YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Mar 19, 2016 8:52:13 GMT
What did they mean by "the idea of grouping Glantwymyn, Machynlleth and Llanbrynmair together was recognised as a possible solution with Montgomeryshire being included as part of the new constituency name"? (My map above does group those three wards together.) Is their main objection actually to the Montgomeryshire component not being recognised in the name? Anyway, if Machynlleth is out, then: - move everything I put in YMaB from Bethel and Penisarwaun southwards (but not Y Felinheli) into Eryri; - move Llanfairfechan and Penmaenmawr (four wards) from Conwy Coast to YMaB; - compensate Conwy Coast with the two easternmost wards which I had put into Denbigh; - add three eastern inland Conwy wards to Denbigh (Llansannan, Llangernyw, Uwchaled); - swap Caerhun and Eglwysbach between Conwy Coast and Eryri to make the numbers work. That gives YMaB 71,398 Eryri 71,324 Conwy Coast 71,776 Denbigh 71,346 which, together with West Flintshire, East Flintshire and Wrexham as before, squeezes 7 seats out of the "preserved counties" of Gywnedd and Clwyd. Adding Machynlleth (and the other two wards mentioned) to Montgomery, Radnor & Builth brings it up to 75,635. |
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Post by pembspolitic on Mar 19, 2016 13:28:21 GMT
29 Welsh constituencies of which every single one is quorate  The ceredigion seat look a bit of a mess - adding Llanidloes and Builth Wells just doesn't make sense to me. I would Create a Ceredigion Seat which Includes the Teifi Valley and the Preseli area - Most West Point being Scleddau - which would give you an eectorate of 73,808. The rest of Pembrokeshire would then fall neatly into71,822 without needing to add Whitland. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 19, 2016 14:46:22 GMT
Trouble is every town says NEVER and the new rules don't allow that.
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Post by afleitch on Mar 19, 2016 19:13:51 GMT
If anything, I think there's a disservice to the rest of Wales if the starting point is 'getting the Valley's right.' Rural Wales and Welsh speaking Wales need to be seats that are far more reflective of geography and language.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 19, 2016 19:20:33 GMT
The issue is that it might be possible to get The Valleys right, but with the new rules it will be impossible for rural areas to be anything other than a complete mess. It was hard enough under the existing rules and the increased frowning on blatant malapportionment. But I think the main thing people should keep in mind regarding Wales is that mountains are more real than boundaries incompetently drawn up by pissed bureaucrats in the early 90s and more relevant than the theoretical boundary of this or that short-lived kingdom of the early Middle Ages.
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Post by afleitch on Mar 19, 2016 19:43:18 GMT
The issue is that it might be possible to get The Valleys right, but with the new rules it will be impossible for rural areas to be anything other than a complete mess. It was hard enough under the existing rules and the increased frowning on blatant malapportionment. But I think the main thing people should keep in mind regarding Wales is that mountains are more real than boundaries incompetently drawn up by pissed bureaucrats in the early 90s and more relevant than the theoretical boundary of this or that short-lived kingdom of the early Middle Ages. True but we aren't dealing with the Alps here. It's important to get a semblance of sanity in North Wales, west Wales and Powys (less say the Brecons which bleed into the valley heads anyway) more than ensuring a pit village isn't split. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 19, 2016 19:57:12 GMT
True but we aren't dealing with the Alps here. But on those grounds why even bother paying any attention to any local considerations whatsoever? Just draw random shapes with the correct number of electors and give each a number rather than a name. Of course that is the logical end result of the new rules, but its also what literally no one really wants... Anyway the worst examples of WHY ARE YOU IGNORING BASIC GEOGRAPHY in that sense in this thread have come for proposals in North and Mid Wales (i.e. the repeated suggestion that it makes sense to unite Wrexham and Welshpool, the idea of having Bethesda in the same seat as Caernarfon but not Bangor; that's a particularly good one because in between Bethesda and Llanberis are are several not small mountains and an impressive amount of industrial wasteland). I would agree that BUT LOCAL RIVALS THO and the like are not a good arguments and should be ignored. Machynlleth in the same seat as Dolgellau, for instance, is perfectly logical even if it wouldn't be popular. Transport links are good and they are culturally and economically very similar. |
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Post by afleitch on Mar 19, 2016 20:14:17 GMT
