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Post by Arthur Figgis on Dec 13, 2015 22:41:43 GMT
Specifically hoping to look at the detailed results and see Gaullist leads in Colombey and Marnay-sur-Marne, two places which are very dear to my heart. Both had (nationalist) socialist leads in the first round, which hurt. Colombey Richert 54.2% Phillipot 39.4% Masseret 6.35% Marnay Phillipot 37.4% Richert 34.8% Masseret 27.7% Chaumont Richert 49.8% Philippot 28.1% Masseret 22% As ever, grazie! |
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dizz
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Post by dizz on Dec 13, 2015 22:48:01 GMT
Overall vote share for the Left was only 30%, compared to 41% for the Right, and 29% for FN. 5 Regions was an excellent return on 30%. But, in a Presidential or Legislative election, that would produce a landslide for the Right. Noted. I wasn't saying that the results were a cause for PS celebration but remember that that gap would be reduced by the PS not standing in two regions (I assume) and their supporters in other regions (Alsace etc.) tactically supporting the right to stop the FN. So, in short, whilst either way they still lost and it might be that the right are still favoured to win the 2017 Presidential elections, this isn't looking like the PS car-crash that it once did (esp. if Valls is the candidate). |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Dec 13, 2015 23:36:36 GMT
Bourgogne: Socialists 34.0%, Conservative Coalition 33.5%, National Front 32.5% Holy smoke! Were the FN really only 1% swing from winning there? |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Dec 13, 2015 23:40:52 GMT
Bourgogne: Socialists 34.0%, Conservative Coalition 33.5%, National Front 32.5% Holy smoke! Were the FN really only 1% swing from winning there? No, it was an exit poll. Final results for Bourgogne-Franche-Comté: Left 34.7% Right 32.9% FN 32.4% |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 14, 2015 0:53:04 GMT
Overall vote share for the Left was only 30%, compared to 41% for the Right, and 29% for FN. 5 Regions was an excellent return on 30%. But, in a Presidential or Legislative election, that would produce a landslide for the Right. But that's because they don't run in two areas including the two largest in population |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2015 0:54:35 GMT
Overall vote share for the Left was only 30%, compared to 41% for the Right, and 29% for FN. 5 Regions was an excellent return on 30%. But, in a Presidential or Legislative election, that would produce a landslide for the Right. Noted. I wasn't saying that the results were a cause for PS celebration but remember that that gap would be reduced by the PS not standing in two regions (I assume) and their supporters in other regions (Alsace etc.) tactically supporting the right to stop the FN. So, in short, whilst either way they still lost and it might be that the right are still favoured to win the 2017 Presidential elections, this isn't looking like the PS car-crash that it once did (esp. if Valls is the candidate). Sort of agree. However IMO you do have a problem. It seems unlikely that the right will fail to make it into the final 2, so either the left make it or fn fail to make it. If the latter FN would break disproportionately rightwards. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 14, 2015 1:00:47 GMT
Noted. I wasn't saying that the results were a cause for PS celebration but remember that that gap would be reduced by the PS not standing in two regions (I assume) and their supporters in other regions (Alsace etc.) tactically supporting the right to stop the FN. So, in short, whilst either way they still lost and it might be that the right are still favoured to win the 2017 Presidential elections, this isn't looking like the PS car-crash that it once did (esp. if Valls is the candidate). Sort of agree. However IMO you do have a problem. It seems unlikely that the right will fail to make it into the final 2, so either the left make it or fn fail to make it. If the latter FN would break disproportionately rightwards. Difficult to tell. The FN vote appears to be 'a plague on all your houses' so it may depend who votes of that electorate at all |
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seanf
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Post by seanf on Dec 14, 2015 3:09:31 GMT
Merseymike,
Had they stood in those two regions, it would probably push up the PS vote share to 33% or so, unless their voters switched tactically behind the Right.
In my view, it was foolish of them to stand down, as the Left forfeit all their representatives in the two Regions for 6 years, paradoxically boosting FN representation, and making them sole opposition to the Right.
Overall, FN increased their number of Regional Assembly members from 118 to 356.
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seanf
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Post by seanf on Dec 14, 2015 3:11:20 GMT
MBoy,
FN were just 1.7% from winning Bougogne Franche Comte and 4% from Central Loire.
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Hash
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Post by Hash on Dec 14, 2015 3:48:25 GMT
Basically, this data should help temper overly bullish predictions of a FN sweep in the runoff. It's entirely within the realm of possibilities that after all the mass pandemonium, we'll end up with 0 FN regional presidencies. Ahem. Not extremely surprising, except perhaps the scale of some FN defeats. Anybody who has studied French elections at a more than cursory level could have told you that; unfortunately, journalists covering French elections are mostly idiots who have bought in to the trash pop analysis of French electoral politics. I could say more but most people usually ignore my stuff, so I won't bother. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2015 4:01:45 GMT
Basically, this data should help temper overly bullish predictions of a FN sweep in the runoff. It's entirely within the realm of possibilities that after all the mass pandemonium, we'll end up with 0 FN regional presidencies. Ahem. Not extremely surprising, except perhaps the scale of some FN defeats. Anybody who has studied French elections at a more than cursory level could have told you that; unfortunately, journalists covering French elections are mostly idiots who have bought in to the trash pop analysis of French electoral politics. I could say more but most people usually ignore my stuff, so I won't bother. Please do. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 14, 2015 5:35:30 GMT
LeMonde found out, that of the 22 old regions 12 would have fallen to the Rep., 8 to the Left (Bretagne, BasseNormandie, FrancheComte, Centre, PoitouChar., Limousin, Aquitaine, MidiPyr.), Corse naturally to that Regionalist and LanguedocR. to FN.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 14, 2015 5:42:40 GMT
But yesterday's outcome in Centre and both Burgundies demonstrated, that Mrs.LePen would have a chance in 1.5 years, if the other two candidates were neck to neck and the left one remained in the race.
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seanf
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Post by seanf on Dec 14, 2015 7:46:44 GMT
Only two go through to Round 2 at Presidential level. If it's Le Pen v another right winger, another right winger wins. If it's Le Pen vs a left winger, things get more interesting.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 14, 2015 8:31:23 GMT
Only two go through to Round 2 at Presidential level. Ah, sorry, I exchanged that with the LegislativeElections. After one night around details of France I don't know the basics anymore...
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 14, 2015 8:46:44 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2015 9:24:22 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 14, 2015 9:39:14 GMT
Because we were chatting about Bretagne and Alsace, few "old" maps may be shown (taken thankfully from F.Salmon: "Atlas électoral de la France")] This is a great book if you can find it. The page size is rather large (about 40cm x 25cm) allowing a fair detail. November 2001; Éditions du Seuil. ISBN 2-02-025568-5. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2015 9:39:50 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 14, 2015 10:29:18 GMT
MBoy, FN were just 1.7% from winning Bougogne Franche Comte and 4% from Central Loire. Close but no cigar. The fact remains that virtually nobody predicted they would fail to win any regions at all. |
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