2018 Review - Wales

[greenhert]

The 29 constituencies I mentioned earlier and their exact boundaries:

1. Monmouthshire. All of the Monmouthshire authority plus the Newport wards of Caerleon and Langstone and a small polling district in the Liswerry ward for electoral equality purposes.. Electorate: 78,500 approx.

2. Newport. The borough of Newport minus the aforementioned wards of Caerleon and Langstone and a small polling district in Liswerry (in Monmouthshire) and also minus the ward of Bettws, and most of Rogerstone (now in Pontypool). Electorate: 78,500 approx.

3. Pontypool: All of the borough of Torfaen plus the ward of Bettws and most polling districts of Rogerstone. Electorate: 78,500 approx.

4. Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney: As the current Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney constituency, but also plus the Caerphilly wards of Cefn Forest, Bargoed, Aberbargoed, Gilfach, St Cattwg, and Pengam, and the Rhonda Cynon Taff ward of Abercynon. Electorate: 76,396.

5. Blaenau Gwent and Blackwood. The entire district of Blaenau Gwent plus the Caerphilly wards of Blackwood, Pontllanfraith, Crumlin, Argoed, and Pennaen. Electorate: 71,702.

6. Caerphilly. The rest of the Caerphilly district including Caerphilly town itself. Electorate: 73,485.

7. Cardiff North West: The city of Cardiff wards of Rhwbina, Gabalfa, Heath, Llandaff North, Llandaff, Ely, Fairwater, Pentyrch, Whitchurch & Tongwynlais, Creigiau/St Fagans, and Radyr. Electorate: 78, 296.

8. Cardiff North East: The city of Cardiff wards of Lisavne, Llanishen, Pontprennau/Old St Mellons, Trowbridge, Cyncoed, Pentwyn, Llanrumney, Rumney and Penylan. Electorate: 74,801.

9. Cardiff South: The city of Cardiff wards of Adamsdown, Caerau, Cathays, Riverside, Splott, Plasnewydd, Canton, Butetown, and Grangetown. Electorate: 74,781.

10. Barry: All of the Vale of Glamorgan wards except for Llantwit Major, St. Bride's Major, Llandow/Ewenny, and Cowbridge. Electorate: 74,399.

11. Bridgend and Llantwit Vale: All of the Bridgend constituency as it stands plus the Vale of Glamorgan wards of Llantwit Major, St Bride's Major, Llandow/Ewenny, and Cowbridge. Electorate: 75,049.

12. Aberavon and Ogmore: The remainder of the Bridgend area (which Ogmore covers), plus the Neath Port Talbot wards of Baglan, Sandfields East, Sandfields West, Aberavon, Brym and Cwmavon, Port Talbot, Margam, and Tai-bach. Electorate: 77,186.

13. Neath. All the wards in Neath that are not in the Ogmore and Port Talbot constituency, plus the Rhondda Cynon Taff wards of Pen-y-waun, Rhigos, and Hirwaun with the northern polling districts of Treherbert ward. Electorate: 77,050 approx.

14. Pontypridd. All of existing constituency of Pontypridd plus also the Rhondda Cynon Taff wards of Brynna, Llanharry, Cymmer, Llanharan, Glyncoch, Gilfach Goch, and Clifynydd. Electorate: 75,692.

15. Rhondda and Aberdare. All wards of the Rhondda Cynon Taff area that are neither in Pontypridd nor attached to Neath (also the southern polling districts of Treherbert); these notably include the towns of Tonypandy and Aberdare. Electorate: 78,500 approx.

16. Abertawe. The Swansea wards of Uplands, Castle, Townhill, St Thomas, Landore, Bonymaen, Llansamlet, Mynyddbach, Morriston, Penderry, and Cwmbwrla. Centred on the city of Swansea itself. Electorate: 77,647.

17. Gower. All other wards of the Swansea area (centred on the Gower Peninsula) except for Mawr, Clydach, Pontardulais, and Llangyfelach which are moved to a redrawn Llanelli. Electorate: 73,926.

18. Llanelli. All of the existing constituency of Llanelli (entirely within Carmarthenshire, of course) plus the Gower wards of Mawr, Clydach, Pontardulais, and Llangyfelach. Electorate: 72,451.

