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Post by matt84 on Aug 10, 2016 19:29:48 GMT
I honestly don't see any problem with putting Glan Conwy in with Abergele. Glan Conwy should definitely go with the urban coastal wards in any redistribution. 40 years ago you could have said otherwise but it's pretty much English speaking suburbia these days. In fact Abergele and Llansanffraid Glan Conwy were in the same seat right up until 1983 anyway. Very few people would have any problem with that happening again. Get further than Glan Conwy down the Conwy Valley (like Eglwysbach) and I would say differences become apparent, but anyone who says Abergele and Glan Conwy are overwhelmingly different is just being at best facetious. Whilst there are a few fiddly little amendments that I would make to a few of the North Wales seats (which I won't go into here), I just wanted to say "Thank You" for not putting Abergele and Llansanffraid into the same constituency.  |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 10, 2016 23:08:59 GMT
@ozswingvoterproxy You can now log back in to your old account AustralianSwingVoter if you so wish. But going forward, please refrain from repeating yourself and demanding instant replies to your questions. thank you so much!!!!! |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2016 0:28:56 GMT
@ozswingvoterproxy You can now log back in to your old account AustralianSwingVoter if you so wish. But going forward, please refrain from repeating yourself and demanding instant replies to your questions. thank you so much!!!!! Actually scratch that... When I logged out then logged in again it showed my original account as banned and my ip address is still banned so could you actually unban me |
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Post by AdminSTB on Aug 11, 2016 4:59:59 GMT
Actually scratch that... When I logged out then logged in again it showed my original account as banned and my ip address is still banned so could you actually unban me Okay, try it now. I must have missed it because I was looking at your username nbcs2016 rather than your display name. |
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Post by Penddu on Aug 11, 2016 5:25:04 GMT
Greenhert....this is how i carved up Glamorgan...it is difficult to avoid a nasty split in Port Talbit without causing chaos elsewhere...but here is my shot...
My plans for Glamorgan – excluding Cardiff (3 self contained seats) and Merthyr (included with Gwent) , and excluding around 20,000 electorate from Swansea which are moved across the Loughor into Llanelli, are:
BARRY: 74,399 or 99..5%
Vale of Glamorgan UA excluding Cowbridge, Llandow, Llantwit, & St Brides which are transferred to BRIDGEND
CYNON TAF: (or PONTYPRIDD & CYNON) 76,170 or 101.9%
Cynon Valley, plus Pontypridd Town – Including Church Village, but excluding Llantwit Fardre
RHONDDA ELY: (or RHONDDA & LLANTRISANT) 76,081 or 101.8%
Rhondda Valley, plus Ely Valley & Llantrisant area, including Llantwit Fardre. Note Pontyclun area transferred to BRIDGEND
BRIDGEND: (or BRIDGEND SOUTH or BRIDGEND & COWBRIDGE) 74,357 or 99.4%
Bridgend Town, inc Penyfai & Pencoed; Llanharan, Brynna Llanharry and Pontyclun, from RCT plus Cowbridge, Llandow, Llantwit & St Brides from VoG
PORT TALBOT & OGMORE: (or AFAN & OGWR, or & BRIDGEND NORTH..etc) 77,212 or 103.3%
Port Talbot town (excluding Aberavon, Sandfields, Baglan areas which are transferred to NEATH & ABERAFAN) & Afan Valley from NPT ; Porthcawl area plus Llynfi, Ogmore & Garw Valleys from Bridgend.
