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Post by Penddu on Feb 29, 2016 9:16:49 GMT
Although the border was effectively fixed in 1536 it was changed in 1972 albeit only minor changes by removing some of the exclaves and enclaves in the Wye Valley. I would not be averse to a modest tidying up excercise to remove some of the remaining absurdities, providing that: (1) the overall change is largely neutral in terms of land area and population (2) the affected populations vote in local referendum I am not convinced about moving Oswestry into Wales and I would remove any discussion about Monmouthshire! Looks like i got the date a little bit wrong - -it was 1844 not 1972....but the principle is tge same. |
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ian48
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Post by ian48 on Feb 29, 2016 9:33:55 GMT
the rest of Gwynedd goes with the rest of Conwy to make something like Conwy South and Gwynedd, or Snowdonia and Llyn, or whatever. Dwyfor Meirionnydd Nant Conwy? Penddu - when you say the coast up to Conwy is that inclusive of Conwy Town or, similar to the Zombie proposals, Llanfairfechan and Penmaenmawr up to the boundary with Conwy Town. Harry Hayfield - referring to your proposals earlier, I appreciate you feeling that Denbighshire makes a well-sized population unit, but I think that scenario should be discounted as it causes too many problems. Some kind of Denbigh and North Montgomeryshire seat is needed and sticking rigidly to the boundaries of Denbighshire just causes weird outcomes, such as that seat you produce which appears to be Wrexham and Montgomery panhandle. |
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ian48
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Post by ian48 on Feb 29, 2016 9:44:38 GMT
Anglesey, Gwynedd and Conwy seem to make a workable group with three seats, average 72,746, with Ynys Mon y something, the Conwy coast and Gwynedd and Conwy Rural being (to me at least) obvious choices. Some sort of Welsh border region taking in Denbigh, Flint, Wrexham, Powys, Monmouthshire gives six seats, average 75069. Monmouthshire gains a few wards from south Breconshire, BR&M moves accordingly slightly northward, three seats can be made along the north-east but with this configuration it's tough to avoid an ugly seat like Denbigh and North Montgomeryshire, maybe with a few bits of Wrexham thrown in for good measure. Though ridiculous rural seats are essentially unavoidable in North Wales. To wit:  Not being a Welshman, some of these seats may be utterly illogical - feel free to rebuke. (I did this using the old figures for swiftness, though based on the new ones, this general configuration should be OK as long as a few wards are shifted.) Monmouth expands northward, taking in two wards from South Powys. Accordingly, Brecon, Radnorshire and Montgomery shifts up a little also. We then have the fairly strange Denbigh and North Montgomeryshire running all the way up to St Asaph, and taking in a good slice of SW Wrexham (since taking in the panhandle is unavoidable anyway, in for a penny, in for a pound). The rest of Wrexham then forms a seat (I tried D&NM taking in only the southern rural areas of Wrexham, but it ended up looking so ridiculous I gave it up). Alyn and Deeside and Flint and North Denbighshire then divide quite naturally. These six seats have average 75069 on the new figures. The utterly ugly Conwy Coastal might be a bit tight to get working, but it has some sort of vague semblance of logic, I think. Ynys Mon y Bangor's precise wards can be adjusted to taste, and the rest of Gwynedd goes with the rest of Conwy to make something like Conwy South and Gwynedd, or Snowdonia and Llyn, or whatever. These have average 72746 on the new data so may be a little tight in places. I then lumped in Ceredigion with North Pembrokeshire, but I haven't really got much further than that. (Since Ceredigion + Pembrokeshire gives an average 68747 this won't be able to work out very nicely.) I think this looks a really good stab, though I would shift a few seats around. in the middle. Llanfairfechan (Bryn and Pandy/Lafan wards) and maybe Penmaenmawr (Pant yr Afon and Capelulo wards) of Conwy County Borough should go to Bangor and Ynys Mon as they look to Bangor for most things and are quite a natural cultural fit. In compensation, I would do my utmost to ensure the Caerhun and Betws yn Rhos wards are included in the North Wales coastal seat (Caerhun especially as its northern area are suburban residential areas of Conwy town, similarly B-y-Rh has a number of essentially suburban areas of Colwyn Bay within it. |
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ian48
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Post by ian48 on Feb 29, 2016 9:45:37 GMT
Also Llansannan should really be with the Denbigh seat if at all possible.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 29, 2016 10:24:46 GMT
Llanfairfechan and Penmaenmawr are historically quarrying towns and so, yes, make more sense in a Bangor et al seat than a Llandudno et al one if this is possible.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 29, 2016 10:33:59 GMT
Anyway, fwiw locally the border functions as much as a stock-joke as anything else.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 29, 2016 10:36:31 GMT
Up to the nineteenth century, Welsh was spoken over large parts of Shropshire, as far as the walls of Chester. Certain words are still widely spoken; cwtch for instance. Not that everyone who uses it realises that it is a Welsh word  |
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Post by Penddu on Mar 1, 2016 6:14:00 GMT
