2018 Review - Wales

[J.G.Harston]

Mar 7, 2017 7:33:33 GMT Penddu said:

It is also amazing how many people seem to think that the parliamentary boundary changes equate to changing councils...some people should not be allowed to vote!

I struggle to keep my thoughts on track when talking to one of my town council colleagues as he says "... and this means we'll be going into Cleveland and get out of Scarborough's clutches"

[Harry Hayfield]

If the votes for the Boundary changes were based on the effects they would have in Wales, this is how the Welsh delegation of MP's would vote

AYE
Conservatives (8), Labour (28)

NOE
Plaid Cymru (4)

This is because using the figures published by Electoral Calculus, the Conservatives would win six seats in a shrunken Welsh delegation (no change on 2015), Labour would win 23 seats (up 5 on 2015) and Plaid Cymru would be wiped out.

[LDCaerdydd]

Who do you have as winning the enlarged Ceredigion and Meirionnydd seats?

[Harry Hayfield]

Jun 30, 2017 19:58:24 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Who do you have as winning the enlarged Ceredigion and Meirionnydd seats?

Ceredigion: Con 14,001, Lab 13,717, Lib Dem 12,575, Plaid 13,660, UKIP 881, Green 585, Ind 290, Others 164 (Con)
Gwynedd: Con 18,022, Lab 17,612, Lib Dem 1,470, Plaid 16,33, UKIP 570 (Con)

[Penddu]

It looks like the BCW are coming back fro their summer holidays and we will get to see their revised proposals in September...

[goose]

Feb 28, 2017 12:26:06 GMT ian48 said:

The Tory counter-proposals in North Wales are far superior than those proposed by the Commission, to the extent that you wonder why they couldn't have come up with that in the first place.

Do you have a map or a link?

[Penddu]

It is fair to say that there is a 7 year old schoolgirl in Machynlleth who came up with a better plan for the North Wales rural seats than the BCW proposals...

[Penddu]

It appears that the current boundary review is going to be scrapped and everything will start again on the basis of 650 seats, which in the case of Wales means 32 seats.

I have done a quick review of what this means, and it looks like it will be a much easier excercise, avoidong most of the gepgraphical problems that the previous reviews of 30 or 29 seats had.

Gwynedd, Clwyd & Montgomeryshire = 8 seats Still needs a cross Berwyn seat but at least Montgomeryshire would stay intact
Dyfed = 4 seats
West Glamorgan = 4 seats
Gwent (exc Caerffili) & Brecon = 5 seats Extending Brecon south along the Usk Valley to take in northern Monmouthshire
Central Glamorgan (inc Cardiff) = 6 seats
North Glamorgan (inc Caerffili) = 5 seats

But I am not going to do any spreadsheets or mess around with Boundary Asst until soemone makes their mind up!

[cibwr]

IIRC one boundary commission did suggest a Brecon and Usk Valley seat in the 1980s, but it came to nothing.

[Penddu]

Sept 8, 2017 12:59:27 GMT @jamesdowden said:

Sept 8, 2017 7:08:41 GMT Penddu said:

It appears that the current boundary review is going to be scrapped and everything will start again on the basis of 650 seats, which in the case of Wales means 32 seats.

I have done a quick review of what this means, and it looks like it will be a much easier excercise, avoidong most of the gepgraphical problems that the previous reviews of 30 or 29 seats had.

Gwynedd, Clwyd & Montgomeryshire = 8 seats Still needs a cross Berwyn seat but at least Montgomeryshire would stay intact
Dyfed = 4 seats
West Glamorgan = 4 seats
Gwent (exc Caerffili) & Brecon = 5 seats Extending Brecon south along the Usk Valley to take in northern Monmouthshire
Central Glamorgan (inc Cardiff) = 6 seats
North Glamorgan (inc Caerffili) = 5 seats

But I am not going to do any spreadsheets or mess around with Boundary Asst until soemone makes their mind up!

