Ogmore

[maxque]

Apr 24, 2016 20:08:43 GMT @pjones said:

Apr 24, 2016 19:35:20 GMT maxque said:

To be honest, "being full" is codeword for "I don't want people with a wierd skin colour near me".

I think what people often mean by 'being full' is that immigration is proceeding at a rate that makes cultural assimilation difficult and encourages harmful cultural diversity.

I don't disagree that many anti-immigration people believe that, but, sadly, the people I know using that word are usually in the "0 immigration and deportation of all foreigners" mindset.

Even respectable hard right/anti-immigration parties tend to attract that kind of voters, even if they don't like talking about it.

[Deleted]

Apr 24, 2016 20:08:43 GMT @pjones said:

Apr 24, 2016 19:35:20 GMT maxque said:

To be honest, "being full" is codeword for "I don't want people with a wierd skin colour near me".

I think what people often mean by 'being full' is that immigration is proceeding at a rate that makes cultural assimilation difficult and encourages harmful cultural diversity.

I don't think that at all. The 'full' slogan is just about numbers, the effects on services, green spaces and so on. People concerned about cultural cohesion might say something like: 'we are being overrun'

[Deleted]

Apr 24, 2016 20:12:33 GMT maxque said:

Apr 24, 2016 20:08:43 GMT @pjones said:

I think what people often mean by 'being full' is that immigration is proceeding at a rate that makes cultural assimilation difficult and encourages harmful cultural diversity.

I don't disagree that many anti-immigration people believe that, but, sadly, the people I know using that word are usually in the "0 immigration and deportation of all foreigners" mindset.

Even respectable hard right/anti-immigration parties tend to attract that kind of voters, even if they don't like talking about it.

I don't personally know anyone in that mindset.

A re your friends 'imaginary'?

[maxque]

Apr 24, 2016 21:37:19 GMT @szczecinianin said:

Apr 24, 2016 20:12:33 GMT maxque said:

I don't disagree that many anti-immigration people believe that, but, sadly, the people I know using that word are usually in the "0 immigration and deportation of all foreigners" mindset.

Even respectable hard right/anti-immigration parties tend to attract that kind of voters, even if they don't like talking about it.

I don't personally know anyone in that mindset.

A re your friends 'imaginary'?

Sadly, not friends, but family.

[Deleted]

Apr 24, 2016 23:13:35 GMT maxque said:

Apr 24, 2016 21:37:19 GMT @szczecinianin said:

I don't personally know anyone in that mindset.

A re your friends 'imaginary'?

Sadly, not friends, but family.

Does your family really demand 'the deportation of all foreigners'? They must be very odd people indeed. Even the BNP wouldn't demand that.

[AdminSTB]

A reminder that this is the thread for discussing the Ogmore by-election. It seems to have swerved wildly off-topic - consider starting a new thread in General UK Politics.

[Penddu]

In an attempt to bring conversation back on topic, Labour are cleraly going to win - the only two questions to ask are by how much, and who will be in second place.

Despite UKIP claiming this is their natural seat, I dont see it that way at all. Yes this is undoubtedly a working class seat, but with very few immigrants - whether asian, west indian or east European - it is not fertile territory for them. It is a typical Welsh Valley seat with lots of run down housing estates - eg Caerau, Sarn, Bettws; but a few more affluent middle class hosuing developments - eg around Bryncethin. Plaid has a few pockets of strength in Ogmore Vale and Maesteg West, but these are patchy. The LDs have done fairly well here in the past, but not this time round.

I predict Labour on 50%, UKIP, Plaid and Conservatives (probably in that order) all around 15%, LD on 5%

[Deleted]

We  need a poll on who will come second.

[Deleted]

If you are predicting a second place for UKIP, then it is 'fertile territory' for them, Penddu. An absence of immigrants doesn't necessarily reduce UKIP's chances. The less cosmopolitan the seat, the higher the UKIP vote, generally speaking.

[iain]

Apr 25, 2016 15:24:33 GMT @szczecinianin said:

If you are predicting a second place for UKIP, then it is 'fertile territory' for them, Penddu.

Um what?
So I suppose that Bootle and South West Wiltshire are both great ground for UKIP too ...

[markgoodair]

I am predicting a Labour win with a majority of 8493.

[Deleted]

Apr 25, 2016 16:14:52 GMT iain said:

Apr 25, 2016 15:24:33 GMT @szczecinianin said:

If you are predicting a second place for UKIP, then it is 'fertile territory' for them, Penddu.

Um what?
So I suppose that Bootle and South West Wiltshire are both great ground for UKIP too ...

Runneymede and Weybridge, where Labour came 2nd is great ground for that party.

[Lord Twaddleford]

Apr 25, 2016 17:00:50 GMT markgoodair said:

I am predicting a Labour win with a majority of 8493.

That's rather precise wouldn't you say?

[Deleted]

Apr 25, 2016 16:14:52 GMT iain said:

Apr 25, 2016 15:24:33 GMT @szczecinianin said:

If you are predicting a second place for UKIP, then it is 'fertile territory' for them, Penddu.

Um what?
So I suppose that Bootle and South West Wiltshire are both great ground for UKIP too ...

UKIP don't win a great many seats in General Elections. These were two of the 100+ seats where they came second. So, yes.

[Deleted]

Apr 25, 2016 17:00:50 GMT markgoodair said:

I am predicting a Labour win with a majority of 8493.

+- 5%

[East Anglian Lefty]

Apr 25, 2016 20:27:22 GMT @szczecinianin said:

Apr 25, 2016 16:14:52 GMT iain said:

Um what?
So I suppose that Bootle and South West Wiltshire are both great ground for UKIP too ...

UKIP don't win a great many seats in General Elections. These were two of the 100+ seats where they came second. So, yes.

But that's more about how other parties do than the untapped UKIP potential. UKIP came third in Thurrock, but it's still clearly their best prospect for a gain. Raw vote share (and to a certain extent demographics, though UKIP support is fairly socially uniform) are the key things to look at.

[Penddu]

Apr 25, 2016 15:24:33 GMT @szczecinianin said:

If you are predicting a second place for UKIP, then it is 'fertile territory' for them, Penddu. An absence of immigrants doesn't necessarily reduce UKIP's chances. The less cosmopolitan the seat, the higher the UKIP vote, generally speaking.

If you consider a 15% vote prediction fertile territory then you are setting your sights very low...and you are still likely to be disappointed

[Deleted]

Apr 26, 2016 8:49:17 GMT Penddu said:

Apr 25, 2016 15:24:33 GMT @szczecinianin said:

If you are predicting a second place for UKIP, then it is 'fertile territory' for them, Penddu. An absence of immigrants doesn't necessarily reduce UKIP's chances. The less cosmopolitan the seat, the higher the UKIP vote, generally speaking.

If you consider a 15% vote prediction fertile territory then you are setting your sights very low...and you are still likely to be disappointed

Actually winning the constituency is hardly a realistic possibility this time round. Coming a good second might make it a good future prospect.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Apr 26, 2016 10:59:31 GMT @szczecinianin said:

Apr 26, 2016 8:49:17 GMT Penddu said:

If you consider a 15% vote prediction fertile territory then you are setting your sights very low...and you are still likely to be disappointed

Actually winning the constituency is hardly a realistic possibility this time round. Coming a good second might make it a good future prospect.

Only if there's a reasonable prospect of flipping enough voters to close the gap. And this is where demographics and electoral history come into play - the Labour vote in Ogmore is going to be substantially stickier than in most UK constituencies.

[Sibboleth]

Its the kind of place where people unironically say 'the Party'