19. Caerfyrddin. All of the constituency of Carmarthen East & Dinefwr plus the additional Carmarthenshire wards of Carmarthen Town North/South/West, Cynwyl Elfed,  Trelech, Llanboidy, and St Clears. Electorate: 71,419.

20. Pembroke and Laugharne. All of Pembrokeshire except for the wards moved to Ceredigion and Fishguard Coast (see below), and also the Carmarthenshire wards of Laugharne Township, Llansteffan and Whitland. Electorate: 71,774.

21. Ceredigion and Fishguard Coast: The entire county of Ceredigion plus the Pembrokeshire wards of Fishguard North East, Fishguard North West, Newport, St Dogmaels, Dinas Cross, Goodwick, Scleddau, St David's, Llanrhian, Solva, Letterston, Maenclochog, Crymych, Cilgerran, and Clydau. Electorate: 71,090.

22. Ynys Mon, Bangor a Llanwrst . Rather awkward seat, this one. It contains the entirety of Ynys Mon (known as the Isle of Anglesey in English) plus the Gwynedd wards of Menai, Hirael, Arllechwedd, Dewi, Glyder, Hendre, Marchog, Deiniol, and Garth (the city of Bangor), plus the Conwy wards of Bryn, Pandy, Pant-yr-Afon, Capelulo, Trefriw, Gower, Crwst, and Uwch Conwy. Electorate: 71,730.

23. Caernarfon a Meirionydd. All of Gwynedd that is not included in Ynys Mon ac Bangor, including the entirety of Meirionydd (Merionethshire) and the rest of Caernarfon (Caernarfonshire) Electorate: 71,092.

24. Conwy. All of the remaining wards in Conwy, including Conwy itself and the coastal towns of Llandudno and Colwyn. Electorate: 75,419.

25. Denbigh. Entirely coterminous with the Denbighshire authority area. Electorate: 74,069.

26. Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery. All of the county of Powys except for the wards of Welshpool Castle/Llanerchyddol/Gungrog, Llanfair Caereneion, Llanfihangel, Trewern, Meifod, Forden, Guilsfield, Banwy, Berriew, Llantsanffraid, Llandrion, Llandysilio, Llanrhaedr (both wards),Llanfyllin, and Rhiwcynon.  Electorate: 76,891.

27. Welshpool and Wrexham. The aforementioned wards in Montgomeryshire of Welshpool Castle/Llanerchyddol/Gungrog, Llanfair Caereneion, Llanfihangel, Trewern, Meifod, Forden, Guilsfield, Banwy, Berriew, Llantsanffraid, Llandrion, Llandysilio, Llanrhaedr (both wards),Llanfyllin, and Rhiwcynon plus the Wrexham wards of  Penycae and Ruabon South (Ruabon South), Marford and Hoseley, Gresford East and West, Holt, Borras Park, Acton, Little Acton, Rhosnesni, Garden Village, Stansty, Grosvenor,Maesydre, Wynnstay ,Cartrefle, Queensway, Whitegate,Smithfield,Brynyffynnon,Offa, Erddig, Hermitage, Overton, Bronington, Marchwiel, Plas Madoc, Cefn, Llangollen Rural, Chirk South, Chirk North, and Dyffryn Ceiriog/Ceiriog Valley. Electorate: 76,368.

28. East Flintshire. All Flintshire wards currently in the constituency of Alyn and Deeside minus the wards of Hope, Llanfynydd, Treuddyn, and Caergwrle. It gains the Flintshire wards of  Greenfield, Hollywell Central/East/West, Bagilt West/East, Flint Coleshill/Castle/Trelawny/Oakenholt, Northop Hall and Northop. Electorate: 76,769.

29. West Flintshire and Rhosllanerchagog Valley. All the Flintshire wards not included in East Flintshire plus the Wrexham wards of Llay, Rossett, Gwersullt West/North/East and South, Minera, Brymbo, Bryn Cefn, Gwenfro, Ponciau, Penycae, Penycae and Ruabon South (Groes), Rubon, Pant, Johnstown, Coedpoeth, Esclusham and New Broughton. Electorate: 77,598.

