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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 15, 2015 20:36:43 GMT
Reading a live blog just now, I had missed that there will be regional elections on 6th and 13th December. The government have announced that they will not be postponed.
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Post by iainbhx on Nov 15, 2015 20:58:23 GMT
There has been some opinion polling for some regions which can be found on the French Wikipedia, however, I suspect that this is all moot since the tragic events in Paris.
Of course, I am only really interested in Elsaß-Lothringen or as it has now become the region of Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine.
I understand that the last polling for the premier tour was
FN 32, LR/UDI/MoDem 30, PS/PRG 19, FG/MRC 6,5 EELV 6
and for the second tour
LR/UDI/MoDem37, FN 35, Left 28
I would, of course, vote for Unser Land on the premier tour.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 15, 2015 21:18:43 GMT
As well as the inevitable impact of recent events, watch out for Brittany. A Breton regionalist list, led by one Christian Troadec, has emerged, and won the departmental election at Carhaix in March with over 60% of the vote. They will still score reasonably badly, but it's the most coherent Breton regionalist movement in years.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 15, 2015 22:01:02 GMT
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306 
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Post by maxque on Dec 6, 2015 5:06:22 GMT
Can anyone explain the voting system, which appears to include both lists and a second round? There is a normal first round. There is 2 thresholds to know. 10% and 5%. 10% (7% in Corsica) is the threshold allowing your list to take part in the 2nd round. 5% is the merger threshold. If you reach 5%, you can merge with another list. The seats are distributed in the 2nd round, with a majority bonus (so the winning list has a majority). |
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Post by iainbhx on Dec 6, 2015 15:54:44 GMT
Ici #RadioLondres - 1eme estimation NORD - FN 41% LR 25% PS 19%
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 6, 2015 16:01:36 GMT
A curiosity: in Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes, the PCF have entered a joint list with, bizarrely, the MRC aka the Chevenementists.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 6, 2015 16:07:18 GMT
Ici #RadioLondres - 1eme estimation NORD - FN 41% LR 25% PS 19% Nord is the key one to watch, but Le Monde report that this week's polls point to the FN coming out on top in Alsace-Lorraine-Champagne-Ardenne, and possibly also in Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes. Le Monde also suggests that Normandy is an enigma and it's unclear as to who will come out on top. |
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Post by iainbhx on Dec 6, 2015 16:16:26 GMT
Hints that FN have scored 33% across France, of course, still quite some time before the polls close at 20h
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,028
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 6, 2015 17:01:26 GMT
This is going to be very grim, but if you want a positive (sort of?) note that all the Regions do is bribe construction companies with public funds.
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Post by iainbhx on Dec 6, 2015 17:05:14 GMT
This is going to be very grim, but if you want a positive (sort of?) note that all the Regions do is bribe construction companies with public funds. And subsidise public transport. |
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Post by iainbhx on Dec 6, 2015 18:38:52 GMT
Latest rumours : National 27,5 FN, 27,35 LR, 23,5 PS
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Dec 6, 2015 18:43:21 GMT
France 2 exit poll on turnout: 50.5% (up about 4% on last time). The programme is being simulcast on TV5 Monde on Sky (Channel 796)
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Dec 6, 2015 19:01:10 GMT
France 2 Exit Poll : First Round
The Republicans 27%
Socialist Party 24%
National Front 27.2%
Green Party 6.6%
Extreme Left 4.0%
Others 11.2%
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Dec 6, 2015 19:11:22 GMT
Regional Exit Polls:
Nord-Pas-de-Calais and Picardy: National Front 40.3%
Provence, Alpes, Cote d'Azur: National Front 41.2%
Auvergne Rhone-Alpes: Republicans 32.0%
Brittany: Socialists 34.7%
Alsace-Lorraine: National Front 35.0%
Languedoc: National Front 30.9%
Bourgogne: National Front 32.1%
Aquitaine: Socialists 31.5%
Normandy: Republicans 28.8%
Loire Valley: Republicans 33.9%
Central Loire Valley: National Front 30.5%
Corsica: Diverse Left 18.9%, Corsican Independents 18.9%
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 6, 2015 19:22:54 GMT
MLP is believed now to be on 43% in Nord. MMLP is believed to be 10 percentage points ahead of Estrosi in the south-east, which is astonishing.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 6, 2015 19:27:57 GMT
Reports that the FN have come a narrow second in Normandy, which is a surprise.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 6, 2015 19:39:35 GMT
The FN has apparently got over 50% of the vote in Calais. It is less than a decade since Calais was run by the Communists.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,028
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 6, 2015 19:45:15 GMT
What was the turnout like? It was in the 40s nationally last time.
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Post by iainbhx on Dec 6, 2015 20:07:14 GMT
What was the turnout like? It was in the 40s nationally last time. Just a scrape over 50%, I understand. |
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