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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 22, 2016 18:53:52 GMT
The ONS/Boundary Commissions data dump of the 1 December 2015 electorates is expected to take place on 24 February - this Wednesday.
Initial proposals expected sometime in September/October.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Feb 22, 2016 19:36:11 GMT
The ONS/Boundary Commissions data dump of the 1 December 2015 electorates is expected to take place on 24 February - this Wednesday. Initial proposals expected sometime in September/October. I was just going to mention this myself as I rang them up this morning and they left an answering machine message confirming what David has said. I shall ring them up tomorrow in reply to their message and ask if they can e-mail me with the link once it is published. |
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Post by Robert on Feb 22, 2016 22:18:14 GMT
My latest information is that the data is to be published at 9.30am on Wednesday morning with no prior, embargoed, distribution to the media.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Feb 22, 2016 22:52:04 GMT
My latest information is that the data is to be published at 9.30am on Wednesday morning with no prior, embargoed, distribution to the media. Which poses the question what will the media focus on? Will they cry out "Proved: Conservatives are rigging the next election!" as they publish the amount of electors in wards with the biggest drops (or will they be too focused on that day's PMQ's expecting another scrap between Cameron and Johnson? |
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 23, 2016 0:14:07 GMT
I think the "media" will give this very short shrift... its of more interest to saddoes psephology obsessives like us  |
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Feb 23, 2016 9:04:45 GMT
I think the "media" will give this very short shrift... its of more interest to saddoes psephology obsessives like us And what's wrong with being called a "saddo" I say? If it wasn't for people like us (and I include Professors Rallings and Thrasher in that collection) the political parties wouldn't have a clue where to start when boundary changes happen across the country! Case in point, I have on my computer the only worked out notional calculations for the 2003 Assembly elections when Gwynedd underwent those boundary changes! |
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 24, 2016 9:42:52 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 24, 2016 9:49:53 GMT
Parliamentary electorate: 1st Dec 2015: 44,722,004 600 seats would therefore give a quota of 74,537. Don't work like that. Please check my maths but it works like this: Overall UK electorate 44,722,004, subtract Isle of Wight 105,448, subtract Orkney and Shetland 33,229, subtract na h-Eileanan an Iar 20,887, makes 44,562,440. Then divide by 596 giving electoral quota of 74,769.2 - call it 74,769. Bands are down by 5% giving 71,030.7 so minimum acceptable is 71,031, and up by 5% giving 78,507.7 so maximum acceptable is 78,507. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 24, 2016 9:50:16 GMT
You need to take out Isle of Wight, Orkney etc before calculating the quota. I make it
England (excl IOW) 37,294,494 499
Wales 2,181,841 29
Scotland (excl islands) 3,842,736 51
Northern Ireland 1,243,369 17
TOTAL 44,562,440 596
Quota 74769, Range 71031-78507
Since the last attempt, Scotland and NI have gained a seat at the expense of England and Wales.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Feb 24, 2016 9:52:59 GMT
Ah, but it's not that quite that simple, it's actually 44,722,004 (which by the way is a 1.33% decrease in the electorate) divided by 596 (Orkney, Shetland, Western Isles and Caithness excluded) which comes to 75,037 (rounded up to the nearest whole elector) so the range is as low as 71,285 and as high as 78,789 which means therefore that Ceredigion at 50,432 is precisely 33% too small (and leads me to believe that not only will Powys have to be cannibalised but also Pembrokeshire as well!) |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 24, 2016 9:55:47 GMT
Ah, but it's not that quite that simple, it's actually 44,722,004 (which by the way is a 1.33% decrease in the electorate) divided by 596 (Orkney, Shetland, Western Isles and Caithness excluded) Caithness isn't excluded; Isle of Wight is. |
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Feb 24, 2016 10:06:17 GMT
Sorry, my mistake:
This electorate requirement overrides considerations of local geographical and political boundaries, with only a few exceptions: The island constituencies of Orkney and Shetland and Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) are explicitly preserved.
