J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,840 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 24, 2016 16:34:01 GMT
Of the 650 current constituencies, 199 (plus the four special cases) will NOT be changed in any shape or form (as they match the requirements already). Those 203 constituencies split as follows: It's impossible to say that. There will be plenty of cases where two ideal constituencies have half a constituency in the space between them. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,840
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 24, 2016 16:43:19 GMT
Hmmm. 5+1/2 seats for Sheffield. (405,000 / 74,700). The ideal model would be to keep what we've got. Perfect.
Fetches popcorn and waits BC proposals to have six cross-border seats.
Edit: Ah. 381,000 Parliamentary electorate. Amazed that the local electorate is so different.
381,000/74,300 = 5.12. Could get exactly 5.0 seats at 76200 which is within quota, or slice off Stocksbridge Town and 5 x 74,200.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453
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Post by iain on Feb 24, 2016 16:55:26 GMT
Hmmm. 5+1/2 seats for Sheffield. (405,000 / 74,700). The ideal model would be to keep what we've got. Perfect. Fetches popcorn and waits BC proposals to have six cross-border seats. Edit: Ah. 381,000 Parliamentary electorate. Amazed that the local electorate is so different. 381,000/74,300 = 5.12. Could get exactly 5.0 seats at 76200 which is within quota, or slice off Stocksbridge Town and 5 x 74,200. Will need ward splitting though. In North Yorks Scarborough & Whitby has fallen slightly under-quota, but this should be easy enough to rectify. And North Yorkshire won't overspill. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,840
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 24, 2016 16:59:50 GMT
Hmmm. 5+1/2 seats for Sheffield. (405,000 / 74,700). The ideal model would be to keep what we've got. Perfect. Fetches popcorn and waits BC proposals to have six cross-border seats. Edit: Ah. 381,000 Parliamentary electorate. Amazed that the local electorate is so different. 381,000/74,300 = 5.12. Could get exactly 5.0 seats at 76200 which is within quota, or slice off Stocksbridge Town and 5 x 74,200. Will need ward splitting though. Easy enough to do as per almost all responses to the zombie review. Sheffield's wards are so large that they include multiple communities, so can be easily split up into consistant subunits. I've set aside the weekend to do some number crunching. Looking at the figures in more details I'm doubly amazed that the parliamentary electorate in every ward is very tightly close to the city average of 14,000, but we've just had to have a local review because Central Ward has a local electorate of 26,000. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453
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Post by iain on Feb 24, 2016 17:20:05 GMT
These are the borough figures for West and South Yorks:
Bradford - 326,783 (4.37)
Leeds - 446,680 (5.97)
Calderdale - 142,864 (1.91)
Kirklees - 295,405 (3.95)
Wakefield - 237,299 (3.17)
Barnsley - 152,153 (2.03)
Doncaster - 211,267 (2.83)
Rotherham - 207,680 (2.78)
Sheffield - 381,430 (5.10)
So 5 of 9 boroughs could theoretically stand alone (though Calderdale would have to be very exact) but they can't all, as others need to share.
I would probably try (though another way might make more sense upon closer inspection) to take Leeds and Sheffield individually, then have a group of three (B, C, K) and one of four (B, D, R, W).
