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Post by greenhert on Sept 10, 2018 20:49:11 GMT
I think more protections for certain areas of Wales (e.g. Powys, which cannot really connect north or south in terms of effective representation) should have been applied given the mess Wales' parliamentary representation will now be in.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 11, 2018 16:15:24 GMT
I hope these boundaries do pass if only because if they do, Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North and Carmarthen will be two of the most contested seats in the whole country. Based on the same method as Electoral Calculus I have Carmarthen being a three way marginal (Lab 13,956 Con 13,566 Plaid 12,347) and Ceredigion as a Conservative (yes, that's right, I said Conservative) defence (Con 10,033 Lab 9,940 Plaid 9,806 Lib Dem 8,872) meaning that it would be up there on the first row of every Conservative defence election graphic on election night (making the most appearances on election night ever)
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Post by justin124 on Sept 11, 2018 16:23:36 GMT
I hope these boundaries do pass if only because if they do, Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North and Carmarthen will be two of the most contested seats in the whole country. Based on the same method as Electoral Calculus I have Carmarthen being a three way marginal (Lab 13,956 Con 13,566 Plaid 12,347) and Ceredigion as a Conservative (yes, that's right, I said Conservative) defence (Con 10,033 Lab 9,940 Plaid 9,806 Lib Dem 8,872) meaning that it would be up there on the first row of every Conservative defence election graphic on election night (making the most appearances on election night ever) Unlikely that the Tories would actually win Ceredigion.Tactical voting for one of the other parties will keep them out I suspect. |
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on Sept 23, 2018 11:49:28 GMT
I hope these boundaries do pass if only because if they do, Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North and Carmarthen will be two of the most contested seats in the whole country. Based on the same method as Electoral Calculus I have Carmarthen being a three way marginal (Lab 13,956 Con 13,566 Plaid 12,347) and Ceredigion as a Conservative (yes, that's right, I said Conservative) defence (Con 10,033 Lab 9,940 Plaid 9,806 Lib Dem 8,872) meaning that it would be up there on the first row of every Conservative defence election graphic on election night (making the most appearances on election night ever) Unlikely that the Tories would actually win Ceredigion.Tactical voting for one of the other parties will keep them out I suspect.
This begs the question - are there any sets of 'notional' results that actually factor in the likelihood of tactical voting, or indeed pre-apply tactical unwind where it would no longer likely take place?
I wonder what proportion of voters anywhere cast their vote on the basis of the previous elections notional result. Given that the number who actively consider the previous elections actual result is surprisingly low, it can't be very many.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 23, 2018 11:58:05 GMT
It would only have begged the question if the estimate had already assumed there would be tactical voting and estimated the precise amount of it.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,069
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Post by jamie on Sept 23, 2018 12:36:32 GMT
I wonder what proportion of voters anywhere cast their vote on the basis of the previous elections notional result. Given that the number who actively consider the previous elections actual result is surprisingly low, it can't be very many.
There's also the parties campaigning based upon past results + generally actually bothering in seats where they can win. I imagine the Lib Dem vote might be a bit higher in north Pembrokeshire should the boundaries go through. |
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Post by justin124 on Sept 25, 2018 19:52:48 GMT
I wonder what proportion of voters anywhere cast their vote on the basis of the previous elections notional result. Given that the number who actively consider the previous elections actual result is surprisingly low, it can't be very many.
There's also the parties campaigning based upon past results + generally actually bothering in seats where they can win. I imagine the Lib Dem vote might be a bit higher in north Pembrokeshire should the boundaries go through. Maybe so. It would not be an easy call with all four parties in with a shout there! My gut feeling - having grown up in Pembrokeshire - is that a Tory gain is the least likely. I could well see the LibDems or Plaid win here. Labour also held Cardigan from 1966 - 1974 and could well be very competitive on such boundaries . |
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