The constituencies which effectively 'disappear' in this shake up (by being substantially split between two or three new constituencies, as opposed to simply expanding or being absorbed) are Arfon, Clwyd South, Clwyd West, Cardiff Central, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, Islwyn, Montgomeryshire, Newport East, and Swansea West.

[Foggy]

At "78,500 approx", those first few seats are getting dangerously close to the threshold!

If you're going to give some seats Welsh names, you'd do well to go and read up on mutations first. Moreover, 'ac' is the proper way to say 'and' only before a vowel. Seat 22 should be 'Ynys Môn, Bangor a Llanwrst' and seat 23 ought to be called 'Caernarfon a Meirionydd'.

[Penddu]

I am in favour of vague geographical names rather than detailed lists of towns - So Ynys Mon etc could be simply called Menai. It stops a lot of bickering. (Go and ask someone from Maesteg how they felt when Ogwr was replaced by Bridgend....)

Historical names are also cool - so Wrexham and North Monty could be Powys Fadog, Glyndwr, or Berwyn (is that the right range?)

Llanelli and North Gower could by Lwchwr..

lots of possibilities using the Cantrefs...

[Harry Hayfield]

When I name constituencies, I always try and mention either the geographical area it covers (Denbighshire, Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire) or if it crosses counties a recognition of both (Anglesey and North West Gwynedd, Glan Conwy, Ceredigion Coast and Cambrian Mountains)

[Sibboleth]

The composition of the proposed Anglesey et al seat is even worse than the name, although I guess it works as an anti-Labour gerrymander if that's what you were aiming for. For boundary-review purposes you have to count Pentir ward as part of Bangor (because in functional terms it absolutely is) and to note that the Ogwen Valley (Bethesda, Tregarth etc) might as well be. And that even if it wasn't, you do know what's in between Bethesda and Llanberis, right? I don't mean to be rude, but maybe look at a map before doing the numbers?

[Sibboleth]

On a similar note anyone who thinks that a Wrexham/Montgomery combination makes any sense or is anything other than a 'worst possible' option a) needs their head examined and b) could also do with looking at a map. That they were once in the same Mediaeval brigand 'Kingdom' as each other is beyond irrelevant. The only connection they have to each other is via the fact that they both have connections with Shropshire.

[Sibboleth]

The obvious solution for Llanelli is to follow the logic of pre-1990s boundaries in the area. West Wales in general is going to be such an awful mess no matter what that there's no reason to put off this by consequences elsewhere.

[greenhert]

Mar 3, 2016 19:35:30 GMT Sibboleth said:

The composition of the proposed Anglesey et al seat is even worse than the name, although I guess it works as an anti-Labour gerrymander if that's what you were aiming for. For boundary-review purposes you have to count Pentir ward as part of Bangor (because in functional terms it absolutely is) and to note that the Ogwen Valley (Bethesda, Tregarth etc) might as well be. And that even if it wasn't, you do know what's in between Bethesda and Llanberis, right? I don't mean to be rude, but maybe look at a map before doing the numbers?

I was trying to preserve the integrity of Gwynedd, the most Welsh-speaking area of Wales, in constituency terms for socio-cultural reasons. Hence Caernarfon a Meirionydd.

Ynys Mon has to expand somewhere, and Ynys Mon a Bangor in of itself will not have enough electors to form a large enough constituency.

[Sibboleth]

Mar 3, 2016 21:20:35 GMT greenhert said:

I was trying to preserve the integrity of Gwynedd, the most Welsh-speaking area of Wales, in constituency terms for socio-cultural reasons. Hence Caernarfon a Meirionydd.

Why should that be an issue? Language issues are devolved and it isn't as though Welsh speakers have much difficulty being selected in and elected from constituencies that do not have a Welsh speaking majority. Culturally the different parts of Gwynedd have less in common than you'd think anyway, which is one reason why local politics there is so fycked up.

Ynys Mon has to expand somewhere, and Ynys Mon a Bangor in of itself will not have enough electors to form a large enough constituency.

And you make that much harder by separating Bangor and the Ogwen Valley when the latter has literally nowhere else it can sanely go (unless mountains no longer count as a barrier).

[Penddu]

In these boundary discussions there is always someone who tries to gerry mander things for party advantage, and the whole thing has to be depoliticised. It is not possible to restrict seats to county boundaries, whether current 22 counties, the 1974 counties, ceremonial counties or whatever.

