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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 20, 2016 5:41:28 GMT
4 seat Cardiff (not too different from Zombie Review) Ynys Mon ac Arfon 71369 Gwynedd 73642 Conwy 74811 Rhyl & Flint 78253 Mold & Deeside 78280 Wrexham 74968 Denbighshire 71318 Ceredigion 71560 Powys 77747 Pembrokeshire 74070 Carmarthenshire 72628 Llanelli 71057 Swansea West & Gower 77950 Swansea East 75017 Neath 75670 Port Talbot & Porthcawl 75609 Rhondda & Aberdare 77674 Bridgend 77564 Vale of Glamorgan 72365 Cardiff West 77266 Cardiff South & Penarth 75946 Cardiff East 78348 Cardiff North & Caerphilly 73844 Pontypridd 71298 Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 76147 Blaenau Gwent 76643 Torfaen 77367 Newport 75329 Monmouthshire 78101   |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 23, 2016 9:17:51 GMT
Wales based on old districts Ynys Mon ac Arfon 76706 Dwyfor Meirionnydd & Aberconwy 75489 Colwyn 73050 Delyn & Rhuddlan 78253 Alyn & Deeside 78280 Wrexham Maelor 71501 Glyndŵr 72225 Brecknock, Radnor & Montgomery 74884 Ceredigion & Preseli 78238 South Pembrokeshire 77942 Carmarthen & Dinefwr 78241 Llanelli & Lliw Valley 77106 Swansea West 76085 Swansea East 76450 Neath & Afan 77178 Ogwr 77408 Cardiff West & Vale of Glamorgan 73270 Cardiff South & Barry 74550 Cardiff Central 75773 Cardiff North 73387 Cardiff East & Rogerstone 72126 Newport 75035 Rhondda & Lower Cynon 72848 Taff-Ely 72424 Merthyr Tydfil, Aberdare & Rhymney 71614 Rhymney Valley 73854 Blaenau Gwent 77926 Torfaen & Islwyn 72381 Monmouthshire 77617    |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 23, 2016 11:45:01 GMT
Wales 40 SEATS Clwyd West ABOLISHED Cardiff East CREATED Ynys Mon 49287 Arfon & Conwy 58374 Dwyfor Meirionnydd 51633 Colwyn 58945 Delyn 56977 Alyn & Deeside 55961 Vale of Clwyd 54187 Wrexham 57188 Glyndŵr 52614 Montgomeryshire 52949 Brecon & Radnor 52273 Ceredigion 50432 Preseli Pembrokeshire 54180 Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire 55576 Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 53991 Llanelli 57202 Gower 54080 Swansea West 57513 Swansea East 55229 Neath 51954 Aberavon 51083 Bridgend 50762 Ogmore 50922 Vale of Glamorgan 59587 Cardiff South & Penarth 51683 Cardiff Central 50038 Cardiff East 50141 Cardiff North 55054 Cardiff West 52431 Pontypridd 52364 Rhondda 58670 Cynon Valley 55919 Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 53166 Caerphilly 55400 Islwyn 59064 Blaenau Gwent 58856 Torfaen 56958 Newport West 59763 Newport East 57596 Monmouthshire 51839   |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 2, 2016 9:01:36 GMT
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 2, 2016 9:16:39 GMT
I am so pleased that someone hasn't dismissed the idea of Ceredigion going into Montgomeryshire (considering that when I suggested it I was roundly slammed for it). Making an educated guess I would make Cardigan Bay and Montgomeryshire West a three way marginal between Lib Dem, Plaid and Con.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 2, 2016 10:28:39 GMT
I am so pleased that someone hasn't dismissed the idea of Ceredigion going into Montgomeryshire (considering that when I suggested it I was roundly slammed for it). Making an educated guess I would make Cardigan Bay and Montgomeryshire West a three way marginal between Lib Dem, Plaid and Con. I was wondering about that but seeing the Tories only got 11% in Ceredigion last time and thats most of the seat they're unlikely to have been that close in a notional result while there's hardly any Plaid vote in Montogomeryshire or in North Pembs. Not much Lib Dem vote in the latter either, but I'd guess that notionally this would be fairly solid Lib Dem. But of course a decent amount of Lib Dem vote in Ceredigion is probably Tory voters so I'd think they'd be in with a bit of a chance if actually fought on these boundaries |
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Post by matt84 on Sept 5, 2016 8:48:26 GMT
I might comment on North Wales as that's my patch. I think overall it's fairly good, but I might shift a few wards around in North West Wales. If at all possible, I would add the following wards to Conwy and Colwyn: Caerhun, Llansanffraid and Betws yn Rhos. A lot of these wards is basically the outer fringes and suburbs of Conwy, Llandudno and Colwyn Bay with little distinction. To compensate, I would move Llanfairfechan (and maybe Penmaenmawr) to Bangor and Ynys Mon and the shift a few wards near Caernarfon from that seat to Gwynedd.
