French Regional Elections 2015

[Deleted]

I often wonder how well Le Pen Senior would have done against Lionel Jospin in the second round of 2002.

[jamie]

Will Hollande run again in 2017? He seems to alternate between much more popular than his party and much less popular than his party. His best hope would be for a terrorist attack that fails spectacularly and makes his government look competent, or for Marine Le Pen to target right wing voters as opposed to those on the left as she seems to be doing now.

[Deleted]

Dec 7, 2015 20:51:54 GMT seanf said:

Marine Le Pen vs any right winger in Round 2. Any right winger wins, as left wing voters grudgingly back him.

Not necessarily if that right winger is Sarkozy (or someone to his right). Many leftists would view him as equally bad and simply stay home. It would be a turnout game, and those are always hard to predict. The Republicans right wing is increasingly sounding like the "new" mainstreamed FN. Who knows where we are at 2017?

A moderate centre-right candidate would of course win big. 

[johnsmith]

The elephant in the room here is probably the terrorist attacks in Paris. I strongly suspect that this has bolstered the Front Nationale vote on the crest of a reactionary wave of Islamophobia. Imagine the political impact if something happened on such a scale here.

Sadly, a strong showing for the Front Nationale on a wave of Islamophobia is exactly what ISIS wants, yet was probably inevitable.

Of course there are other factors too, eg the relative unpopularity of Hollande, and the fact that the current FN leader has a much more human - indeed more "respectable" - face. But the political impact of the Paris attacks was surely substantial.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Dec 7, 2015 21:49:36 GMT @odo said:

Dec 7, 2015 20:51:54 GMT seanf said:

Marine Le Pen vs any right winger in Round 2. Any right winger wins, as left wing voters grudgingly back him.

Not necessarily if that right winger is Sarkozy (or someone to his right). Many leftists would view him as equally bad and simply stay home. It would be a turnout game, and those are always hard to predict. The Republicans right wing is increasingly sounding like the "new" mainstreamed FN. Who knows where we are at 2017?

A moderate centre-right candidate would of course win big. 

I was thinking just that.  They didn't hate Chirac to the same degree that they hate Sarkozy.  Sarko v Marine would blow the mind of someone like Melenchon.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Dec 7, 2015 22:12:15 GMT johnsmith said:

The elephant in the room here is probably the terrorist attacks in Paris. I strongly suspect that this has bolstered the Front Nationale vote on the crest of a reactionary wave of Islamophobia. Imagine the political impact if something happened on such a scale here.

Sadly, a strong showing for the Front Nationale on a wave of Islamophobia is exactly what ISIS wants, yet was probably inevitable.

Of course there are other factors too, eg the relative unpopularity of Hollande, and the fact that the current FN leader has a much more human - indeed more "respectable" - face. But the political impact of the Paris attacks was surely substantial.

It's going to have an impact in some places, but this has been a long time coming.  The regions they've appeared strongly in are PACA (very right-wing, full of pieds-noirs), Alsace (very right-wing by just about any measure, although normally pro-EU), and Nord-Pas de Calais-Picardie, with Nord in particular in the midst of a decade-long backlash against an extremely corrupt local PS.  Some of the rest like Bourgogne-FC have just seen such massive swings that one event probably doesn't explain it.  Your penultimate sentence almost certain explains the key here.

[Devil Wincarnate]

For the amusement of those with an interest in French history.  The FN in Ile-de-France put up a veteran Catholic reactionary lawyer named...Saint-Just.

[Merseymike]

Economic populism appears to be a big part of the mix for the FN. The interview on todays TWAO stressed protectionism even above immigration - and traditionally French protectionism has been popular most of all on the left. Though France exports more than it imports, globalisation doesn't sell.

Do the FN still want to nationalise the banks?

[Devil Wincarnate]

Dec 7, 2015 22:54:10 GMT Merseymike said:

Economic populism appears to be a big part of the mix for the FN. The interview on todays TWAO stressed protectionism even above immigration - and traditionally French protectionism has been popular most of all on the left. Though France exports more than it imports, globalisation doesn't sell.

Do the FN still want to nationalise the banks?

Not sure, but it's not long since the FN used to issue lists of "un-French food" and their alternatives. There used to be a severe autarkic streak.

