By-Elections - 5th July 2012

[greatkingrat]

CHESTERFIELD - St Helens (Labour died)

2011 - Lab 852/783, LD 541/442
2007 - LD 829/781, Lab 444/422
2003 - LD 978/845, Lab 631/578, SocAll 75

Kate BARKER (Green Party)
Shelley DALE (Conservative Party)
Keith LOMAS (UK Independence Party)
Tom MURPHY (Labour Party)
Tony ROGERS (Liberal Democrats)

FYLDE - Heyhouses (Conservative resigned)[/u]

2011 - Con 839/723/681, LD 557/488
2007 - Con 821/792/699, LD 643, Lab 332
2003 - Con 763/752/699, LD 515/447, Lab 290

Bill DICKSON (UK Independence Party)
Carol GILLIGAN (Liberal Democrat)
Barbara NASH (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Ian ROBERTS (Green Party)
Palmira STAFFORD (Independent)
Bill WHITEHEAD (Integrity UK Where People Matter)

KINGSTON-UPON-THAMES - Grove (Liberal Democrat resigned)

2010 - LD 2527/2391/2037, Con 1505/1475/1390, Grn 713, Lab 618/584/576, Ind 272
2006 - LD 1186/1059/1000, Con 881/814/782, Grn 452, Lab 231/205/203
2004by - LD 948, Con 513, Lab 213, Grn 105, ED 26, SocLab 17
2002 - LD 1290/1287/1172, Con 616/603/576, Grn 148/115/99, Lab 132/122, CPA 42

Adrian AMER (The Conservative Party Candidate)
David CHILD (British National Party)
Ryan COLEY (Green Party)
Rebekah MOLL (Liberal Democrat Focus Team)
Jonathan RUDD (Christian Peoples Alliance)
Laurie SOUTH (The Labour Party Candidate)
Michael WATSON (UK Independence Party)

LIVERPOOL - Allerton and Hunts Cross (Liberal Democrat resigned - since died)

2012 - Lab 2465, LD 711, Con 379, Grn 237, Lib 201
2011 - Lab 2572, LD 1245, Con 376, UKIP 200, Grn 135, Lib 134
2010 - LD 3145, Lab 2750, Con 1010, Grn 270
2008 - LD 1605, Con 737, Lab 684, Grn 171, Lib 108
2007 - LD 1700, Lab 661, Con 587, Grn 165, Lib 135
2006 - LD 1619, Lab 687, Con 556, Grn 211, Lib 194

Christopher HALL (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Christopher HULME (LIberal Party Candidate and Local Resident)
Mima JUAREZ (Liberal Democrat)
Rachael O'BYRNE (Labour Party Candidate)
Lynne WILD (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts)
Margaret WILLIAMS (Green Party)

LIVERPOOL - Riverside (Labour disqualified - elected mayor)

2012 - Lab 2666, Grn 191, Con 139, TUSC 109, ED 103, Lib 66
2011 - Lab 2836, Con 201, LD 198, Grn 196, TUSC 88, Lib 30
2010 - Lab 3978, LD 1022, Con 420, Grn 281, Lib 193
2008 - Lab 1858, LD 202, Con 189, Grn 184, Lib 102
2007 - Lab 1678, LD 252, Con 241, Grn 184, Lib 63
2006 - Lab 1562, LD 267, Con 205, Grn 180, Lib 90, UtdSoc 64

Nicola BECKETT (Liberal Democrats)
Peter CRANIE (Green Party)
Christopher MCDERMOTT (Trade Unionists and Socialists against Cuts)
Alma MCGING (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Heather WOOD (The Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate)

MALDON - Tollesbury (Conservative died)

2011 - Con 358, Lab 268, Grn 120
2007 - Ind 422, Con 199
2003 - Ind 315, Con 187

Gerald MUNSON (Independent)
Stevan SLODZIK (The Labour Party Candidate)
Andrew ST JOSEPH (The Conservative Party Candidate)

MALVERN HILLS - West (Green resigned)

2011 - Grn 798/710, Con 667/566, UKIP 171
2007 - Grn 654, Con 457/426, LD 451/422
2003 - Grn 641, LD 617, Con 342/264

Chris BURROWS (Labour Party)
Jenny KELLY (Conservative Party)
Julian ROSKAMS (Green Party)
Sarah ROUSE (Independent)
Michael SAVAGE (UK Independence Party)

The local LD party have officially endorsed the Greens here.