In the last review all three Doncaster seats were unchanged. Now all are below quota.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 24, 2016 17:21:42 GMT
East of England Bedfordshire 5.88 Cambridgeshire 7.42 Essex 17.05 Hertfordshire 10.72 Norfolk 8.64 Suffolk 7.04 So looks like Beds 6, Essex 17, Herts 11, Suffolk 7, Cambs+Norfolk 16 Beds and Herts can now keep their existing constituencies (with some ward shuffling) and no longer need a cross border seat. An early attempt with minimal changes  Welwyn Hatfield is a little undersized so picks up Northaw & Cuffley to become coterminous with the LA - electorate 73,296 Broxbourne gains Hertford Heath, Stanstead Abbots and Great Amwell - electorate 72,664 Hertford & Stortford is pushed below quota by losing the above wards so gains Hertford Rural South - electorate 72,620 NE Hertfordshire likewise pushed below by loss of that ward so has to gain Cadwell (Datchworth would be better but this creates insurmountable problems for Stevenage) electorate 72,533 Stevenage gains Chesfield - electorate 72,564 Hitchin & Harpenden is undersized from loss of Cadwell and Chesfield so gains Ashridge & Watling from Dacorum - electorate 72,932 St Albans loses Bedmond (which has been split) and instead takes the Three Rivers ward of Leavesden - electorate 72,210 Hemel Hempstead takes GAde Valley and Abbots Langley & Bedmond while losing Ashridge and Watling - electorate 74,363 SW Herts loses South Oxhey (inclusing those parts now in other wards) electorate 70,309 * Watford loses the Three Rivers wards North of the town and gains South Oxhey - electorate 72,878 Hertsmere gains Carpenders PArk - electorate 74,831 * SW Herts here is just below quota so we would have to split a ward to resolve that. The best bet would be to take the DAF pollng district from Gade Valley (Hunton Bridge & Langleybury) which from memory contains about 1000 voters Not an ideal solution at all but its difficult with the average being somewhat close to the lower limit. Ward boundary changes in Three Rivers have caused particular problems. I might attempt a complete redrawing |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Feb 24, 2016 17:44:47 GMT
Parliamentary electorate: 1st Dec 2015: 44,722,004 600 seats would therefore give a quota of 74,537. Don't work like that. Please check my maths but it works like this: Overall UK electorate 44,722,004, subtract Isle of Wight 105,448, subtract Orkney and Shetland 33,229, subtract na h-Eileanan an Iar 20,887, makes 44,562,440. Then divide by 596 giving electoral quota of 74,769.2 - call it 74,769. Bands are down by 5% giving 71,030.7 so minimum acceptable is 71,031, and up by 5% giving 78,507.7 so maximum acceptable is 78,507. Those are the figures the BCE give too. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Feb 24, 2016 18:05:19 GMT
These are the borough figures for West and South Yorks: Bradford - 326,783 (4.37) Leeds - 446,680 (5.97) Calderdale - 142,864 (1.91) Kirklees - 295,405 (3.95) Wakefield - 237,299 (3.17) Barnsley - 152,153 (2.03) Doncaster - 211,267 (2.83) Rotherham - 207,680 (2.78) Sheffield - 381,430 (5.10) So 5 of 9 boroughs could theoretically stand alone (though Calderdale would have to be very exact) but they can't all, as others need to share. I would probably try (though another way might make more sense upon closer inspection) to take Leeds and Sheffield individually, then have a group of three (B, C, K) and one of four (B, D, R, W). In the last review all three Doncaster seats were unchanged. Now all are below quota. The BCE's figure for Barnsley is 167,715 (2.24), and for Leeds it is 515,304 (6.89). (I've started a separate thread for Y&tH.) |
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Post by lennon on Feb 24, 2016 18:06:36 GMT
OK - So looking at the London. The following Boroughs are in quota on their own:
Bromley - 3 seats
Croydon - 3 seats (just)
Hackney - 2 seats
Kensington and Chelsea = 1 seat
Tower Hamlets - 2 seats
Waltham Forest - 2 seats
Looking at the North-East segment of London, it makes sense to keep Hackney and Tower Hamlets unchanged - they are currently 2 seats each and every seat is in quota. Given that Waltham Forest has a quota of exactly 2 seats it makes sense to remove its current pairing with Redbridge and just split the Borough somewhere appropriately.
All good so far. However, this then leaves the 4 boroughs of Havering (2.37 seats), Barking and Dagenham (1.49 seats), Redbridge (2.38 seats), and Newham (2.27 seats) isolated, but requiring 8.5 seats between them.
