By-elections - December 10th

[Tony Otim]

Dec 11, 2015 9:31:46 GMT markgoodair said:

Dec 11, 2015 9:12:02 GMT Tony Otim said:

Swing about 7% Labour to SNP, which considering the area and that South Lanarkshire results were generally quite good for Labour in 2012 is much lower than might be expected.

But still not looking good for Labour in May.

Yes, but maybe not as disastrous as it was looking a few months ago. 2012 was generally a better year for Labour than 2011, so 7% on 2012 is probably less on 2011% figures. Obviously its only 1 result, but the general trend is that the size of the swings to SNP is coming down a bit. I think we're still looking at SNP gaining seats, but it may not be a complete wipe out for Labour.

Maybe it's optimism on my part, but I think there is a little bit of air escaping from the SNP bubble, even if its not bursting.

[marksenior]

The swing from Labour to SNP in all by elections since May is 13.1% ( all from 2012 ) so 7% is rather lower

[Old Fashioned Leftie]

Kinson South results from Council website

Baxter, Beryl Labour Party 471
Darnton, Geoffrey Green Party 54
Davenport, Philip Bournemouth Independent Alliance 168
Decent, Norman David Conservative Party Candidate 520
Dixon, Kevin Patria 8
Dunn, Phil, Liberal Democrats 60
Farr, Duane William UK Independence Party (UKIP) 313
Gregory-May, Carla Christina Rachel Green Party 63
Marley, Roger George Conservative Party Candidate 509
Pardy, Gill Liberal Democrats 61
Semple, Mel Labour Party 371
West, Roger Alexander Bournemouth Independent Alliance 116

[Davıd Boothroyd]

On averages:

C 33.9
Lab 27.7
UKIP 20.6
BIA 9.4
L Dem 4.0
GP 3.9
Patria 0.5

[lennon]

Dec 11, 2015 10:09:08 GMT Old Fashioned Leftie said:

Kinson South results from Council website


Dixon, Kevin Patria 8

How unusual is getting less than 10 votes - given the requirement for 10 nominees?

[The Bishop]

Dec 11, 2015 10:14:15 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

On averages:

C 33.9
Lab 27.7
UKIP 20.6
BIA 9.4
L Dem 4.0
GP 3.9
Patria 0.5

So where does the previously cited Green claim of "up 3% to 8%" come from?

[Robert Waller]

Well, it was an election for two candidates. They've probably doubled and forgotten to halve!

[Pete Whitehead]

They can be worse than the Lib Dems the way they try to spin numbers. Or maybe the famously innumerate Natalie Bennett came up with the number

[Robert Waller]

It isn't very impressive that NE Derbyshire council cannot put up two straight fight byelection results by noon the next day.
Anyone would think that 'elections and democracy' were a low priority.

[maxque]

Dec 11, 2015 12:03:08 GMT Robert Waller said:

It isn't very impressive that NE Derbyshire council cannot put up two straight fight byelection results by noon the next day.
Anyone would think that 'elections and democracy' were a low priority.

They are active on Twitter, someone with an account (so, not me) should ask them results?

[Robert Waller]

Or get on the old-fashioned phone ...

[lennon]

Dec 11, 2015 12:12:33 GMT maxque said:

Dec 11, 2015 12:03:08 GMT Robert Waller said:

It isn't very impressive that NE Derbyshire council cannot put up two straight fight byelection results by noon the next day.
Anyone would think that 'elections and democracy' were a low priority.

They are active on Twitter, someone with an account (so, not me) should ask them results?

Just asked them on Twitter... Will let you know when (if) I get an answer

[maxque]

Dec 11, 2015 12:19:25 GMT Robert Waller said:

Or get on the old-fashioned phone ...

These days, you're lucky to talk to someone, not an answering machine or some infuriating system where you press on numbers and listen to recorded messages until you give up.

[Tony Otim]

Dec 11, 2015 10:50:39 GMT The Bishop said:

Dec 11, 2015 10:14:15 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

On averages:

C 33.9
Lab 27.7
UKIP 20.6
BIA 9.4
L Dem 4.0
GP 3.9
Patria 0.5

So where does the previously cited Green claim of "up 3% to 8%" come from?

Considering the Green vote last time was 9.7% on top vote or 10.2% on average those figures were always dubious...

[Pete Whitehead]

The Coal Aston result must have been released as ME has assigned faults on the Prediction thread

[maxque]

Dec 11, 2015 12:33:12 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

The Coal Aston result must have been released as ME has assigned faults on the Prediction thread

Twitted by the Labour candidate himself last night.

[Pete Whitehead]

ah hadn't spoted the result posted on here then

[La Fontaine]

Dec 11, 2015 10:09:08 GMT Old Fashioned Leftie said:

Kinson South results from Council website

Baxter, Beryl Labour Party 471
Darnton, Geoffrey Green Party 54
Davenport, Philip Bournemouth Independent Alliance 168
Decent, Norman David Conservative Party Candidate 520
Dixon, Kevin Patria 8
Dunn, Phil, Liberal Democrats 60
Farr, Duane William UK Independence Party (UKIP) 313
Gregory-May, Carla Christina Rachel Green Party 63
Marley, Roger George Conservative Party Candidate 509
Pardy, Gill Liberal Democrats 61
Semple, Mel Labour Party 371
West, Roger Alexander Bournemouth Independent Alliance 116

Beryl Baxter is a very good candidate and top of the list, which maybe explains her  vote being 100 more than the other Labour candidate..

[Robert Waller]

I've tried NE Derbyshire and this is what I got ...

Thanks for getting in touch with the Electoral Services team.

We will respond to your query as quickly as we can, if your enquiry is urgent please call us on the number shown below to make sure we can help you as quickly as possible.

Needless to say, there was no number below.

[gwynthegriff]

Dec 11, 2015 10:43:19 GMT lennon said:

Dec 11, 2015 10:09:08 GMT Old Fashioned Leftie said:

Kinson South results from Council website


Dixon, Kevin Patria 8

How unusual is getting less than 10 votes - given the requirement for 10 nominees?

Not uncommon.