NEATH & ABERAFAN: 77,397 or 103,5%
All remaining areas of NPT excluding Coedffranc which is transferred to SWANSEA EAST
SWANSEA EAST: (or Swansea North East): 76,514 or 102.3%
The former Swansea East constituency plus Castle, Mawr & Clydach plus Coedffranc area from NPT
SWANSEA WEST: 76,514 or 102.3%
The southern part of the former Gower Constituency up to Gowerton, plus former Swansea West excluding Castle
Remainder:
The northern part of the former Gower constituency including Gorseinon, Kingsbridge, Upper & Lower Loughor, Penyrheol & Pontardulais are transferred across the Loughor into a LLANELLI seat
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 11, 2016 12:22:42 GMT
3. West Flintshire (76,086). All Flintshire wards not in East Flintshire plus the Denbigh wards of Prestatyn (all), Rhyl (all), Dyserth, and Rhuddlan (all historically in Flintshire). Being only a foreigner, I saw it as my duty to care about Your HistoricalCounties, but with these quotas...: 
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 11, 2016 12:28:59 GMT
My own proposal (see top of 14) was wrongly mapped by me along the border of Alyn&Delyn, I am sorry. Here is the perfect (?) version:  |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 11, 2016 13:03:01 GMT
3. West Flintshire (76,086). All Flintshire wards not in East Flintshire plus the Denbigh wards of Prestatyn (all), Rhyl (all), Dyserth, and Rhuddlan (all historically in Flintshire). Being only a foreigner, I saw it as my duty to care about Your HistoricalCounties, but with these quotas...:
Ahem, Wales based on old Counties Anglesey & Caernarfonshire 71808 Merionethshire 74368 Colwyn & Llandudno 71447 Denbighshire 75972 Wrexham 71501 Rhyl & Prestatyn 77215 Mold & Deeside 76678 Breconshire, Radnorshire & Montgomeryshire 75137 Cardiganshire 76978 Pembrokeshire 77942 Carmarthenshire 77173 Llanelli 77843 Swansea West 77873 Swansea East 76974 Neath 76820 Rhondda & Maesteg 74612 Bridgend 78227 Merthyr Tydfil 72017 Aberdare & Pontypridd 72212 Glamorganshire 75751 Cardiff South, Barry & Penarth 74550 Caerphilly 72061 Cardiff West 75647 Cardiff East 77752 Newport West 76939 Newport East 72959 Cwmbran 72972 Blaenau Gwent 77873 Monmouthshire 72540   |
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Post by islington on Aug 12, 2016 10:44:51 GMT
3. West Flintshire (76,086). All Flintshire wards not in East Flintshire plus the Denbigh wards of Prestatyn (all), Rhyl (all), Dyserth, and Rhuddlan (all historically in Flintshire). Being only a foreigner, I saw it as my duty to care about Your HistoricalCounties, but with these quotas...:
Well, not being a foreigner, I am perhaps at greater liberty to say that I feel under no duty whatsoever to have regard to our traditional counties, which are of great interest to students of historical administrative geography but of no relevance at all to the current review. Very pretty map, though. |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Aug 12, 2016 12:20:33 GMT
For the Scotland review, I've noticed that the island constituencies have received protected status, yet over in Wales Ynys Mon has not. So, if you'll entertain it, a hypothetical scenario where Ynys Mon in protected. Currently under the upcoming boundary review, Wales has been allocated 29 seats, now I'm not sure if that'd change if Ynys Mon was allowed to remain intact, but for the purposes of this little excercise I have in mind, Wales effectively gets another constituency, with the task at hand being how to divide the Welsh mainland in 29 seats. Anglesey Electorate: 49,287 Welsh Electorate (minus Anglesey): 2,132,554 Quota: 73,536 Upper: 77,213 Lower: 69,859 (Upper and Lower limits are assuming a 5% tolerance) So, here's some of what I've come up with:  Beginning with good ol' North Wales, if you look at earlier posts in this thread you'll notice some similarities between this and another submission I had made, only this time I have not merged any part of the Dwyfor Meirionydd seat with any part of Montgomeryshire. The Denbigh seat is still a bit of a sprawling mess, but then again so was the pre-1983 iteration. Speaking of Denbigh...  Now in order for some of the numbers to work I had to put Betws-yn-Rhos ward into the Conwy & Colwyn seat, though here ideally the ward would be split, shifting the Llanfairtalhaern community council area (I roughly demarcated the ward split via the red line you see on the image, but the community council boundaries in Conwy County are better illustrated here) into the Denbigh seat, largely because I think the settlement has closer ties to Abergele than it does to Colwyn Bay, and also because it allows the A548 to stay largely within one constituency (barring of course the parts just in and out of Llanrwst, point being that the way it crossed in and out of the Conwy & Colwyn seat bothered me). A pity that the Boundary Assistant tool doesn't allow the use of community council wards as building blocks, for instances where multiple communities are represented under the same council ward, as then it could allow for some fine tuning potential. Moving on down south...  Now, if the boundaries you see here appear to scream " I have no idea what I'm doing!", then you're probably right. So far I have been unable to find an elegant solution to how to draw up contituencies for southern and mid Wales under these rules, and with a lack of familiarity with the area compounding things, I decided to just stop right there before I commited any more crimes against psephology and created constituencies whose boundaries make the blatant rountine gerrymandering of US congressional districts look subtle. Nonetheless, I'd imagine that the boundaries of the South Wales constituencies under these hypothetical rules probably wouldn't look too dissimilar to some of the proposals I've seen made under the actual rules. Anyway, like I said, just a fun* little hypothetical to think about. * Opinions may vary on this matter. |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 12, 2016 12:28:20 GMT