Assuming that you can't go outside the Regional Boundaries (and eg add some of Thurrock to Rainham), you are either left having to have a cross-Thames seat with Greenwich, or shuffle Hackney/Tower Hamlets/Waltham Forest by half a seat and scrap what looks like some very natural splits.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453
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Post by iain on Feb 24, 2016 18:11:17 GMT
These are the borough figures for West and South Yorks: Bradford - 326,783 (4.37) Leeds - 446,680 (5.97) Calderdale - 142,864 (1.91) Kirklees - 295,405 (3.95) Wakefield - 237,299 (3.17) Barnsley - 152,153 (2.03) Doncaster - 211,267 (2.83) Rotherham - 207,680 (2.78) Sheffield - 381,430 (5.10) So 5 of 9 boroughs could theoretically stand alone (though Calderdale would have to be very exact) but they can't all, as others need to share. I would probably try (though another way might make more sense upon closer inspection) to take Leeds and Sheffield individually, then have a group of three (B, C, K) and one of four (B, D, R, W). In the last review all three Doncaster seats were unchanged. Now all are below quota. The BCE's figure for Barnsley is 167,715 (2.24), and for Leeds it is 515,304 (6.89). (I've started a separate thread for Y&tH.) I've just checked my Barnsley figure and I got the same as before. How did you arrive at yours? Barnsley Central (60,767) + Barnsley East (65,344) + (from P&S) Dodworth (7,917) + Penistone Easr (8,963) + Penistone West (9,162) = 152,153 EDIT: forgot about the Dearne wards |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Feb 24, 2016 18:12:35 GMT
The BCE's figure for Barnsley is 167,715 (2.24), and for Leeds it is 515,304 (6.89). (I've started a separate thread for Y&tH.) I've just checked my Barnsley figure and I got the same. How did you arrive at yours? Barnsley Central (60,767) + Barnsley East (65,344) + (from P&S) Dodworth (7,917) + Penistone Easr (8,963) + Penistone West (9,162) = 152,153 The two Dearne wards are in Wentworth & Dearne. (I was using the BCE's spreadsheet, which has electorates and entitlements for all English local authorities.) |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,840
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 24, 2016 18:54:57 GMT
So 5 of 9 boroughs could theoretically stand alone (though Calderdale would have to be very exact) but they can't all, as others need to share. I would probably try (though another way might make more sense upon closer inspection) to take Leeds and Sheffield individually, then have a group of three (B, C, K) and one of four (B, D, R, W). Something like this:  |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2016 19:43:46 GMT
I think we may be in error. I was just using the total Parliamentary electorate as given in the table, but looking at the definitions this figure appears to include the 'attainers' (who are on the register but do not turn 18 until some point during the year). Using just those eligible to vote on 1 December gives 44,440,469 electors in UK, subtract Isle of Wight 104,927, subtract Orkney and Shetland 33,003, subtract na h-Eileanan an Iar 20,780, gives 44,281,759. Divide by 596 gives 74,298.25 so call it 74,298. The band of acceptability would therefore be 70,584 to 78,013. The zombie review Preston clocks in at 72,136. |
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Post by afleitch on Feb 24, 2016 19:53:55 GMT
So 5 of 9 boroughs could theoretically stand alone (though Calderdale would have to be very exact) but they can't all, as others need to share. I would probably try (though another way might make more sense upon closer inspection) to take Leeds and Sheffield individually, then have a group of three (B, C, K) and one of four (B, D, R, W). Something like this: Bring back Boothferry! |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 24, 2016 20:38:55 GMT
The zombie review Preston clocks in at 72,136. One of the pleasing footnotes in the BCE press release was one confirming the zombie status of the 2011-13 proceedings: "The last review of constituencies reported in 2006. The BCE began a review under the new legislation in 2011 that Parliament cancelled in 2013. The proposals from that review have no status for the current review and the BCE will not be taking any account of them." (my emphasis) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2016 20:59:07 GMT
The zombie review Preston clocks in at 72,136. One of the pleasing footnotes in the BCE press release was one confirming the zombie status of the 2011-13 proceedings: "The last review of constituencies reported in 2006. The BCE began a review under the new legislation in 2011 that Parliament cancelled in 2013. The proposals from that review have no status for the current review and the BCE will not be taking any account of them." (my emphasis) That is interesting. |
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Post by John Chanin on Feb 25, 2016 1:59:18 GMT
One of the pleasing footnotes in the BCE press release was one confirming the zombie status of the 2011-13 proceedings: "The last review of constituencies reported in 2006. The BCE began a review under the new legislation in 2011 that Parliament cancelled in 2013. The proposals from that review have no status for the current review and the BCE will not be taking any account of them." (my emphasis) That is interesting. It is also bullshit. If the number of seats is the same, they are bound to reach similar conclusions to those they reached last time. But it does help in complaining about the proposals when they appear. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,055
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 25, 2016 11:41:16 GMT
It is also bullshit. If the number of seats is the same, they are bound to reach similar conclusions to those they reached last time. But it does help in complaining about the proposals when they appear. Not really. If they split wards this time then it will change quite a lot plus the fall in electorate in some places around the country will cause quite major knock-on changes. More to the point, using the argument 'it was mentioned in the zombie review' just won't wash will it as justification which is the point of what they're saying. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2016 12:01:48 GMT
From Lewis Baston in the Times  |
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Post by swindonlad on Feb 25, 2016 14:15:09 GMT
is there any detail behind this, just wondered where the 1 seat gain for Labour in the SW will be
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