Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,887 
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 16, 2016 20:03:08 GMT
adding Cowbridge to Bridgend in place of St Athan. This also seems to make more sense for the Bridgend - Vale of Glamorgan boundary. You are very right! The other ProPosals by the Commission for the south were roughly also mine, but Cowbridge is really strange. |
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Post by Penddu on Sept 17, 2016 4:51:25 GMT
I think that across the south, the BCW have got it spot on (at least for the boundaries if not the names) but the Bridgend boundaries need revisting - they are not unworkable but could be improved.
The only really ugly proposal they have made is in the north, where the Gwynedd-Clwyd-North Powys carve up is just a mess.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 17, 2016 7:19:36 GMT
You can sort out mid Wales very easily, without crossing the Powys/Dyfed border. Take Brecon/Radnor/Montgomery and add back in the two wards in Ceredigion. Extend Ceredigion to compensate by adding in Llanybydder and Llanfihangel-ar-Arth wards from Carmarthenshire. Take Llanboidy ward out of South Pembrokeshire and add it to Carmarthenshire, then take Tycroes from Llanelli and add it to Carmarthenshire.  Yes, but remember the fuss that Machynlleth made about being placed in Gwynedd in 2013, under this suggestion the same could happen again. |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,887
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 17, 2016 14:25:11 GMT
One problem the BoundaryCommission hasn't dealt with is, that if these seats are used for the Assembly too, than how do You want to group them in Mid and North?
- 7 North, 5 Mid (with Llangyfelach being a part of it)?
- 5 North, 6 Mid (Llanelli&Lliw then in the SW)?
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Foggy
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Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Sept 17, 2016 16:29:51 GMT
They'll have to come up with a completely different system for the Assembly by 2021... but let's not get sidetracked by that again just yet.
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Harry Hayfield
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Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 17, 2016 16:48:21 GMT
One problem the BoundaryCommission hasn't dealt with is, that if these seats are used for the Assembly too, than how do You want to group them in Mid and North? - 7 North, 5 Mid (with Llangyfelach being a part of it)? - 5 North, 6 Mid (Llanelli&Lliw then in the SW)? This is precisely one of the reasons why the Wales Bill seeks to devolve responsibility for the Assembly elections to the Assembly, so they can figure out how many seats and how they are designed. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,887
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 17, 2016 17:30:35 GMT
One problem the BoundaryCommission hasn't dealt with is, that if these seats are used for the Assembly too, than how do You want to group them in Mid and North? - 7 North, 5 Mid (with Llangyfelach being a part of it)? - 5 North, 6 Mid (Llanelli&Lliw then in the SW)? This is precisely one of the reasons why the Wales Bill seeks to devolve responsibility for the Assembly elections to the Assembly, so they can figure out how many seats and how they are designed. Ah, thanks, didn't know this. A pity, that the public gets confused with belonging to different constituencies (as in Scotland). |
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Post by Penddu on Sept 18, 2016 3:51:01 GMT
You can sort out mid Wales very easily, without crossing the Powys/Dyfed border. Yes, but remember the fuss that Machynlleth made about being placed in Gwynedd in 2013, under this suggestion the same could happen again. I dont remember a 'fuss' but there was some objections at the time. But if the town council were given a straight choice between part if a Gwynedd seat or part of a South Clwyd seat they might be more objective. |
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Post by Penddu on Oct 8, 2016 5:25:12 GMT
I have today submitted my alternative props as for Bridgend to BCW.
Bridgend gaining Cowbridge from Vale of Glamorgan while losing St Athan.
Bridgend gaining Pencoed & Llanharan areas from Port Talbot while losing Porthcawl and Pyle areas.
This made Bridgend a bit light and Port Talbot overweight, so I also moved Sarn and Bryncoch into Bridgend.
I think this is much more natural than the original Bridgend proposal and keeps the required quota in all three affected seats.