THANET - Westgate-on-Sea (Conservative died)

2011 - Ind 853, Con 793/751/675, Lab 555/528/444, UKIP 283
2007 - Con 754/687/673, Ind 696/552, Lab 315/269/227, Grn 231, Grey 213
2003 - Con 904/855/783, Lab 514/481/457, BNP 280

Ash ASHBEE (Independent)
Jeffrey ELENOR (UK Independence Party)
Bill FURNESS (Liberal Democrat)
Jodie HIBBERT (The Labour Party Candidate)
James MASKELL (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Claire MENDELSOHN (Independent)

TONBRIDGE AND MALLING - West Malling and Leybourne (Conservative died)

2011 - Con 1234/1147/1137, LD 489/402/350, Lab 361, UKIP 296
2007 - Con 987/972/915, LD 662/618/597
2003 - Con 1253/1134/1072, LD 621/544/529, Lab 148, UKIP 114

Kathleen GARLICK (The Labour Party Candidate)
Howard PORTER (Green Party)
Sophie SHRUBSOLE (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Yvonne SMYTH (Liberal Democrat)
Peter STEVENS (UK Independence Party)
Michael WALTERS (English Democrats - Putting England First!)

We appear to have some particularly incompetent councils this week - Liverpool have no mention whatsoever of their two by-elections, while Malvern Hills appear to have overwritten the 2011 results page with a town council by-election result.

[Andrew_S]

2011 Malvern Hills results from a local newspaper:

www.malverngazette.co.uk/news/local_elections_2011/


Result for West:

Green 798/710
Con 667/566
UKIP 171

[The Bishop]

Bit of a poor show that Labour are not standing anybody in Fylde, tbh.

[Andrew_S]

Must be a fair number of people eligible to vote in these 9 by-elections, maybe as many as 50,000.

[thirdchill]

Am quite disappointed with liverpool council on this, don't know why it's taking so long. I know nothing has been published yet because otherwise it would have appeared in the David Bartlett Blog on the liverpool echo website.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Adrian Amer, the Conservative candidate in Kingston, is a former member of the Liberal Party who stood as Liberal candidate in the 1992 election (the sitting MP was then Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont, so the declaration was televised).

His election material contains some interesting touches - the description of him as a "crime-fighting barrister" implies some sort of Judge Dredd type figure. (Actually he's both prosecuted and defended, like most criminal barristers)

But why end the description of him with the comment "While sympathetic to all forms of humanity, he does not suffer fools gladly"? That's a well known euphemism.

[East Anglian Lefty]

That's a fairly strong 2011 result for Labour in Tollesbury, as it's not the sort of area that would strike me as fertile ground for us. Was that with the same candidate as is standing in the by-election? If so, he's probably got a strong enough personal vote to stand a chance of winning. If not, I'd expect us to fade quite significantly.

[greatkingrat]

Yes, it is the same Labour candidate as in 2011.

[Andrew_S]

These are the December 2010 electorates. I can't find the December 2011 electorates page online:

Chesterfield - St Helen's: 3,336
Fylde - Heyhouses: 3,676
Kingston-upon-Thames - Grove: 7,145
Liverpool - Allerton & Hunts Cross: 10,961
Liverpool - Riverside: 11,047
Maldon - Tollesbury: 1,616
Malvern Hills - West: 3,240
Thanet - Westgate-on-Sea: 5,068
Tonbridge & Malling - West Malling & Leybourne: 4,467

Total: 50,556

[erlend]

I suspect the vote distribution there is slightly redder than the UK average (eg comparing 2011 with the BBC guesstimate) but may still be an interesting sample. The Liverpool seats are 2 deat cert Labour wins (1 gain) and the Chesterfield result would be quite a shock to me to be other than a hold. Of the others nothing looks obvious to change between the main parties although I wonder about Maldon minus a Green plus an Indie. And finally Malvern Hills. Greens have a poor record in byelections but (if they are standing) I would put them favourites.

I think the sample is probably big enough however to see the swing overall since 2011 (bar Kingston in other words) as interesting.

[Harold Wilson]

The Labour party in Tollesbury has been out working hard for the by-election. The last Labour councillor for Tollesbury was in the 1930's and it looks like a 3 horse race this time !

