Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2015 9:36:47 GMT
The right should avoid any alliance with the left, and refuse any mutual aid. It will just end up throwing more votes away to the FN
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 10, 2015 23:34:52 GMT
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Hash
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Post by Hash on Dec 11, 2015 4:26:14 GMT
An interesting older analysis from Ifop, dealing with FN gains from round to round in the spring's departmental elections. To summarize, the FN made the following gains (or loses) in the 2015 departmental elections, on average, in cantons where the party was qualified and present in the second round: Left/FN 2-ways (duels): +9.5% Right/FN 2-ways (duels): +5.4%
Triangulaires (3-ways): -2.1% -- incl.
37 triangulaires with FN first: -0.2%
96 triangulaires with FN second: -1.5% (and, where right first: -2%; where left first: -0.8%)
121 triangulaires with FN third: -3.3%
This table included in their analysis was also interesting:  In summary, FN gains in right/FN and left/FN duels were extremely impressive in the 2012 législatives (something I had noted at the time) and in the by-elections held since then, but were very mediocre in 2015 - the likely explanation being that, starting from higher levels in the first rounds of 2015, the FN has less 'reserves'. Basically, this data should help temper overly bullish predictions of a FN sweep in the runoff. It's entirely within the realm of possibilities that after all the mass pandemonium, we'll end up with 0 FN regional presidencies. |
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Dec 13, 2015 17:48:32 GMT
even if fn ends up with no presidencies they are going to win a couple 100s seats
last time 2010 seats were
ps 2nd list(other parties on ps list green/fg) 1006 + 58 (without left union)
repubs(lists) 511
fn 118
other left 92
green on its own 11
modem 10
others 27
fg on its own 6
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Dec 13, 2015 19:09:07 GMT
France 2 Regional Elections Second Round Exit Poll
Provence: Conservative Coalition 54.8%, National Front 45.2%
Picardy: Conservative Coalition 57.7%, National Front 42.3%
Bourgogne: Socialists 34.0%, Conservative Coalition 33.5%, National Front 32.5%
Auvergne: Conservative Coalition 40.5%, Socialist Coalition 36.8%, National Front 22.7%
Alsace: Conservative Coalition 47.9%, National Front 36.3%, Diverse Left 15.8%
Brittany: Socialists 51.3%, Conservative Coalition 29.5%, National Front 19.2%
Languedoc: Socialist Coalition 44.6%, National Front 33.8%, Conservative Coalition 21.6%
Aquitaine: Socialists 44.1%, Conservative Coalition 34.2%, National Front 21.7%
Loire Valley Central: Socialists 35.5%, Conservative Coalition 34.3%, National Front 30.2%
Normandy: Conservative Coalition 36.3%, Socialist Coalition 36.3%, National Front 27.4%
Loire Valley Country: Republicans 42.3%, Socialists 37.1%, National Front 20.6%
Corsica: Nationalists 36.9%, Diverse Left 27.8%, Conservative Coalition 26.5%, National Front 8.8%
Reunion: Conservative Coalition 52.7%, Socialist Coalition 47.3%
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 13, 2015 19:47:04 GMT
Yeah, Le Pen isn't going to become President.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2015 20:31:26 GMT
Got my fingers crossed for Bourgogne, Normandy and Loire Valley Central.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Dec 13, 2015 20:37:52 GMT
95% counted Bourgogne Franche Comté
PS 34.3 FN 32.93 Rep 32.76
98% counted Normandie
Rep 36.49 PS 35.91 FN 27.6
91% counted Centre Val de Loire
PS 34.66 Rep 34.5 FN 30.84
Normandie final
Right 36.43 Soc 36,08 FN 27.5
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Dec 13, 2015 20:59:55 GMT
Bourgogne & co final
PS 34.68
Rep 32.89
FN 32.44
Normandie final
Right 36.43
Soc 36,08
FN 27.5
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Dec 13, 2015 21:09:29 GMT
Haute Marne has a strange personal place in my heart. So- phew!
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Dec 13, 2015 21:13:09 GMT
Specifically hoping to look at the detailed results and see Gaullist leads in Colombey and Marnay-sur-Marne, two places which are very dear to my heart. Both had (nationalist) socialist leads in the first round, which hurt.
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dizz
Labour
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Post by dizz on Dec 13, 2015 21:16:26 GMT
More seriously, if Sarkozy thinks he's the answer after these results for his party...... well. PS - winning 5 regions. Much more impressive than the traditional right's 1 only, 5 years ago. |
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Post by greenhert on Dec 13, 2015 21:21:38 GMT
More seriously, if Sarkozy thinks he's the answer after these results for his party...... well. PS - winning 5 regions. Much more impressive than the traditional right's 1 only, 5 years ago. Which region was that, then? It must have been somewhere in the west of France.... |
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dizz
Labour
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Post by dizz on Dec 13, 2015 21:31:22 GMT
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Dec 13, 2015 21:33:01 GMT
Burgundy - Franche-Comté
left u list 51 seats down 13
right u 25 down 1
fn 24 up 14
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seanf
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Post by seanf on Dec 13, 2015 21:34:04 GMT
Overall vote share for the Left was only 30%, compared to 41% for the Right, and 29% for FN. 5 Regions was an excellent return on 30%. But, in a Presidential or Legislative election, that would produce a landslide for the Right.
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Dec 13, 2015 21:38:53 GMT
Brittany
left u 53 (ps only in 2010) up 1
right u 18 down 2
fn 12 up 12
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Post by bolbridge on Dec 13, 2015 22:15:35 GMT
Haute Marne has a strange personal place in my heart. So- phew! Same - I have friends in Chaumont. |
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Post by bolbridge on Dec 13, 2015 22:16:44 GMT
Haute Marne has a strange personal place in my heart. So- phew! Same - I have friends in Chaumont. I'm almost certain of a PS vote from them too |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Dec 13, 2015 22:36:51 GMT
Specifically hoping to look at the detailed results and see Gaullist leads in Colombey and Marnay-sur-Marne, two places which are very dear to my heart. Both had (nationalist) socialist leads in the first round, which hurt. Colombey Richert 54.2% Phillipot 39.4% Masseret 6.35% Marnay Phillipot 37.4% Richert 34.8% Masseret 27.7% Chaumont Richert 49.8% Philippot 28.1% Masseret 22% |
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