I also suggested the revised names:
Vale of Glamorgan
Bridgend
Port Talbot & Ogmore
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 8, 2016 7:51:19 GMT
I have today submitted my alternative props as for Bridgend to BCW. Bridgend gaining Cowbridge from Vale of Glamorgan while losing St Athan. Bridgend gaining Pencoed & Llanharan areas from Port Talbot while losing Porthcawl and Pyle areas. This made Bridgend a bit light and Port Talbot overweight, so I also moved Sarn and Bryncoch into Bridgend. I think this is much more natural than the original Bridgend proposal and keeps the required quota in all three affected seats. I also suggested the revised names: Vale of Glamorgan Bridgend Port Talbot & Ogmore Well, based on what they have told me, they might well acknowledge it but ultimately reject it as it is not an all Wales submission. That's what I am working on (basing it on just my Dyfed and Powys suggestion, having been told so by a member of the team organising the event) and am just starting on Bridgend, Neath and Port Talbot and Swansea (leaving just North Wales to do after attending the meeting) |
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Post by Penddu on Oct 8, 2016 8:10:34 GMT
Harry, that is not my understanding. Yes you can not make a single constituency proposal without considering impact on surrounding constituencies, which is what I have done. I have provided full details of changes to 3 constituencies but which do not impact the remaining 26 constituencies and therefore constitute an 'all-wales' proposal.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 8, 2016 8:26:37 GMT
Here's the thing Harry. The area North of of Dyfed/Powys (ie the 'old' counties of Gwtynedd and Clwyd) have an electorate of 501,126 which is 6.66 quotas. If you give 7 whole seats to this region you have an average electorate of 71,589 which is only about 500 above the minimum quota. It may be possible to draw 7 seats within such tight constraints but I should think it would be very difficult and unnecessarily so. Furthermore in the remaining areas of South Wales (Glamorganshire and Gwent) you're left with 1,310,072 for 17 seats which gives an average of 77,063 - again dangerously close to the maximum. So basically putting a hard boundary at the northern border of Dyfed and Powys is a non-starter
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2016 8:39:32 GMT
I'd be very surprised if they are genuinely rejecting proposals for not being "all Wales". As Penddu says all people have to do is outline their alternative and then say "And the rest of Wales is the same as the BCW"
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Post by Penddu on Oct 8, 2016 10:44:02 GMT
Here's the thing Harry. The area North of of Dyfed/Powys (ie the 'old' counties of Gwtynedd and Clwyd) have an electorate of 501,126 which is 6.66 quotas. If you give 7 whole seats to this region you have an average electorate of 71,589 which is only about 500 above the minimum quota. It may be possible to draw 7 seats within such tight constraints but I should think it would be very difficult and unnecessarily so. Furthermore in the remaining areas of South Wales (Glamorganshire and Gwent) you're left with 1,310,072 for 17 seats which gives an average of 77,063 - again dangerously close to the maximum. So basically putting a hard boundary at the northern border of Dyfed and Powys is a non-starter Whereas if you place a 'hard' border at the south of Powys, then that gives 8 seats above and 21 below, and much easier to maintain the quota. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 8, 2016 12:02:55 GMT
Here's the thing Harry. The area North of of Dyfed/Powys (ie the 'old' counties of Gwtynedd and Clwyd) have an electorate of 501,126 which is 6.66 quotas. If you give 7 whole seats to this region you have an average electorate of 71,589 which is only about 500 above the minimum quota. It may be possible to draw 7 seats within such tight constraints but I should think it would be very difficult and unnecessarily so. Furthermore in the remaining areas of South Wales (Glamorganshire and Gwent) you're left with 1,310,072 for 17 seats which gives an average of 77,063 - again dangerously close to the maximum. So basically putting a hard boundary at the northern border of Dyfed and Powys is a non-starter That South is going to be a challenge, but the North works, actually. (Somehow, I managed to get fewer people into the Ynys Mon seat by adding Caernarfon town instead of more of Bangor's hinterland. Weird.) 
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 8, 2016 12:26:46 GMT
Well it can be done and doesn't look too bad. There you go Harry - we've done ytour whole-wales plan for you  |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 8, 2016 12:35:41 GMT
Well, I am glad that it can be done, although minionofmidas and Pete Whitehead I have the added problem of Boundary Assistant not working for me (I can select one area but as soon as I do a second it times out) |
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 8, 2016 12:48:37 GMT
Well it can be done and doesn't look too bad. There you go Harry - we've done ytour whole-wales plan for you Ooh, beat me. let's see how they compare. (The Cardiff thing is something I drew a long time ago and am just reusing here because I was too lazy to look up the Commission's.)  Upper Cynon can be exchanged for Tonyrefail and Pont-y-Clun if preferred. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 8, 2016 13:13:39 GMT
Harry never actually posted his Mid Wales. Something like this?  |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Oct 8, 2016 14:19:46 GMT
Here's the thing Harry. The area North of of Dyfed/Powys (ie the 'old' counties of Gwtynedd and Clwyd) have an electorate of 501,126 which is 6.66 quotas. If you give 7 whole seats to this region you have an average electorate of 71,589 which is only about 500 above the minimum quota. It may be possible to draw 7 seats within such tight constraints but I should think it would be very difficult and unnecessarily so. Furthermore in the remaining areas of South Wales (Glamorganshire and Gwent) you're left with 1,310,072 for 17 seats which gives an average of 77,063 - again dangerously close to the maximum. So basically putting a hard boundary at the northern border of Dyfed and Powys is a non-starter That South is going to be a challenge, but the North works, actually. (Somehow, I managed to get fewer people into the Ynys Mon seat by adding Caernarfon town instead of more of Bangor's hinterland. Weird.)
Whilst I understand balancing the numbers might be a bit tricky, I'd try to at least keep Caerhun grouped with the Conwy and Colwyn Bay seat. Also, you appear to have split Towyn & Kinmel Bay there; I'd try to keep that town intact, and keep it grouped with Abergele. You also appear to have split Flint too. As a general rule, if a town's population enables it to fit inside a single constituency, it's probably better to try and keep it all together. |
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