It would be interesting to hear your thoughts on notional results as I guess that Conwy and Colwyn, Denbigh and Flintshire West would have been Conservative in 2015 (the first by getting on for a 10,000 majority I imagine). Flintshire East and Bangor Ynys Mon would have been Labour , the first heavily, the latter a bit less. Wrexham would have been very close I imagine as the Maelor would have been heavily Tory.
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Post by Penddu on Sept 6, 2016 11:38:14 GMT
I am so pleased that someone hasn't dismissed the idea of Ceredigion going into Montgomeryshire (considering that when I suggested it I was roundly slammed for it). Making an educated guess I would make Cardigan Bay and Montgomeryshire West a three way marginal between Lib Dem, Plaid and Con. I was wondering about that but seeing the Tories only got 11% in Ceredigion last time and thats most of the seat they're unlikely to have been that close in a notional result while there's hardly any Plaid vote in Montogomeryshire or in North Pembs. Not much Lib Dem vote in the latter either, but I'd guess that notionally this would be fairly solid Lib Dem. But of course a decent amount of Lib Dem vote in Ceredigion is probably Tory voters so I'd think they'd be in with a bit of a chance if actually fought on these boundaries The fact that there is not currently much Plaid vote in Montgomeryshire or Conservative vote in Ceredigion, does not mean that this would be the case with changed boundaries. Many voters dont vote for their first choice if they think it is a wasted vote, but instead use their vote to prevent their least favourite choice from winning. If they think they have a chance of winning they will switch back to their preffered choice. (But not saying it would make much of a difference here) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 6, 2016 11:41:50 GMT
Yes I think that's pretty clearly what I said
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Post by Penddu on Sept 6, 2016 14:16:57 GMT
Yes I think that's pretty clearly what I said But maybe not quite so eloquently as I put it.... |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Sept 9, 2016 5:27:10 GMT
Electoral Calculus Initial Proposals Vote Projections | Row 1 column 1 | Row 1 column 2 | Row 1 column 3 | Row 1 column 4 | Row 1 column 5 | Row 1 column 6 | Row 1 column 7 | Row 1 column 8 | | Row 2 column 1 | Row 2 column 2 | Row 2 column 3 | Row 2 column 4 | Row 2 column 5 | Row 2 column 6 | Row 2 column 7 | Row 2 column 8 | | Row 3 column 1 | Row 3 column 2 | Row 3 column 3 | Row 3 column 4 | Row 3 column 5 | Row 3 column 6 | Row 3 column 7 | Row 3 column 8 | | Row 4 column 1 | Row 4 column 2 | Row 4 column 3 | Row 4 column 4 | Row 4 column 5 | Row 4 column 6 | Row 4 column 7 | Row 4 column 8 | | Row 5 column 1 | Row 5 column 2 | Row 5 column 3 | Row 5 column 4 | Row 5 column 5 | Row 5 column 6 | Row 5 column 7 | Row 5 column 8 | | Row 6 column 1 | Row 6 column 2 | Row 6 column 3 | Row 6 column 4 | Row 6 column 5 | Row 6 column 6 | Row 6 column 7 | Row 6 column 8 | | Row 7 column 1 | Row 7 column 2 | Row 7 column 3 | Row 7 column 4 | Row 7 column 5 | Row 7 column 6 | Row 7 column 7 | Row 7 column 8 | | Row 8 column 1 | Row 8 column 2 | Row 8 column 3 | Row 8 column 4 | Row 8 column 5 | Row 8 column 6 | Row 8 column 7 | Row 8 column 8 |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Sept 13, 2016 0:34:23 GMT
The proposal for "Colwyn & Conwy" should be held up as an example of how not to draw a constituency. For one thing it places Conwy and Llandudno with Abergele, whilst I can see the sense in putting Conwy and Llandudno in with Colwyn Bay (they do pretty much form one big contigious conurbation with each other), I believe Abergele would do better grouped with either Rhyl & Prestatyn, or some Denbigh centred constituency (to be honest, I never felt that Abergele even belonged in the same local authority, but's another matter entirely). Also, what's with the placement of Caerhun?!?! So many things wrong, so little time to list the faults... Dreck, utter dreck... And that's the nice assessment.  |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Sept 13, 2016 0:42:29 GMT