The former county of Dyfed is a good example. You have to chop 0.16 of Pembrokeshire and the Preseli area is the logical choice to put with Ceredigion, but that combination is still too small and so the Teifi valley could be added to acheive 1 seat. The remaining Carmarthenshire is still too large by around 0.5 a seat and so Llanelli and Amman Valley is the logical choice to share a cross border seat with West Glamorgam
N.

The only other solution is to join Ceredigion with all of North Pembrokeshire, and South Pembrokeshire with a large part of West Carmarthenshire, but this still results in Llanelli area being moved out.

If instead you take the Dyfed West Glamorgan boundary as inviolate, and create three seats from Carmartheshire and Pembrokeshire, then you would need Ceredigion to join with a big chunk of South Powys, and end up crossing far more boundaries and geographical areas. You would only choose this for party political gain

[cibwr]

I would agree having tried using wards its almost impossible to stay strictly within quota, Assuming 5% difference permitted that gives you a range of 71474 to 790191. For me the obvious community ties in the Gwent and Glamorgan Valleys run north south so combinations like Aberdare and Rhondda don't work. Id rather try to split Taff Ely, creating a Aberdare and Pontypridd seat and Rhondda and Ely Valley seat. Cardiff does not split neatly into 3 seats quotas. You can make a coherent seat out of Barry and Penarth and the Eastern Vale (maybe with the more rural parts of Western Cardiff) Its going to be a real mess.

The less said about West Glamorgan the better.... if we are to combine bits then Western Taff Ely and Bridgend with the Western Vale are a match.

As for West Wales, Llanelli and part of the former Llew Valley makes some sense, as does Ceredigion and North Pembroke with Teifiside... Pembroke and Whitland and a rump Carmarthenshire as two seats, maybe with the eastern most part of Carmarthenshire going into a Southern Powys seat.

I don't see a way out of combining North Easter Montgomery with parts of Wrexham (Llangollen) and most of Denbighshire (minus Denbigh). Conwy costal is fairly obvious, as are two seats based on Flintshire and Northern Denbighshire and third seat with a rump Wrexham. Ynys Mon plus Bangor and hinterland, Rest of Gwynedd plus Machynlleth and hinterland. Leaving a rump Powys as one seat.

[Crimson King]

What's Welsh for 'all the rest' or 'leftover bit' - that would probably be a reasonably mellifluous, and accurate constituency name

[greenhert]

Mar 3, 2016 0:32:57 GMT greenhert said:

The 29 constituencies I mentioned earlier and their exact boundaries:

1. Monmouthshire. All of the Monmouthshire authority plus the Newport wards of Caerleon and Langstone and a small polling district in the Liswerry ward for electoral equality purposes.. Electorate: 78,500 approx.

2. Newport. The borough of Newport minus the aforementioned wards of Caerleon and Langstone and a small polling district in Liswerry (in Monmouthshire) and also minus the ward of Bettws, and most of Rogerstone (now in Pontypool). Electorate: 78,500 approx.

3. Pontypool: All of the borough of Torfaen plus the ward of Bettws and most polling districts of Rogerstone. Electorate: 78,500 approx.

4. Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney: As the current Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney constituency, but also plus the Caerphilly wards of Cefn Forest, Bargoed, Aberbargoed, Gilfach, St Cattwg, and Pengam, and the Rhonda Cynon Taff ward of Abercynon. Electorate: 76,396.

5. Blaenau Gwent and Blackwood. The entire district of Blaenau Gwent plus the Caerphilly wards of Blackwood, Pontllanfraith, Crumlin, Argoed, and Pennaen. Electorate: 71,702.

6. Caerphilly. The rest of the Caerphilly district including Caerphilly town itself. Electorate: 73,485.

7. Cardiff North West: The city of Cardiff wards of Rhwbina, Gabalfa, Heath, Llandaff North, Llandaff, Ely, Fairwater, Pentyrch, Whitchurch & Tongwynlais, Creigiau/St Fagans, and Radyr. Electorate: 78, 296.

8. Cardiff North East: The city of Cardiff wards of Lisavne, Llanishen, Pontprennau/Old St Mellons, Trowbridge, Cyncoed, Pentwyn, Llanrumney, Rumney and Penylan. Electorate: 74,801.

