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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 24, 2016 11:11:36 GMT
In the last review they used the total electorate column, I'm not sure if the ONS have changed the way they display the data in the last five years though.
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Post by lennon on Feb 24, 2016 11:15:41 GMT
Looking at Wales, although Cardiff South and Penarth is currently in quota, by my reckoning Cardiff Unitary Authority can (just) be split into 3 seats without having to cross any Local Authority Boundaries (although each seat would be (my estimate) 77,058 so somewhat close for comfort without knowing the ward numbers)
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2016 11:16:06 GMT
18,188 then  I don't have a laptop at home so can't do my usual number crunching, but I bet the current Lancashire CC review could contain enough ward electorate details to give a rough idea on how the county could look.... |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453 
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Post by iain on Feb 24, 2016 11:53:02 GMT
Size of British electorate: 44,797,782 Size of British electorate (excluding protected constituencies): 44,638,218 UK average quota (excluding four protected constituencies): 74,896 Size of Scottish electorate: 3,896,852 Size of Scottish electorate (excluding protected constituencies): 3,842,736 Scottish average quota (excluding two protected constituencies): 75,348 Band of acceptability (Scotland): 71,580 - 82,883 Number of Scottish constituencies (estimate, including protected): 53 (-6) I'm pretty sure that the band of acceptability doesn't change from region to region. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,055
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 24, 2016 12:02:58 GMT
Size of British electorate: 44,797,782 Size of British electorate (excluding protected constituencies): 44,638,218 UK average quota (excluding four protected constituencies): 74,896 Size of Scottish electorate: 3,896,852 Size of Scottish electorate (excluding protected constituencies): 3,842,736 Scottish average quota (excluding two protected constituencies): 75,348 Band of acceptability (Scotland): 71,580 - 82,883 Number of Scottish constituencies (estimate, including protected): 53 (-6) I'm pretty sure that the band of acceptability doesn't change from region to region. That's correct. The government specifically refused to do that even though it was recommended by the constitutional affairs committee a year ago. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,055
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 24, 2016 12:20:43 GMT
In the last review they used the total electorate column, I'm not sure if the ONS have changed the way they display the data in the last five years though. Just checked and you're correct. The total electorate that was used in 2010 does include attainers so this one will as well. |
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Post by greenhert on Feb 24, 2016 13:24:39 GMT
The substantial modification that will now happen to many seats with a high student electorate is particularly worrying for me....somehow the electorate of Canterbury (according to the document listing the changes in electorate by UK constituency) has dropped by over 10,000 in one year! The fact that Cambridge has reported the second heaviest decrease in electorate (7,399) is less of a problem, though, since Queen Edith's ward can simply be added to it from over-sized South Cambridgeshire.
Interestingly, Durham has seen an overall electorate increase.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453
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Post by iain on Feb 24, 2016 13:28:42 GMT
The substantial modification that will now happen to many seats with a high student electorate is particularly worrying for me....somehow the electorate of Canterbury (according to the document listing the changes in electorate by UK constituency) has dropped by over 10,000 in one year! The fact that Cambridge has reported the second heaviest decrease in electorate (7,399) is less of a problem, though, since Queen Edith's ward can simply be added to it from over-sized South Cambridgeshire. Interestingly, Durham has seen an overall electorate increase. These could lead to some weird notionals - Queen Edith's being added to Cambridge will, I think, make the seat notionally slightly safer Labour, though in reality the boundaries would possibly have resulted in a Lib Dem win! |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453
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Post by iain on Feb 24, 2016 13:33:03 GMT
Cornwall has 393,874 which comes to 5.27 seats, so we should be able to avoid the Devonwall seat this time.
Unfortunately, though, the Forest of Dean is still slightly under quota and Gloucester slightly over, so we'll still get something horrible there.
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Post by greenhert on Feb 24, 2016 13:38:13 GMT
Cornwall has 393,874 which comes to 5.27 seats, so we should be able to avoid the Devonwall seat this time. Just about, yes
I believe this will also result in a reversion to the old constituency layout of Cornwall (St Ives, Camborne & Falmouth, Truro & St Austell, North Cornwall, and Bodmin since including the town of Bodmin will put South East Cornwall's electorate within the allowable range).
