Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2015 11:07:33 GMT
Only two go through to Round 2 at Presidential level. If it's Le Pen v another right winger, another right winger wins. If it's Le Pen vs a left winger, things get more interesting. Not what the polls have shown. There are significant differences between various candidates on both left and right. Juppé will win big, but Valls actually polls better than Sarkozy. You shouldn't underestimate how hated Sarkozy is on the left. Turnout in the second round would be quite low if he was the candidate, many left wingers wouldn't care if it was Sarkozy or Le Pen. The candidate Le Pen has matched and even beaten in polls is Hollande, but this can not be translated to Valls or other leftists. Both Sarkozy and Hollande are bad candidates, but their egos might well make them run anyway. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Dec 14, 2015 11:19:57 GMT
Only two go through to Round 2 at Presidential level. If it's Le Pen v another right winger, another right winger wins. If it's Le Pen vs a left winger, things get more interesting. Not what the polls have shown. There are significant differences between various candidates on both left and right. Juppé will win big, but Valls actually polls better than Sarkozy. You shouldn't underestimate how hated Sarkozy is on the left. Turnout in the second round would be quite low if he was the candidate, many left wingers wouldn't care if it was Sarkozy or Le Pen. The candidate Le Pen has matched and even beaten in polls is Hollande, but this can not be translated to Valls or other leftists. Both Sarkozy and Hollande are bad candidates, but their egos might well make them run anyway. If Marine Le Pen can't do better than 58-42 against a very polarizing and right-wing Xavier Bertrand in one of the best FN areas of France, she can't win the Presidential (which will includes places where FN was under 20%). |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 14, 2015 11:25:45 GMT
Not what the polls have shown. There are significant differences between various candidates on both left and right. Juppé will win big, but Valls actually polls better than Sarkozy. You shouldn't underestimate how hated Sarkozy is on the left. Turnout in the second round would be quite low if he was the candidate, many left wingers wouldn't care if it was Sarkozy or Le Pen. The candidate Le Pen has matched and even beaten in polls is Hollande, but this can not be translated to Valls or other leftists. Both Sarkozy and Hollande are bad candidates, but their egos might well make them run anyway. If Marine Le Pen can't do better than 58-42 against a very polarizing and right-wing Xavier Bertrand in one of the best FN areas of France, she can't win the Presidential (which will includes places where FN was under 20%). Indeed, Bertrand, Wauquiez and Estrosi were among the most hated in the SarkozyEra, as far as I remember. |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Dec 14, 2015 11:29:03 GMT
The candidate Le Pen has matched and even beaten in polls is Hollande, but this can not be translated to Valls or other leftists. Both Sarkozy and Hollande are bad candidates, but their egos might well make them run anyway. Is there precedent for sitting presidents to stand down after one term to give some else a go? I don't see it happening... |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 14, 2015 11:49:40 GMT
2012 President:  2014 EuropeanParliament:  2015 Regional, Parties:  2015 Regional, PartyFamilies:  DEVIATION: 2012:  2014:  2015, Parties:  2015, PartyFamilies:  |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 14, 2015 11:53:39 GMT
The candidate Le Pen has matched and even beaten in polls is Hollande, but this can not be translated to Valls or other leftists. Both Sarkozy and Hollande are bad candidates, but their egos might well make them run anyway. Is there precedent for sitting presidents to stand down after one term to give some else a go? I don't see it happening... Pompidou died in his first time - but Hollande could resign as another president... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2015 12:24:03 GMT
The candidate Le Pen has matched and even beaten in polls is Hollande, but this can not be translated to Valls or other leftists. Both Sarkozy and Hollande are bad candidates, but their egos might well make them run anyway. Is there precedent for sitting presidents to stand down after one term to give some else a go? I don't see it happening... Neither do I, but it is unfortunate for PS and the French left. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Dec 14, 2015 12:27:26 GMT
If Marine Le Pen can't do better than 58-42 against a very polarizing and right-wing Xavier Bertrand in one of the best FN areas of France, she can't win the Presidential (which will includes places where FN was under 20%). Indeed, Bertrand, Wauquiez and Estrosi were among the most hated in the SarkozyEra, as far as I remember. Wierdly, Estrosi spent the last week to try to convince left-wingers than he will respect them and create a consultative council to hear the opinion on the left since it's not represented on the Council. It was a very wierd thing to read. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2015 12:56:37 GMT
Not what the polls have shown. There are significant differences between various candidates on both left and right. Juppé will win big, but Valls actually polls better than Sarkozy. You shouldn't underestimate how hated Sarkozy is on the left. Turnout in the second round would be quite low if he was the candidate, many left wingers wouldn't care if it was Sarkozy or Le Pen. The candidate Le Pen has matched and even beaten in polls is Hollande, but this can not be translated to Valls or other leftists. Both Sarkozy and Hollande are bad candidates, but their egos might well make them run anyway. If Marine Le Pen can't do better than 58-42 against a very polarizing and right-wing Xavier Bertrand in one of the best FN areas of France, she can't win the Presidential (which will includes places where FN was under 20%). My main point here is that the idea that you can set odds based on a generic right winger and generic left winger is flawed - the actual candidates matter a lot. Secondly, I trust polls for the actual presidential race more than using the regional elections as some kind of "meta-poll" for a presidential election with different issues and a different dynamic. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 14, 2015 13:06:12 GMT
A comparison of FN 2010 and 2015 (published by L'Express):  |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2015 13:22:20 GMT
Regarding the actual presidential election there are three major jokers:
1) Continued Maghrebi terrorism seems likely. The Paris Attacks gave Hollande a popularity boost, but if it happens again voters would almost certainly blame him.