Trashing Monmouth (and probably Torfaen) just to save Montgomeryshire seems excessive to me. It would be more sensible to go for:

Monmouthshire: 1 [1.00] (no major change)
Torfaen: 1 [0.97] (no major change)
Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, and Newport: 4 [4.05] (-1.5)
Cardiff, Vale of Glamorgan, and Bridgend: 6 [6.17] (-1)
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhondda Cynon Taf: 3 [3.07] (-0.5)
Neath Port Talbot and Swansea: 4 [3.96] (-1)
Carmarthenshire: 2 [1.96] (-0.5)
Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire: 2 [2.02] (-0.5)
North and Mid Wales: 9 [8.81] (-3)

That would work as well... my point is that with 32 seats it seems relatively easy to reach a working solution. Much easier than 29 or 30.

[Penddu]

To repeat my comment in the other thread, I think that the revised proposals for Wales - particularly the rural seats in North Wales - are a huge improvement (and remarkably similar to my proposals).

Mostly minor changes elsewhere, but I am glad they have had another go at Port Talbot. I don't think that the Afan Valley has any ties...let alone physical connection.. with Neath, but it is a better compromise than splitting Port Talbot from Aberavon.

But probably all a moot point as the whole thing looks like to be cancelled in any case.

[minionofmidas]

The Assistant Commissioners accepting the Tory wishlist for Cardiff in its entirety and the Commission overruling them was very funny.

The North is certainly improved (especially if you have links to Bala town...) although being St Asaph kind of sucks.

Also, made me chuckle (from the AC report)

The Commission included these wards within the De Clwyd a Gogledd Sir Faldwyn constituency forming part of the Initial Proposals, in part, to enable sufficient road access to all parts of the proposed constituency. However, that would involve crossing the Berwyn Mountains and the evidence indicates that in practice most people would use the Oswestry by-pass for this purpose. See, for example, representations 8180 and submission by Liz Saville Roberts MP

[Penddu]

One of the comments I liked in the report was when it rejected the name of Cardigan Bay because it was artificial. Unless I am being thick, isn't every County name artificial...whether created in the 13th, 15th or 20th century? Where exactly is Torfaen?

And why do obscure villages like Rhuddlan take prominence over their bigger neighbour Rhyl....

And why do some towns like Llanelli or Wrexham feature while others such as Barry, Port Talbot & Cwmbran don't?

[Lord Twaddleford]

Oct 19, 2017 2:14:21 GMT Penddu said:

And why do obscure villages like Rhuddlan take prominence over their bigger neighbour Rhyl....

I'd argue that Rhuddlan is hardly an obscure village, the place even has a constitutional document named after it!

But seriously, the place does have some history behind it. That said, I suspect the name of the proposed Flint & Rhuddlan seat may be more of a reference to the former pre-1996 borough-district of county Clwyd, a bit like with the current Aberconwy seat (plus a few others in the valleys).

[greatkingrat]

Final recommendations

Flint and Rhuddlan renamed Rhuddlan and Flint

[Deleted]

Sept 10, 2018 13:17:53 GMT greatkingrat said:

Final recommendations

Flint and Rhuddlan renamed Rhuddlan and Flint

A hugely significant move.

[Deleted]

Final recommendations from Wales.

Attachments:

[jamie]

God help David Dimbleby trying to pronounce "Ceredigion a Gogledd Sir Benfro" and "De Clwyd a Gogledd Maldwyn".

[goose]

Sept 10, 2018 14:57:56 GMT jamie said:

God help David Dimbleby trying to pronounce "Ceredigion a Gogledd Sir Benfro" and "De Clwyd a Gogledd Maldwyn".

I think 2017 was Dimbleby's last outing and it will be Huw Edwards next time, so we shouldn't have a problem on that front.

[jamie]

Sept 10, 2018 14:59:36 GMT goose said:

I think 2017 was Dimbleby's last outing and it will be Huw Edwards next time, so we shouldn't have a problem on that front.

Hopefully he can teach Emily Maitlis and the rest of the crew then.