9. Cardiff South: The city of Cardiff wards of Adamsdown, Caerau, Cathays, Riverside, Splott, Plasnewydd, Canton, Butetown, and Grangetown. Electorate: 74,781.

10. Barry: All of the Vale of Glamorgan wards except for Llantwit Major, St. Bride's Major, Llandow/Ewenny, and Cowbridge. Electorate: 74,399.

11. Bridgend and Llantwit Vale: All of the Bridgend constituency as it stands plus the Vale of Glamorgan wards of Llantwit Major, St Bride's Major, Llandow/Ewenny, and Cowbridge. Electorate: 75,049.

12. Aberavon and Ogmore: The remainder of the Bridgend area (which Ogmore covers), plus the Neath Port Talbot wards of Baglan, Sandfields East, Sandfields West, Aberavon, Brym and Cwmavon, Port Talbot, Margam, and Tai-bach. Electorate: 77,186.

13. Neath. All the wards in Neath that are not in the Ogmore and Port Talbot constituency, plus the Rhondda Cynon Taff wards of Pen-y-waun, Rhigos, and Hirwaun with the northern polling districts of Treherbert ward. Electorate: 77,050 approx.

14. Pontypridd. All of existing constituency of Pontypridd plus also the Rhondda Cynon Taff wards of Brynna, Llanharry, Cymmer, Llanharan, Glyncoch, Gilfach Goch, and Clifynydd. Electorate: 75,692.

15. Rhondda and Aberdare. All wards of the Rhondda Cynon Taff area that are neither in Pontypridd nor attached to Neath (also the southern polling districts of Treherbert); these notably include the towns of Tonypandy and Aberdare. Electorate: 78,500 approx.

16. Abertawe. The Swansea wards of Uplands, Castle, Townhill, St Thomas, Landore, Bonymaen, Llansamlet, Mynyddbach, Morriston, Penderry, and Cwmbwrla. Centred on the city of Swansea itself. Electorate: 77,647.

17. Gower. All other wards of the Swansea area (centred on the Gower Peninsula) except for Mawr, Clydach, Pontardulais, and Llangyfelach which are moved to a redrawn Llanelli. Electorate: 73,926.

18. Llanelli. All of the existing constituency of Llanelli (entirely within Carmarthenshire, of course) plus the Gower wards of Mawr, Clydach, Pontardulais, and Llangyfelach. Electorate: 72,451.

19. Caerfyrddin. All of the constituency of Carmarthen East & Dinefwr plus the additional Carmarthenshire wards of Carmarthen Town North/South/West, Cynwyl Elfed,  Trelech, Llanboidy, and St Clears. Electorate: 71,419.

20. Pembroke and Laugharne. All of Pembrokeshire except for the wards moved to Ceredigion and Fishguard Coast (see below), and also the Carmarthenshire wards of Laugharne Township, Llansteffan and Whitland. Electorate: 71,774.

21. Ceredigion and Fishguard Coast: The entire county of Ceredigion plus the Pembrokeshire wards of Fishguard North East, Fishguard North West, Newport, St Dogmaels, Dinas Cross, Goodwick, Scleddau, St David's, Llanrhian, Solva, Letterston, Maenclochog, Crymych, Cilgerran, and Clydau. Electorate: 71,090.

22. Ynys Mon, Bangor a Llanwrst . Rather awkward seat, this one. It contains the entirety of Ynys Mon (known as the Isle of Anglesey in English) plus the Gwynedd wards of Menai, Hirael, Arllechwedd, Dewi, Glyder, Hendre, Marchog, Deiniol, and Garth (the city of Bangor), plus the Conwy wards of Bryn, Pandy, Pant-yr-Afon, Capelulo, Trefriw, Gower, Crwst, and Uwch Conwy. Electorate: 71,730.

23. Caernarfon a Meirionydd. All of Gwynedd that is not included in Ynys Mon ac Bangor, including the entirety of Meirionydd (Merionethshire) and the rest of Caernarfon (Caernarfonshire) Electorate: 71,092.

24. Conwy. All of the remaining wards in Conwy, including Conwy itself and the coastal towns of Llandudno and Colwyn. Electorate: 75,419.