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Nant Conwy? Penddu - when you say the coast up to Conwy is that inclusive of Conwy Town or, similar to the Zombie proposals, Llanfairfechan and Penmaenmawr up to the boundary with Conwy Town. Harry Hayfield - referring to your proposals earlier, I appreciate you feeling that Denbighshire makes a well-sized population unit, but I think that scenario should be discounted as it causes too many problems. Some kind of Denbigh and North Montgomeryshire seat is needed and sticking rigidly to the boundaries of Denbighshire just causes weird outcomes, such as that seat you produce which appears to be Wrexham and Montgomery panhandle. I included Conwy town, but there are a few other ways to balance the seats. The important thing is that Conwy, Gwynedd and Ynys Mon together make 3 neat seats without too much effort. I agree with you about Denbighsire. There has to be a seat shared with Powys, and it is probably easier to do this with rural Denbighsire than with urban Wrexham. I suggest the name Powys Fadog.....although strictly speaking a Wrexham based seat could also claim that title. |
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Post by Penddu on Mar 1, 2016 6:18:42 GMT
I came up with a Flintshire North and Denbighshire North seat and thought it could be named Scouseland..
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cibwr
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Post by cibwr on Mar 1, 2016 10:18:59 GMT
There's an amount of this being deliberate. Remember that Owain Glyndŵr was from Powys Fadog. So it's not a coincidence that a century later Henry VIII distributed Powys Fadog between Denbighshire, Flintshire, Merionethshire, and Shropshire. Oswestry is an absurd 16th century gerrymander that deserves to be put out of its misery. There are smaller bits of dog-in-manger county boundary going on: Chirbury/Llanffynhonwen is absurd, even if virtually no-one lives there; the Presteigne area is just a mess; Ewias is mainly harmless, but Cusop parish is ridiculous on the ground (it's blatantly part of Hay; it's even got a Co-op with bilingual signage); and the eastern half of the former Lordship of Chepstow ended up in Gloucestershire. I would happily wave bye-bye to those western suburbs of Chester that if it meant that Henry VIII's gerrymander got undone along the rest of the border. That sort of thing isn't solely an issue in Wales. When the Midlands was shired, there seem to have been some deliberate efforts made to divide as many local powerbases as possible, to prevent anybody getting any ideas about the good old days of Mercia. Warwickshire would have had much more sensible boundaries if there hadn't been good reasons to split Tamworth down the middle back in the tenth century. Ah good old Eathelflaed en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%86thelfl%C3%A6d |
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cibwr
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Post by cibwr on Mar 1, 2016 10:21:53 GMT
Up to the nineteenth century, Welsh was spoken over large parts of Shropshire, as far as the walls of Chester. Certain words are still widely spoken; cwtch for instance. Not that everyone who uses it realises that it is a Welsh word Via French |
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Post by lennon on Mar 1, 2016 13:11:11 GMT
But it's not as simply as straight notionals, as presumably the Plaid vote in Montgomeryshire isn't exactly evenly distributed? Without looking at local results I would imagine that they are much stronger in Machynlleth and Llandidloes than they are in Montgomery and Welshpool.
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ian48
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Post by ian48 on Mar 1, 2016 13:43:19 GMT
Penddu - when you say the coast up to Conwy is that inclusive of Conwy Town or, similar to the Zombie proposals, Llanfairfechan and Penmaenmawr up to the boundary with Conwy Town. Harry Hayfield - referring to your proposals earlier, I appreciate you feeling that Denbighshire makes a well-sized population unit, but I think that scenario should be discounted as it causes too many problems. Some kind of Denbigh and North Montgomeryshire seat is needed and sticking rigidly to the boundaries of Denbighshire just causes weird outcomes, such as that seat you produce which appears to be Wrexham and Montgomery panhandle. I included Conwy town, but there are a few other ways to balance the seats. The important thing is that Conwy, Gwynedd and Ynys Mon together make 3 neat seats without too much effort. I agree with you about Denbighsire. There has to be a seat shared with Powys, and it is probably easier to do this with rural Denbighsire than with urban Wrexham. I suggest the name Powys Fadog.....although strictly speaking a Wrexham based seat could also claim that title. OK, however just to clarify, do you mean Conwy Town as in the area covered by Conwy Town Council (i.e. including Llandudno Junction and Deganwy) or just the area west of the River Conwy (i.e. what most people would simply call Conwy)? Whichever it is, I would imagine there would be massive pressure from people in Conwy not to join Bangor and Ynys Mon. Any boundary should really stop at Penmaenbach mountain between Conwy and Capelulo. Otherwise, you'd have to split the area of the town of Conwy on the West bank from areas under its control on the East (Deganwy and Llandudno Junction). If the whole of Conwy Town Council's area went to B & Y M then areas such as Llanrhos and Deganwy, which are basically suburbs of Llandudno (and indeed the whole of the former and a proportion of the latter were part of Llandudno until 1987 and postally still are)would be cut off from their natural area. Conwy, Llandudno and Colwyn Bay are effectively one urban area these days with a combined population of approaching 70,000 and should really be united in one seat, which up til now has not been the case for all three. It pretty much cries out for it. |
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Post by Penddu on Mar 1, 2016 21:56:02 GMT
Whichever way you divide the north, you still have to transfer around 0.5 of a seat from Powys. The only question is whether it should connect with the North East or North West (or both).