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Post by lennon on Feb 24, 2016 13:39:10 GMT
Cornwall has 393,874 which comes to 5.27 seats, so we should be able to avoid the Devonwall seat this time. Unfortunately, though, the Forest of Dean is still slightly under quota and Gloucester slightly over, so we'll still get something horrible there. Not checked your numbers, but assuming your 393,874 is correct then you still need a cross-border seat. 393,874 / 5 = 78,775 which is above the 78,507 upper limit that somebody kindly calculated upthread. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453
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Post by iain on Feb 24, 2016 13:40:58 GMT
Cornwall has 393,874 which comes to 5.27 seats, so we should be able to avoid the Devonwall seat this time. Unfortunately, though, the Forest of Dean is still slightly under quota and Gloucester slightly over, so we'll still get something horrible there. Not checked your numbers, but assuming your 393,874 is correct then you still need a cross-border seat. 393,874 / 5 = 78,775 which is above the 78,507 upper limit that somebody kindly calculated upthread. Yes think you're right, they'll have to take off a small area. |
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Post by greenhert on Feb 24, 2016 13:50:24 GMT
Not checked your numbers, but assuming your 393,874 is correct then you still need a cross-border seat. 393,874 / 5 = 78,775 which is above the 78,507 upper limit that somebody kindly calculated upthread. Yes think you're right, they'll have to take off a small area. Only one ward of Cornwall at most, though, probably the rural villages closest to Bideford. |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Feb 24, 2016 13:51:26 GMT
Of the 650 current constituencies, 199 (plus the four special cases) will NOT be changed in any shape or form (as they match the requirements already). Those 203 constituencies split as follows:
Conservatives 134
Labour 52
Liberal Democrats 1
Scottish National Party 12
Democratic Unionist 2
Social Democratic and Labour Party 2
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453
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Post by iain on Feb 24, 2016 13:52:06 GMT
Of the 650 current constituencies, 199 (plus the four special cases) will NOT be changed in any shape or form (as they match the requirements already). Those 203 constituencies split as follows: Conservatives 134 Labour 52 Liberal Democrats 1 Scottish National Party 12 Democratic Unionist 2 Social Democratic and Labour Party 2 They may still be split due to knock on effects. |
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Post by lennon on Feb 24, 2016 13:52:59 GMT
Not checked your numbers, but assuming your 393,874 is correct then you still need a cross-border seat. 393,874 / 5 = 78,775 which is above the 78,507 upper limit that somebody kindly calculated upthread. Yes think you're right, they'll have to take off a small area. Presumably either you add Bude to Bideford, or you say 'Saltash is functionally a Plymouth suburb anyway' and put them together to have a cross Tamar seat where there is actually a decent bridge / connection. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 24, 2016 13:54:15 GMT
Of the 650 current constituencies, 199 (plus the four special cases) will NOT be changed in any shape or form (as they match the requirements already). Those 203 constituencies split as follows: Rubbish. While there will be a few constituencies left unchanged, the vast majority will have to change even if they are within the quota as a knock-on effect of fixing neighbouring constituencies. |
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Post by lennon on Feb 24, 2016 14:09:16 GMT
Whilst it might have to change anyway due to requirements of surrounding Borough's, the 5 Constituencies currently in Lambeth and Southwark are in aggregate exactly at quota (5.01 seats by my calculation). Bermondsey & Old Southwark and Camberwell and Peckham are over-sized, and the other 3 are undersized. Hopefully means that we avoid the Vauxhall-Battersea grouping suggested previously.
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Post by lennon on Feb 24, 2016 14:55:40 GMT
Why are there disparities in electorate data for UK parliamentary constituencies and local authority areas covering the same area? If you are using the ONS Data Sheets then it is due to the different electorates. The Local Authority Data (Table 1) includes all 'Local' Electors, whereas the Parliamentary Data (Table 2) uses Parliamentary Electors. Clearly this means that the divergence is largest in places such as London, with a high number of EU Citizens who can vote in the Local elections, but not for Parliamentary elections. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 24, 2016 15:11:35 GMT
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