25. Denbigh. Entirely coterminous with the Denbighshire authority area. Electorate: 74,069.

26. Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery. All of the county of Powys except for the wards of Welshpool Castle/Llanerchyddol/Gungrog, Llanfair Caereneion, Llanfihangel, Trewern, Meifod, Forden, Guilsfield, Banwy, Berriew, Llantsanffraid, Llandrion, Llandysilio, Llanrhaedr (both wards),Llanfyllin, and Rhiwcynon.  Electorate: 76,891.

27. Welshpool and Wrexham. The aforementioned wards in Montgomeryshire of Welshpool Castle/Llanerchyddol/Gungrog, Llanfair Caereneion, Llanfihangel, Trewern, Meifod, Forden, Guilsfield, Banwy, Berriew, Llantsanffraid, Llandrion, Llandysilio, Llanrhaedr (both wards),Llanfyllin, and Rhiwcynon plus the Wrexham wards of  Penycae and Ruabon South (Ruabon South), Marford and Hoseley, Gresford East and West, Holt, Borras Park, Acton, Little Acton, Rhosnesni, Garden Village, Stansty, Grosvenor,Maesydre, Wynnstay ,Cartrefle, Queensway, Whitegate,Smithfield,Brynyffynnon,Offa, Erddig, Hermitage, Overton, Bronington, Marchwiel, Plas Madoc, Cefn, Llangollen Rural, Chirk South, Chirk North, and Dyffryn Ceiriog/Ceiriog Valley. Electorate: 76,368.

28. East Flintshire. All Flintshire wards currently in the constituency of Alyn and Deeside minus the wards of Hope, Llanfynydd, Treuddyn, and Caergwrle. It gains the Flintshire wards of  Greenfield, Hollywell Central/East/West, Bagilt West/East, Flint Coleshill/Castle/Trelawny/Oakenholt, Northop Hall and Northop. Electorate: 76,769.

29. West Flintshire and Rhosllanerchagog Valley. All the Flintshire wards not included in East Flintshire plus the Wrexham wards of Llay, Rossett, Gwersullt West/North/East and South, Minera, Brymbo, Bryn Cefn, Gwenfro, Ponciau, Penycae, Penycae and Ruabon South (Groes), Rubon, Pant, Johnstown, Coedpoeth, Esclusham and New Broughton. Electorate: 77,598.

The constituencies which effectively 'disappear' in this shake up (by being substantially split between two or three new constituencies, as opposed to simply expanding or being absorbed) are Arfon, Clwyd South, Clwyd West, Cardiff South & Penarth, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, Cynon Valley, Islwyn, Montgomeryshire, Newport East, and Swansea West.

I furthermore believe that notionally (in political terms) these 29 seats will be as follows based on 2015 results in the existing Welsh seats:

1. Monmouthshire: Safe Conservative seat.

2. Newport: Semi-marginal Labour seat.

3. Pontypool: Very safe Labour seat.

4. Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney: Ultra-safe Labour seat.

5. Blaenau Gwent & Blackwood:  Ultra-safe Labour seat (discounting Blaenau Gwent People's Voice's brief tenure in the existing seat of Blaenau Gwent)

6. Caerphilly: Very safe Labour seat.

7. Cardiff North West: Marginal Conservative seat.

8. Cardiff North East: Semi-marginal Labour seat.

9. Cardiff South: Very safe Labour seat.

10. Barry: Marginal Conservative seat.

11. Bridgend & Llantwit Vale: Marginal Labour seat.

12. Aberavon & Ogmore: Ultra-safe Labour seat.

13. Neath: Very safe Labour seat.

14. Pontypridd: Very safe Labour seat.

15. Rhondda & Aberdare: Very safe Labour seat.

16. Abertawe: Safe Labour seat.

17. Gower: Marginal Labour seat (it has taken in parts of the old Swansea West meaning that it will be no longer notionally Conservative).

