French Regional Elections 2015

[Sibboleth]

Regional elections are usually fiascos for the Government and its side of politics; what's new/odd is that the main beneficiaries have been the FN rather than the respectable Opposition. And obviously the new regional boundaries backfired, because of course they did.

[Pete Whitehead]

[Richard Allen]

Surely no one is surprised by this?

FN where always going to do well even before the terrorist attacks in Paris.

[carlton43]

Dec 7, 2015 0:47:52 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Thanks Pete. Excellent to have. I have never really got a handle on the why of political distribution in France. Why is Brittany so red and Nord so different? Is the south red from poverty/deprivation/lack of growth? Why are some areas of deprivation hotbeds of FN whilst others stay so red?

[carlton43]

Our own poll is remarkably similar to the result.

[Sibboleth]

French voting patterns are more a very strange amalgam of historical habits, cultural traditions and personal votes than anything else. Its not a country where you can usually work out how somewhere votes without prior knowledge within ten seconds of visiting the place.

[Georg Ebner]

Amusingly it's strongly the MildWest, that resisted to FN. 200 years ago this was the HotBed of royalism...

[Georg Ebner]

98% counted (Guyane&Guadeloupe missing) has 37.20% for the Left, 2.79% for Others, 31.89% for the RightLiberals and 28.12% for the Right. Very much as the polls had predicted. 60.01:40.00 for the Right.

[Georg Ebner]

I assume, that the Left will support the Republicains wherever FN topped - i.e. N, SE, NE, Burgundies, Centre (not in S) - and eventually in ARA and Normandy.

[Georg Ebner]

Prognosis:

FN:
surely: N
likely: SE
unlikely: NE

UG:
surely: SW, Brittany
likely: S
unlikely: IdF, ARA

[Devil Wincarnate]

Dec 7, 2015 1:17:42 GMT Sibboleth said:

French voting patterns are more a very strange amalgam of historical habits, cultural traditions and personal votes than anything else. Its not a country where you can usually work out how somewhere votes without prior knowledge within ten seconds of visiting the place.

Nail on the head. Although broadly speaking, to answer Carlton, the PS vote in Brittany and the Cevennes in particular is a remnant of the anti-clerical tradition in those parts, whereas you'd not expect the equivalent areas in the UK to follow that pattern.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Dec 7, 2015 0:48:37 GMT Richard Allen said:

Surely no one is surprised by this?

FN where always going to do well even before the terrorist attacks in Paris.

I think it's the scale that is the surprise. The FN have racked up impressive scores across the country, including places once thought to be totally unreceptive.

[maxque]

Dec 7, 2015 7:10:28 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Dec 7, 2015 0:48:37 GMT Richard Allen said:

Surely no one is surprised by this?

FN where always going to do well even before the terrorist attacks in Paris.

I think it's the scale that is the surprise. The FN have racked up impressive scores across the country, including places once thought to be totally unreceptive.

Well, it's a surprise.

FN and Left were expected to do worse, and the right much better. The right collasped in its North-East strongholds due to FN. That wasn't expected. Also, PS held much better than expected against the right in the West.

Brittany, South-West and Midi seems quite safe for them and they can hope to come in the middle of the PS-LR-FN fights in a few regions (Normandy, Center...)

It's the traditionnal right which performed quite under expectations.

[john07]

Dec 7, 2015 7:08:37 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Dec 7, 2015 1:17:42 GMT Sibboleth said:

French voting patterns are more a very strange amalgam of historical habits, cultural traditions and personal votes than anything else. Its not a country where you can usually work out how somewhere votes without prior knowledge within ten seconds of visiting the place.

Nail on the head. Although broadly speaking, to answer Carlton, the PS vote in Brittany and the Cevennes in particular is a remnant of the anti-clerical tradition in those parts, whereas you'd not expect the equivalent areas in the UK to follow that pattern.

Brittany does seem to have swung from a right-leaning Region to the left over the past 50 years.

Paris has been similar consistently voting Chirac as mayor in the past and now more to the left.

Nord-Pas de Calais is I think one of those areas where much of the vote has flipped straight from the CPF to the FN.

[Georg Ebner]

Coalitions/Groups:

Parties:

(Data and terminology are taken from the HomeMinistry)

[myth11]

ALSACE-CHAMPAGNE-ARDENNE-LORRAINE will be a 3 way fight after all with the head of the ps list refusing to stand down which should improve the fn chances of winning.

[jollyroger93]

These Results, suggest to me that Marine le Pen is well on her way to winning the first round of the presidental election in 2017.

[Deleted]

Dec 7, 2015 20:23:21 GMT jollyroger93 said:

These Results, suggest to me that Marine le Pen is well on her way to winning the first round of the presidental election in 2017.

if she goes up against Hollande she may even win the second round.

[jollyroger93]

Dec 7, 2015 20:27:12 GMT @barctom said:

Dec 7, 2015 20:23:21 GMT jollyroger93 said:

These Results, suggest to me that Marine le Pen is well on her way to winning the first round of the presidental election in 2017.

if she goes up against Hollande she may even win the second round.

 Now that would be a result worth staying up for! but i doubt it. im sure the right in france would hold there nose to an extent and vote for Hollande.I think it would still be incredibly close.

[seanf]

Marine Le Pen vs any right winger in Round 2. Any right winger wins, as left wing voters grudgingly back him.

Marine Le Pen vs Hollande in Round 2. She probably wins.