2) The EU Commission estimates 3 mio. refugees will arrive in Europe in 2016. Since the (main) Balkan route is about to be closed (by border fences in Bulgaria and Macedonia) the flow will increasingly go Albania-Italy and directly to Sicily/Southern Italy (the coastal route to Croatia is tricky and the Croats will likely block it). When the refugees go via Italy France will receive far more - especially as conditions in Germany are deteriorating due to the pressure). This will in itself help FN.
If there is a) terrorism connected to refugees b) particularly nasty high profile crimes (say, something like the Afghan refugee who raped a 17 year old Finnish girl and burnt her alive) public opinion would move towards FN.
3) The British EU referendum will take place before the election and it might very well end in Brexit, which combined with an uncontrollable refugee crisis could give the impression that the EU was about to collapse, which would hurt the establishment parties.
I see 2016-17 as a potentially very turbulent and crisis filled period and this could cause major shifts in the electorate.
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Post by bolbridge on Dec 14, 2015 15:25:51 GMT
Had they stood in those two regions, it would probably push up the PS vote share to 33% or so, unless their voters switched tactically behind the Right. In my view, it was foolish of them to stand down, as the Left forfeit all their representatives in the two Regions for 6 years, paradoxically boosting FN representation, and making them sole opposition to the Right. My understanding (and I could be wrong) was that the winner gets a huge boost in seats terms (+50% of the total or something ridiculous) so they have deprived themselves of seats but probably also the FN |
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 14, 2015 15:40:23 GMT
I like to think of a franco parallel universe where the forum pollster cygne arcadien swaps anecdotes with Fauteil critique and le Rey Cramoisil . |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 14, 2015 15:48:19 GMT
I like to think of a franco parallel universe where the forum pollster cygne arcadien swaps anecdotes with Fauteil critique and le Rey Cramoisil . Or in the Chutes des Anges partei? |
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 14, 2015 15:53:52 GMT
I like to think of a franco parallel universe where the forum pollster cygne arcadien swaps anecdotes with Fauteil critique and le Rey Cramoisil . Or in the Chutes des Anges partei? Time for some faits inutiles methinks... |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 14, 2015 16:07:13 GMT
Or in the Chutes des Anges partei? Time for some faits inutiles methinks... Yes! Perhaps she was Prester read She in the John, but that's another filement inutile! |
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Hash
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Post by Hash on Dec 14, 2015 16:13:47 GMT
If Marine Le Pen can't do better than 58-42 against a very polarizing and right-wing Xavier Bertrand in one of the best FN areas of France, she can't win the Presidential (which will includes places where FN was under 20%). Not sure why I even bother anymore, but Xavier Bertrand is not 'very polarizing' or a particularly extreme 'right-winger'. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2015 16:24:48 GMT
I like to think of a franco parallel universe where the forum pollster cygne arcadien swaps anecdotes with Fauteil critique and le Rey Cramoisil . I love it! I have had a go at translating this forum into other languages before, which makes fun reading. I suppose an equivalent forum could be set up for every country in the world - I have searched for some before, but haven't had much success. Perhaps election anoraks are fewer and further between outside northern Europe? They say Britain is the place to be if you're into unusual hobbies. |
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Dec 14, 2015 16:26:02 GMT
If Marine Le Pen can't do better than 58-42 against a very polarizing and right-wing Xavier Bertrand in one of the best FN areas of France, she can't win the Presidential (which will includes places where FN was under 20%). Not sure why I even bother anymore, but Xavier Bertrand is not 'very polarizing' or a particularly extreme 'right-winger'. In the uk we most likely never see labour give up the "east Midlands or any area" to help the cons beat ukip as all the right is evil to sections of the labour party/other left. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2015 16:42:14 GMT
If Marine Le Pen can't do better than 58-42 against a very polarizing and right-wing Xavier Bertrand in one of the best FN areas of France, she can't win the Presidential (which will includes places where FN was under 20%). Not sure why I even bother anymore, but Xavier Bertrand is not 'very polarizing' or a particularly extreme 'right-winger'. Where would you place him ideologically? |
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