True but we aren't dealing with the Alps here. But on those grounds why even bother paying any attention to any local considerations whatsoever? Just draw random shapes with the correct number of electors and give each a number rather than a name. Of course that is the logical end result of the new rules, but its also what literally no one really wants... Anyway the worst examples of WHY ARE YOU IGNORING BASIC GEOGRAPHY in that sense in this thread have come for proposals in North and Mid Wales (i.e. the repeated suggestion that it makes sense to unite Wrexham and Welshpool, the idea of having Bethesda in the same seat as Caernarfon but not Bangor; that's a particularly good one because in between Bethesda and Llanberis are are several not small mountains and an impressive amount of industrial wasteland). I would agree that BUT LOCAL RIVALS THO and the like are not a good arguments and should be ignored. Machynlleth in the same seat as Dolgellau, for instance, is perfectly logical even if it wouldn't be popular. Transport links are good and they are culturally and economically very similar. It's entirely possible to have 7 barely above quota seats in North Wales, excluding the ward that was transferred into Powys Council in 1996 and including instead the town of Machynlleth. I did this in 5 minutes. It's not perfect but I think it's almost excusable (I have no love for the Costa Geriatrica so carve away), even with the coast to border seat. At least you can drive across it.  That allows you to have a Powys seat as far as the norther boundary of the Brecon Beacons National Park. Cardigan can be combined with North Pembrokeshire giving some sort of South Pembroke seat and some sort of Carmarthen seat with Llanelli bleeding across (Gower/Swansea will always be a bitch to get right) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 19, 2016 20:29:42 GMT
Here's my attempt at Wales. I'll take whatever criticisms are due but I'm reasonably happy with South Wales as far as West as Swansea. My Llanalli is an awful mess and I'm not too keen on the Mid Wales seats but there's little alternative to creating some kind of mess there.   |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Mar 20, 2016 9:07:30 GMT
If anything, I think there's a disservice to the rest of Wales if the starting point is 'getting the Valley's right.' Rural Wales and Welsh speaking Wales need to be seats that are far more reflective of geography and language. It's only a disservice to the areas immediately adjoining the Valleys – the Valleys will have the same number of MPs regardless, and therefore relatively few knock-on consequences will happen for the rest of Wales (unless it's a total regional gerrymander). For instance, the thing I least like about YL's post is the way that in the area immediately south of the mountain ridge that forms the southern edge of the Valleys, the three communities of Llantrisant, Llanharan, and Pencoed are all split. The worst bit is that because of the mountain ridge to the north, this area has a strong east-west axis between Cardiff and Bridgend. Putting it with Pontypridd is okay, as that sort of branches off the axis on the eastern end, both via Beddau/Penycoedcae and via Llantwit Fardre/Trefforest. Cowbridge would be fine (as it's also on a Cardiff-Bridgend axis), but not helpful with these numbers. But putting part of this area north with the Rhondda runs against local ties and doesn't appreciate the tension between the two areas on local issues (e.g. road safety – or lunatics from the Rhondda causing road deaths, as it would be put it Llantrisant). If a Rhondda combination were necessary, it would be best to split the Rhondda, with the Rhondda Fawr going with Llantrisant and Llantwit, and the Rhondda Fach going with Pontypridd. But much better to leave Pontypridd and Llantrisant together and let the Rhondda go somewhere else. Well, I can rearrange things so that Llantrisant stays with Pontypridd and that Aberdare and Mountain Ash go with the Rhondda, but is that any better? I can also realign the border between Bridgend and Aberavon & Ogmore so that Pencoed and Llanharan are united in Bridgend, but Pyle and Cornelly move to A&O. Any other suggestions? |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Mar 20, 2016 11:17:21 GMT
I would run the valley constituencies north south rather than east west as much as you can.....
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Post by Penddu on Mar 21, 2016 3:38:55 GMT
29 Welsh constituencies of which every single one is quorate The ceredigion seat look a bit of a mess - adding Llanidloes and Builth Wells just doesn't make sense to me. I would Create a Ceredigion Seat which Includes the Teifi Valley and the Preseli area - Most West Point being Scleddau - which would give you an eectorate of 73,808. The rest of Pembrokeshire would then fall neatly into71,822 without needing to add Whitland. But the dogs breakfast which is Ceredigion would be how a Liberal Democrat would do it to take in potential LD voters from Powys and avoiding taking in Plaid strengths in Teifi Valley...shame on you Harry... |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Mar 21, 2016 8:11:46 GMT
These are all purely suggestions on how to create 29 quorate seats. I don't see you criticising other peoples suggestions for creating Labour heartlands when (as I have done) I've made Glan Conwy, Denbighshire, Wrexham and North Powys and Carmarthen exceptionally competitive.