18. Llanelli: Safe Labour seat.

19. Caerfyrddin: Marginal Plaid Cymru seat.

20. Pembroke & Laugharne: Semi-marginal Conservative seat.

21. Ceredigion & Fishguard: Marginal Liberal Democrat seat.

22. Ynys Mon a Bangor*: Marginal Plaid Cymru seat.

23. Caernarfon, Meirionydd a Llanwrst*: Very safe Plaid Cymru seat.

24. Conwy:  Safe Conservative seat.

25. Denbigh: Marginal Conservative seat.

26. Brecon, Radnor, & Montgomery: Marginal Conservative seat (over Liberal Democrats).

27. Welshpool & Wrexham: Marginal Conservative seat (?)

28. East Flintshire: Marginal Labour seat.

29. West Flintshire & Rhosllancheragog Valley: Semi-marginal Labour seat.

*Seat titles changed due to practical issues with original hypothetical constituency boundaries of Ynys Mon, Bangor a Llanwrst and Caernarfon a Meirionydd.

Notional changes from 2015 on these hypothetical boundaries of mine (reduction in total seats available also accounted for): Labour 17 (-8), Conservative 8 (-3), Plaid Cymru 3 (nc), Liberal Democrats 1 (nc).

[afleitch]

Random stab at south Wales

[Harry Hayfield]

29 Welsh constituencies of which every single one is quorate

[gwynthegriff]

Feb 24, 2016 22:18:16 GMT @jamesdowden said:

Feb 24, 2016 21:45:34 GMT greenhert said:

and theoretically Powys and Ceredigion could be paired together...

No, they can't, because then you find that North Wales adds up to the number of constituencies of the beast (6.66). What would really help both the Welsh and West Midland reviews would be for Wales to take over Oswestry.

"Opikland & Croesoswallt"

[Sibboleth]

Splitting Blaenau Gwent isn't particularly objectionable - although you might want to split it slightly differently - as it isn't a 'natural' unit and as the eastern third of it was in a different parliamentary constituency before 1983.

[gwynthegriff]

Mar 4, 2016 18:23:40 GMT @jamesdowden said:

Mar 4, 2016 14:54:04 GMT Crimson King said:

What's Welsh for 'all the rest' or 'leftover bit' - that would probably be a reasonably mellifluous, and accurate constituency name

Y gweddill. Often in the plural, gweddillion.

And the possibility of "a recount in Gweddillion" would be another reason for Huw Edwards to replace Dimbleby on election night.

Win, win.

[YL]

I thought I would see what happened if I tried to avoid north-eastern Montgomeryshire going either with Gwynedd or with south Denbighshire in an "Oswestry Outer" arrangement. This requires seven rather small seats in North Wales, which in turn causes some restrictions further south as well, so there are a few uglinesses here, and no doubt a few things which could be improved.

North first:


Ynys Môn a Bangor 72,338 - not sure about the southern border here

Eryri 71,558 - still includes Machynlleth from Powys, pace Harry Hayfield : the numbers in the North are ridiculously tight if you exclude it; no doubt it can be done, but it might involve a split ward or something silly somewhere.

Conwy Coast 71,922

Denbigh 73,953 - yes this is a bit ugly

West Flintshire 72,394 - includes Rhyl and Prestatyn

East Flintshire 71,387

Wrexham 71,501

Montgomery, Radnor & Builth 71,708 - could take Machynlleth without changing anything further south

Now the rest:


Ceredigion a Phreseli 77,304

Pembroke & Laugharne 77,315

Llanelli & Carmarthen (or "a Chaerfyrddin" if you prefer) 71,096

Mynydd Du 76,889 - contains parts of Carmarthenshire, Powys and Neath Port Talbot.

Monmouth 74,532

Torfaen 78,306

Newport 77,790

Blaenau Gwent 77,577

Caerphilly 76,977 - not sure about some of the boundaries in this area

Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 76,624 - yes, the reach around to include Hirwaun looks a bit ugly

Pontypridd & Aberdare 77,154

Rhondda 77,371

Cardiff North 78,187

Cardiff West 75,563

Cardiff South East 74,128

Barry & Penarth 76,984

Bridgend 78,035

Ogmore & Aberavon 74,419

Neath & Pontardawe 77,940

Swansea Central 77,533

Swansea Gower 73,356

[Harry Hayfield]

The reason why I like to keep Machynlleth in Powys YL is because when they tried to move it into Gwynedd last time the reaction could be summarised in one word "NEVER!" as this letter from Machynlleth Town Council proves during the last review gov.wales/docs/bcw/publications/database/0479MachynllethTownCouncil.pdf