[ColinJ]

Jun 13, 2012 19:12:21 GMT Andrew_S said:

These are the December 2010 electorates. I can't find the December 2011 electorates page online:

Chesterfield - St Helen's: 3,336 3,361 in 2011
Fylde - Heyhouses: 3,676 3,701 in 2011
Kingston-upon-Thames - Grove: 7,145
Liverpool - Allerton & Hunts Cross: 10,961 10,958 in 2011
Liverpool - Riverside: 11,047 11,339 in 2011
Maldon - Tollesbury: 1,616 1,593 in 2011
Malvern Hills - West: 3,240 3,249 in 2011
Thanet - Westgate-on-Sea: 5,068 5,079 in 2011
Tonbridge & Malling - West Malling & Leybourne: 4,467 4,479 in 2011
Total: 50,556

Electorate figures in bold for May 2011 elections from Rallings and Thrasher. Not much change anywhere except Liverpool Riverside.

[erlend]

I think if David were hiding under an assumed name he is bright enough not to call himself Harold Wilson or call himself a Labour Party member.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jun 18, 2012 10:03:14 GMT @boogieeck said:

Jun 17, 2012 20:12:29 GMT Harold Wilson said:

The Labour party in Tollesbury has been out working hard for the by-election. The last Labour councillor for Tollesbury was in the 1930's and it looks like a 3 horse race this time !

Boothroyd, are you sockpuppeting?

I'm not the only Labour Party member to have a soft spot for dear old Harold Wilson, you know!

[ColinJ]

Jun 18, 2012 11:06:40 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I'm not the only Labour Party member to have a soft spot for dear old Harold Wilson, you know!

Spot on, David. Harold's top of my hit parade. Winning 4 out of 5 General Elections was pretty cool.

[The Bishop]

Jun 18, 2012 17:47:52 GMT ColinJ said:

Spot on, David. Harold's top of my hit parade. Winning 4 out of 5 General Elections was pretty cool.

Well, three and a half

[john07]

Jun 18, 2012 17:47:52 GMT ColinJ said:

Jun 18, 2012 11:06:40 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I'm not the only Labour Party member to have a soft spot for dear old Harold Wilson, you know!

Spot on, David. Harold's top of my hit parade. Winning 4 out of 5 General Elections was pretty cool.

I was also a great fan of Wilson.

I warmed up for him at a public meeting at Brinnington Labour Club back in 1979. It was some experience only bettered by an earlier meeting in Stockport when I appeared on a platform with then Prime Minister Jim Callaghan.

[ColinJ]

Jun 18, 2012 18:50:48 GMT john07 said:

Jun 18, 2012 17:47:52 GMT ColinJ said:

Spot on, David. Harold's top of my hit parade. Winning 4 out of 5 General Elections was pretty cool.

I was also a great fan of Wilson.

I warmed up for him at a public meeting at Brinnington Labour Club back in 1979. It was some experience only bettered by an earlier meeting in Stockport when I appeared on a platform with then Prime Minister Jim Callaghan.

How interesting. How was Harold in 1979? This would have been three years after he resigned as PM, aware then of the first signs of Alzheimer's.

I had a nice 'Wilson' experience a few years ago. Having purchased second-hand David Howell's book 'British Social Democracy', I was astonished to find on the title page Harold Wilson's signature. Unwittingly I had purchased his personal copy.

[The Bishop]

Wilson would have been 63 then (assuming this was around GE time)

It was not long after that he had his disastrous attempt at TV presenting - which made many who knew him think that all was not well.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Wilson's problems were made much worse by two botched operations to treat bowel cancer in 1981. He did remain able to complete his last book, 'The Chariot of Israel', that year, and even up to 1984 he made occasional speeches in the House of Lords.

I have heard that in about 1985 he kept a large audience outside in the rain waiting while he attempted to remember a detail in a speech. Wilson in 1986 appeared as himself in a cameo role in an Anglia TV drama: video here.

It was after then that his personal appearances began to decline. His last Lords speech was on 25 June 1986, although for eight years after he still appeared in the House of Lords regularly. His Lords appearances were very regular until the end of April 1994 when they suddenly stop: 27 April 1994 was the last. (His last vote in a Division was on 24 March, helping to defeat the Major Government on the Police and Magistrates' Courts Bill).