen.at/wahlen/bp2016/zeitpunkt.php |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 26, 2016 12:21:31 GMT
The deviations of the different pollsters (thankfully taken from www.neuwal.com):
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 26, 2016 12:27:56 GMT
You see the catastrophical failure, nearly as large as mine, when I meant (after the chaotical NominationProcedure of Hofer), that he would end around 10%... (But I didn't expect the left journalists to preserve Hofer.)
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 26, 2016 13:51:08 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 26, 2016 14:19:59 GMT
Different VoterStreamAnalysis from different pollsters (comparisons to NRW'13): SORA (already posted):  Fessel&GfK:  StatisticalOffice of LandOberösterreich (naturally only for UpperAustria):  the CounterPart from LandSalzburg:  |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 26, 2016 16:00:34 GMT
That polling suggests to me that Stronach voters will break for FPOe and NEOS at the next parliamentary election.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 28, 2016 21:24:18 GMT
That polling suggests to me that Stronach voters will break for FPOe and NEOS at the next parliamentary election. TS-voters going to NEOS is odd. (After the last election 2013 Mrs.Nachbaur tried to attract Liberals ["NeoLiberals"], without much success. So some of these might go to NEOS, but the latter have few to offer to real Liberals. [They are vaguely for "privatizations" without naming which; for a FreeMarket incl. Russia.]) |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 29, 2016 0:58:06 GMT
Pollster OGM claims as well as SORA, that their final poll showed a huge lead of Hofer.
But Faymann and Mitterlehner pleased them, they say, to keep it secret.
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