For the Scotland review, I've noticed that the island constituencies have received protected status, yet over in Wales Ynys Mon has not. So, if you'll entertain it, a hypothetical scenario where Ynys Mon in protected. Currently under the upcoming boundary review, Wales has been allocated 29 seats, now I'm not sure if that'd change if Ynys Mon was allowed to remain intact, but for the purposes of this little excercise I have in mind, Wales effectively gets another constituency, with the task at hand being how to divide the Welsh mainland in 29 seats. Anglesey Electorate: 49,287 Welsh Electorate (minus Anglesey): 2,132,554 Quota: 73,536 Upper: 77,213 Lower: 69,859 (Upper and Lower limits are assuming a 5% tolerance) So, here's some of what I've come up with: Beginning with good ol' North Wales, if you look at earlier posts in this thread you'll notice some similarities between this and another submission I had made, only this time I have not merged any part of the Dwyfor Meirionydd seat with any part of Montgomeryshire. The Denbigh seat is still a bit of a sprawling mess, but then again so was the pre-1983 iteration. Speaking of Denbigh... Now in order for some of the numbers to work I had to put Betws-yn-Rhos ward into the Conwy & Colwyn seat, though here ideally the ward would be split, shifting the Llanfairtalhaern community council area (I roughly demarcated the ward split via the red line you see on the image, but the community council boundaries in Conwy County are better illustrated here) into the Denbigh seat, largely because I think the settlement has closer ties to Abergele than it does to Colwyn Bay, and also because it allows the A548 to stay largely within one constituency (barring of course the parts just in and out of Llanrwst, point being that the way it crossed in and out of the Conwy & Colwyn seat bothered me). A pity that the Boundary Assistant tool doesn't allow the use of community council wards as building blocks, for instances where multiple communities are represented under the same council ward, as then it could allow for some fine tuning potential. Moving on down south... Now, if the boundaries you see here appear to scream " I have no idea what I'm doing!", then you're probably right. So far I have been unable to find an elegant solution to how to draw up contituencies for southern and mid Wales under these rules, and with a lack of familiarity with the area compounding things, I decided to just stop right there before I commited any more crimes against psephology and created constituencies whose boundaries make the blatant rountine gerrymandering of US congressional districts look subtle. Nonetheless, I'd imagine that the boundaries of the South Wales constituencies under these hypothetical rules probably wouldn't look too dissimilar to some of the proposals I've seen made under the actual rules. Anyway, like I said, just a fun* little hypothetical to think about. * Opinions may vary on this matter.Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease do South Wales, Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Aug 12, 2016 13:01:52 GMT
Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease do South Wales, Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease Maybe. If I do it will take a not insignificant period of time as I fiddle with the boundaries. Be patient. |
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Post by krollo on Aug 12, 2016 21:30:00 GMT
I had a quick go at this - it's not so bad if you accept some sort of Cardigan Bay type seat (essentially Ceredigion + the Gwynedd coast up to Porthmadog + Machynlleth and surrounds to keep a road link), for Ceredigion + Gwynedd + Conwy is OK for three seats. This allows my previous proposals for the North-East and Powys to remain largely the same, though I haven't followed it through to Pembs yet (presumably some shadow of South Pembs + Carmarthen would remain)
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Aug 12, 2016 22:09:01 GMT
I had a quick go at this - it's not so bad if you accept some sort of Cardigan Bay type seat (essentially Ceredigion + the Gwynedd coast up to Porthmadog + Machynlleth and surrounds to keep a road link), for Ceredigion + Gwynedd + Conwy is OK for three seats. This allows my previous proposals for the North-East and Powys to remain largely the same, though I haven't followed it through to Pembs yet (presumably some shadow of South Pembs + Carmarthen would remain) Got any maps? I'd be quite interested to see what you come up with. |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,887
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 12, 2016 23:19:10 GMT
Your scheme of 29+1 makes me nostalgic, because Westminster should have granted Wales 30 seats, fixed for all eternity, so that they could be used unmodified for the Assembly, too (30 plus 30 AMs).