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Post by Penddu on Mar 22, 2016 1:19:09 GMT
These are all purely suggestions on how to create 29 quorate seats. I don't see you criticising other peoples suggestions for creating Labour heartlands when (as I have done) I've made Glan Conwy, Denbighshire, Wrexham and North Powys and Carmarthen exceptionally competitive. Harry - I have said it a few posts ago - there is too much taffymandering going on with these reviews and boundaries should be objective as possible, respecting geographical barriers and community grouping but largely ignoring artificial bondaries Your Ceredigion is a bit too blatant.... |
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Post by Penddu on Mar 22, 2016 1:30:27 GMT
BTW Harry apart from cooked Ceredigion and skinny Powys I think you have done a good job elsewhere
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Post by Penddu on Mar 24, 2016 8:40:16 GMT
I have been playing around with Central Glamorgan - assuming that Merthyr and Caerphilly are joined into Gwent seats... I then would then create:
Cynon Taf - Cynon Valley plus Pontypridd Town inc Church Village, Tonteg, Treforest
Rhondda Ely - Rhondda and Ely Valleys including Llantrisant and Beddau areas
Barry - inc Penarth, Barry and eastern Vale of G as far as Rhoose
Bridgend - including Bridgend south of M4, Pencoed, Llanharan & Brynna, Western Vale of Glamorgan as far as Llantwit and Cowbridge
And then into West Glamorgan...
Afan & Ogwr - Ogmore, Garw, Llynfi and Afan valleys, Porthcawl, Margam and Port Talbot town
Neath - Neath town and valley plus Baglan Bay, Aberafan and Sanfields (not pretty but NPT has to be split somehow
Swansea Valley - including Swansea East, Pontardawe and up to Ystradgynlais
Swansea Gower - inc Swansea West and Gower area south of Gowerton.
Remaining areas of North Gower inc Gorseinon, Gowerton, Pontardulais join up with Llanelli in a cross Loughor seat.
And everything well inside quotas without too much clumsiness... (apart from Port Talbot)
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Post by Penddu on Mar 24, 2016 8:51:14 GMT
Cardiff splits easily into 3 seats. Nothing crossing Caerphilly Mountain.
Eastern Gwent splits fairly easily into
Monmouthshire - Monmouthshire plus Llanwern and Langstone
Torfaen - Torfaen plus Caldicot
Newport - Newport less a few nibbles to the North and East and also losing Rogerstone and maybe Marshfield to Western Gwent
Western Gwent then also splits fairly easily into:
Merthyr Rhymni - Merthyr and the Rhymni Valley north of Caerphilly
Blaenau Gwent - Blaenau Gwent plus the northern Islwyn area
Caerphilly - Caerphilly town plus southern Islwyn plus a little bit of Western Newport
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Post by Penddu on Mar 24, 2016 13:04:19 GMT
Cardiff splits easily into 3 seats. Nothing crossing Caerphilly Mountain. Eastern Gwent splits fairly easily into Monmouthshire - Monmouthshire plus Llanwern and Langstone Torfaen - Torfaen plus Caldicot Newport - Newport less a few nibbles to the North and East and also losing Rogerstone and maybe Marshfield to Western Gwent Western Gwent then also splits fairly easily into: Merthyr Rhymni - Merthyr and the Rhymni Valley north of Caerphilly Blaenau Gwent - Blaenau Gwent plus the northern Islwyn area Caerphilly - Caerphilly town plus southern Islwyn plus a little bit of Western Newport Is that the Caldicot known as Caerleon? ;-) Looking forward to seeing maps of what you're suggesting. doh....yes that woukd be the Caerleon Caldicott.... i will try and work the maps out... |
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,742
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Post by Adrian on Apr 1, 2016 12:48:41 GMT
I've finally got round to Wales, and I think it's got easier compared to last time. I've added the Machynlleth area to Merioneth which makes a huge seat but it's better I think than taking a piece of NE Powys. Then the south of Powys combines with leftover bits of Carmarthenshire and Neath (to create a reasonable seat, albeit one without a suitable name - Cwm Twrch, anyone?) and then the rest is relatively straightforward.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 1, 2016 12:56:38 GMT
I've finally got round to Wales, and I think it's got easier compared to last time. I've added the Machynlleth area to Merioneth which makes a huge seat but it's better I think than taking a piece of Powys. Then the south of Powys combines with leftover bits of Carmarthenshire and Neath (to create a reasonable seat, albeit one without a suitable name - Cwm Twrch, anyone?) and then the rest is relatively straightforward. er.. is that Machynlleth, Powys ? |
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