I will say this though, the boundaries (and names) of the Flint & Rhuddlan, Alyn & Deeside and Wrexham Maelor seats look suspiciously similar to what people on this site (myself included) have come up with...  www.bcw2018.org.uk |
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,742
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Post by Adrian on Sept 13, 2016 0:46:28 GMT
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Sept 13, 2016 0:46:59 GMT
Cardiff doesn't seem too bad.
Central was always going to be abolished and putting it with much of North seemed the least painful option. Attaching Taffs Well is also a decision which isn't the worst one to make.
Cardiff South AND East is a ridiculous name though. It suggests they are hedging their bets...
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,059
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 13, 2016 0:49:35 GMT
Those big rural seats wow. Did anyone have Llŷn to St Asaph? God.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,059
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 13, 2016 0:51:06 GMT
Also Llanidoes in the same seat as Fishguard?!!!?
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Sept 13, 2016 0:52:36 GMT
I think it may have been a mistake not to grant Ynys Mon protected status like the Scottish islands, that may have had something of a knock-on effect on the others. Otherwise, I could think of a few reasonable* boundaries for the North had Ynys Mon been allowed to stand on its own. *Subjective |
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ian48
Non-Aligned
Posts: 58
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Post by ian48 on Sept 13, 2016 7:43:47 GMT
The proposal for "Colwyn & Conwy" should be held up as an example of how not to draw a constituency. For one thing it places Conwy and Llandudno with Abergele, whilst I can see the sense in putting Conwy and Llandudno in with Colwyn Bay (they do pretty much form one big contigious conurbation with each other), I believe Abergele would do better grouped with either Rhyl & Prestatyn, or some Denbigh centred constituency (to be honest, I never felt that Abergele even belonged in the same local authority, but's another matter entirely). Also, what's with the placement of Caerhun?!?! So many things wrong, so little time to list the faults... Dreck, utter dreck... And that's the nice assessment. Lord Twaddleford, I do really think your evident personal dislike for Abergele and objection to it being in the same seat as Llandudno, Conwy and Colwyn Bay is truly bizarre. You've repeated it several times and I wouldn't want other readers of this blog to start believing you on this point. Abergele is perfectly acceptable as part of a seat containing settlements to the West. They are barely 10 miles away and share very similar demographics. Pensarn might be slightly different but certainly Gele and Pentre Mawr wards are a perfectly respectable and good fit. As someone who grew up in Llandudno, I had loads of friends and relations who lived in Abergele, as did many people I knew. The local school (Emrys ap Iwan) would often compete with schools our end over schools to the East and many teenagers attend college in Rhos on sea. Lots of people would go to the market in Abergele (indeed it was traditionally the main market town for north Denbighshire, though the market was a bit more 'popular' and less farmery when I knew it). It has been in the same county as Llandudno and Conwy for 20 years and in the same as the now Colwyn Bay area for over 500. While Rhyl maybe the main port of call for Abergele folk for some services, to say as you are that Abergele is fundamentally different from Colwyn Bay, Llandudno and Conwy is putting your own prejudices above reality. |
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Post by afleitch on Sept 13, 2016 7:51:45 GMT
Take 2,6,8 and 29 and rejig that grouping. The rest of Wales is pretty acceptable.
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