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Post by Penddu on Aug 13, 2016 8:46:26 GMT
Ozzie Swinger...your mid and west Wales seats in the 29&1 scheme are an abomination. Assuming that Monmouthshire comes south, then i would keep it within Powys, by mixing Southern Breconshire with Northern Monmouthshire and trimming off the south west of Breconshire around Ystalafera into Neath. The rest of Dyfed works out as previously proposed with a Ceredigion a Preseli (Phreseli?) Seat, Pembrokeshire, Caerfyrddin and Llanelli seats
I will crunch the numbers when i have some time
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Aug 13, 2016 21:56:30 GMT
Ozzie Swinger...your mid and west Wales seats in the 29&1 scheme are an abomination. Assuming that Monmouthshire comes south, then i would keep it within Powys, by mixing Southern Breconshire with Northern Monmouthshire and trimming off the south west of Breconshire around Ystalafera into Neath. The rest of Dyfed works out as previously proposed with a Ceredigion a Preseli (Phreseli?) Seat, Pembrokeshire, Caerfyrddin and Llanelli seats I will crunch the numbers when i have some time ASV wasn't the one who drew up the dreadful "Ceredigion and Montgomery" boundary, I'm the one culpable for that act. But anyway, I've taken note what you've said and returned to the drawing board. I'm assuming that here you meant to say Montgomeryshire?  Is this along the lines of what you had in mind here? Either way, I think it looks better than my previous attempt.  Whilst I was at it, I figured I'd make an attempt at doing a few more South Wales seats. See what you make of them, it's possible that these suggestions could make a lot of people very unhappy. Next step, how to cover Cardiff, Glamorgan and the Valleys... |
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Post by Penddu on Aug 14, 2016 1:48:33 GMT
Yes...montgomeryshire not monmouthshire....not sure about how much of SW breconshire could go into Neath. Certainly the Ystalafera area, maybe keep the other bits with brecon and north monmouuthshire..
It certainly makes the rest of South Wales a challenge....
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 14, 2016 4:55:53 GMT
Lord Twaddleford I have surpassed your plan (and this is my preferred plan because my North West plan has 1 less than it should have and therefore that seat is Ynys Mon) Only 2 seats (excluding Ynys Mon) are under Wales + Ynys Mon quota and they are 255 and 948 electors below current quota, so here is my plan Wales without Ynys Mon Caernarfonshire & Merionethshire OR Gwynedd 77039 Colwyn & Llandudno OR Conwy 73228 Denbighshire 74024 North Flintshire OR Flint, Prestatyn & Rhyl 75902 South Flintshire OR Mold & Deeside 76678 Wrexham 74968 Mongomeryshire & Radnorshire OR Powys 74394 Ceredigion 73808 Pembrokeshire 71822 Breconshire & Carmarthenshire 76674 Llanelli 73945 Gower 73525 Swansea 72667 Neath 71835 Port Talbot 71364 Bridgend 71783 Ogmore & Rhondda 70776 Aberdare & Pontypridd OR Cynon 71756 Llantrisant 72913 Barry & Penarth OR Vale of Glamorgan 72571 Cardiff West 73544 Cardiff East 70083 Cardiff North 72465 Caerphilly 73421 Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 72180 Blaenau Gwent 76304 Newport 76925 Torfaen 71428 Monmouthshire 74532   |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 14, 2016 8:34:57 GMT
So do you like it or not jamesdowden?
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Whilst there are a few fiddly little amendments that I would make to a few of the North Wales seats (which I won't go into here), I just wanted to say "Thank You" for not putting Abergele and Llansanffraid into the same constituency. 