Two constituencies for the Isle of Wight. (This is an increase from the single constituency that exists at present.)
Constituencies covering more than 12,000 km2 may be lower in electorate than 5 percent below the national average. (Of the current constituencies, this would apply only to the Highland constituency of Ross, Skye and Lochaber.)
No constituency may be larger than 13,000 km2 .
It was the 13,000 square kilometre thing that threw me (but I am correct about the 596 bit)
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 24, 2016 10:12:04 GMT
England breakdown
East Midlands 3275046 44
Eastern 4242266 57
London 5118884 68
North East 1874396 25
North West 5074302 68
South East (excl IOW) 6067475 81
South West 3930770 53
West Midlands 3989320 53
Yorkshire & Humber 3722035 50
East up 1, North East and West Midlands down 1
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 24, 2016 10:24:10 GMT
East of England
Bedfordshire 5.88
Cambridgeshire 7.42
Essex 17.05
Hertfordshire 10.72
Norfolk 8.64
Suffolk 7.04
So looks like Beds 6, Essex 17, Herts 11, Suffolk 7, Cambs+Norfolk 16
Beds and Herts can now keep their existing constituencies (with some ward shuffling) and no longer need a cross border seat.
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Post by lennon on Feb 24, 2016 10:24:58 GMT
Northern Ireland = 1,243,369 = 16.63 seats (so presumably 17)
Despite only dropping 1 seat rather than the 2 previously, significant boundary changes still likely to be required as only Lagan Valley, Newry and Armagh, North Antrim, and South Down are currently in-quota. All others are below with the exception of Upper Bann which is above.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 24, 2016 10:37:39 GMT
When do we get the ward figures?
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Feb 24, 2016 10:38:18 GMT
Doing a quick tally of the maths in Wales, Wales is down to 29 (down one on the last recommendation) with Cardiff South and Penarth safe (96% of electoral quota). Next question, when will the ward electoral data be published?
Update: Having phoned the Office for National Statistics themselves, they explained that the ward data was not available on the website, but will be released by the Boundary Commission for England and Wales. So then I phoned them explaining that I had been forwarded to them by the ONS and they explained that themselves (England) were in the process of getting everything ready for a dump this afternoon and will tweet the fact at @bce2018 (however Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland will be doing separate dumps). There is a #2018boundaryreview hashtag on their Twitter page but at the moment Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland do not seem to have a Twitter account
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Post by lennon on Feb 24, 2016 11:00:08 GMT
Rural Wales is going to get far, far fewer seats than currently. As a quick example, taking the 3 Constituencies of Arfon, Ynys Mon, and Dwyfor Meirionnydd - there are not enough electors in them to even make 2 Constituencies.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2016 11:01:36 GMT
Parliamentary electorate: 1st Dec 2015: 44,722,004 600 seats would therefore give a quota of 74,537. Don't work like that. Please check my maths but it works like this: Overall UK electorate 44,722,004, subtract Isle of Wight 105,448, subtract Orkney and Shetland 33,229, subtract na h-Eileanan an Iar 20,887, makes 44,562,440. Then divide by 596 giving electoral quota of 74,769.2 - call it 74,769. Bands are down by 5% giving 71,030.7 so minimum acceptable is 71,031, and up by 5% giving 78,507.7 so maximum acceptable is 78,507. Preston constituency is 56,110 according to that spreadsheet, 18,659 under the quota. That's a lot of Fulwood to be added.... |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 24, 2016 11:04:27 GMT
I think we may be in error. I was just using the total Parliamentary electorate as given in the table, but looking at the definitions this figure appears to include the 'attainers' (who are on the register but do not turn 18 until some point during the year).
Using just those eligible to vote on 1 December gives 44,440,469 electors in UK, subtract Isle of Wight 104,927, subtract Orkney and Shetland 33,003, subtract na h-Eileanan an Iar 20,780, gives 44,281,759. Divide by 596 gives 74,298.25 so call it 74,298.
The band of acceptability would therefore be 70,584 to 78,013.
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