[Georg Ebner]

Dec 7, 2015 21:14:47 GMT swanarcadian said:

I often wonder how well Le Pen Senior would have done against Lionel Jospin in the second round of 2002.

As far as I remember Jospin's popularity had been fading away a lot, but for a PM he was relatively popular. Thus he should have won easily against the devil.

[Georg Ebner]

Has anyone, who understands French, read too, that PS will step down only in 3 regions?

[johnloony]

Dec 7, 2015 20:23:21 GMT jollyroger93 said:

These Results, suggest to me that Marine le Pen is well on her way to winning the first round of the presidental election in 2017.

Absolutely no way is that even remotely possible. The best she could get would be perhaps 35% or 40% in extreme circumstances, but I cannot even conceive of circumstances where she would get 50+%.

[Sibboleth]

I would be very careful of making any predictions based off these results; as noted earlier incumbent French governments pretty much always see their downballot comrades trashed in the Regional polls (much more so than in municipal or departmental elections). Notably the Left won a great victory in 2004 that was not exactly repeated at the 2007 Presidential/Legislative polls.

[jollyroger93]

Dec 8, 2015 1:06:36 GMT johnloony said:

Dec 7, 2015 20:23:21 GMT jollyroger93 said:

These Results, suggest to me that Marine le Pen is well on her way to winning the first round of the presidental election in 2017.

Absolutely no way is that even remotely possible. The best she could get would be perhaps 35% or 40% in extreme circumstances, but I cannot even conceive of circumstances where she would get 50+%.

 I meant coming top of the poll in the first round, not actually winning out right in the first round.

[carlton43]

Dec 8, 2015 1:06:36 GMT johnloony said:

Dec 7, 2015 20:23:21 GMT jollyroger93 said:

These Results, suggest to me that Marine le Pen is well on her way to winning the first round of the presidental election in 2017.

Absolutely no way is that even remotely possible. The best she could get would be perhaps 35% or 40% in extreme circumstances, but I cannot even conceive of circumstances where she would get 50+%.

How can you be so certain? The trend is remorselessly towards them. I consider it unlikely but possible....Certainly.

[Richard Allen]

Dec 8, 2015 9:15:56 GMT jollyroger93 said:

Dec 8, 2015 1:06:36 GMT johnloony said:

Absolutely no way is that even remotely possible. The best she could get would be perhaps 35% or 40% in extreme circumstances, but I cannot even conceive of circumstances where she would get 50+%.

 I meant coming top of the poll in the first round, not actually winning out right in the first round.

As you will soon discover John takes things literally, especially when talking about election results.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Drama in the Grand-Est (Alsace, Lorraine, Champagne, Ardenne). The PS grand fromage, Monsieur Massanet, is refusing to stand aside in face of the FN threat. This will almost certainly hand the region to the FN. Interestingly, a number of PS activists there are saying they will campaign for the Centre-Right and there is trouble au moulin.

[carlton43]

Dec 8, 2015 17:48:58 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Drama in the Grand-Est (Alsace, Lorraine, Champagne, Ardenne). The PS grand fromage, Monsieur Massanet, is refusing to stand aside in face of the FN threat. This will almost certainly hand the region to the FN. Interestingly, a number of PS activists there are saying they will campaign for the Centre-Right and there is trouble au moulin.

Red sails in the sunset?

[finsobruce]

Dec 8, 2015 22:51:36 GMT carlton43 said:

Dec 8, 2015 17:48:58 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Drama in the Grand-Est (Alsace, Lorraine, Champagne, Ardenne). The PS grand fromage, Monsieur Massanet, is refusing to stand aside in face of the FN threat. This will almost certainly hand the region to the FN. Interestingly, a number of PS activists there are saying they will campaign for the Centre-Right and there is trouble au moulin.

Red sails in the sunset?

La caravane perdue , indeed.....

[myth11]

Dec 8, 2015 17:48:58 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Drama in the Grand-Est (Alsace, Lorraine, Champagne, Ardenne). The PS grand fromage, Monsieur Massanet, is refusing to stand aside in face of the FN threat. This will almost certainly hand the region to the FN. Interestingly, a number of PS activists there are saying they will campaign for the Centre-Right and there is trouble au moulin.

well they have in effect chucked away a load of list seats and they still  might not stop the FN so i can see why some esp those on the top of the lists are angry.