But using the ceremonial counties as a basis for where to draw boundaries is as nonsensical as using Bishoprics or Postal Codes.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 2, 2016 14:32:53 GMT
Well the southern half of Meirionnydd is pretty alike to Mid Wales isn't it.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Mar 2, 2016 17:27:47 GMT
Let's have another pretty maps moment. The principal areas of Wales (and area committee subdivisions in the cases of Gwynedd and Powys) with their numbers of electors:  To which the obvious question has to be "And pray tell, where did that map come from, sir?" |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 2, 2016 18:20:22 GMT
From this map, we could create:
1. Group Monmouthshire, Torfaen & Newport together (they are all in Gwent, anyway) since 3.14 quotas just about fits into 3 seats. I suggest Monmouthshire, Newport, and Pontypool.
2. Group Caerphilly, Merthyr Tydfil, and Caerphilly (also entirely in Gwent) together, with a total of 2.90 quotas for 3 seats. My suggestions are Merthyr Tydfil & Tredegar, Blaenau Gwent & Islwyn, and Caerphilly.
3. Cardiff gets 3 seats, my suggestions for constituencies are Cardiff North West, Cardiff North East, and Cardiff South.
4. Neath Port Talbot, Bridgend, Rhondda Cynon Taf, and the Vale of Glamorgan need to be grouped as one for 6.19 quotas. By the way, Penarth & Barry can simply be named 'Barry' since Penarth was part of the old Barry constituency until 1983. The other seats can be Bridgend, Aberavon, and Neath Valley. Cynon Valley can merge with part of Rhondda to become Aberdare and Tonypandy, and Pontypridd can expand.
5. Swansea and Carmarthenshire. Rather awkward since I want to avoid pairing Glamorgan with Dyfed, but the rules that tie the boundary commission make this unavoidable without messing up another area psephologically. Swansea West and Swansea East can simply merge their urban parts to become Abertawe. Gower is expanded slightly, and the remainder of Swansea borough joins Llanelli to become Llanelli and Swansea Valley. Carmarthen Town and some villages are then reunited with Carmarthern East & Dinefwr to simply become Caerfyrddin. Most of Pembrokeshire simply becomes Pembroke and Laugharne, with Fishguard becoming Ceredigion ac Fishguard. This just about fits into six seats.
6. Denbighshire can be kept united if the rural southern parts of Wrexham are combined with northern Montgomeryshire to form Welshpool and Wrexham South, with the rest of Powys simply becoming Brecon, Radnor & Montgomery. Meanwhile, you could create West Flintshire and also East Flintshire & Wrexham East, with the remainder becoming Wrexham Maelor. Finally, Gwynedd could be kept as intact as possible (I consider this important due to the particularly high number of Welsh speakers in that area, for a start) if Ynys Mon goes eastwards to become Ynys Mon, Bangor ac Llandudno, the rest of Gwynedd merges to become Caernarfon ac Meirionydd, and the rest of Conwy borough simply becomes Conwy (not Aberconwy, by the way).
I will come to giving exact boundaries and definitions for these 29 seats as soon as possible.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 2, 2016 19:09:43 GMT
Wrexham is in Denbighshire. If you mean the local authority area, why bother to 'preserve' it? Its boundaries are terrible and not suitable for electoral purposes.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Mar 2, 2016 22:24:16 GMT
Great effort from greenhert as far as the boundaries go, but I don't even know where to start with some of the nomenclature! The map that Mr Dowden found states that Monmouthshire is worth 1.91 quotas for a seat, when in fact from the electorate figure it should obviously read 0.91 quotas. Whoever made it – whether it was that Wikimedia user or someone working for the Ordnance Survey (the latter feels unlikely) – must have been working north-west to south-east and got bored or lost concentration at the end. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 3, 2016 0:10:05 GMT
Very much the latter.
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