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Post by greatkingrat on Oct 22, 2015 11:47:31 GMT
He was a PPC for the election in May 2015. That election has finished. He may wish to apply to stand again for the by-election but I'm not aware of any party where PPCs keep that status indefinitely.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2015 11:49:48 GMT
He was a PPC for the election in May 2015. That election has finished. He may wish to apply to stand again for the by-election but I'm not aware of any party where PPCs keep that status indefinitely. Veritas ? |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
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Post by mboy on Oct 22, 2015 12:24:38 GMT
He was a PPC for the election in May 2015. That election has finished. He may wish to apply to stand again for the by-election but I'm not aware of any party where PPCs keep that status indefinitely. In the Lib Dems PPCs remain so until November of that election year. |
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Post by La Fontaine on Oct 22, 2015 12:38:18 GMT
UKIP can target the Labour vote in ways the Tories cannot. If UKIP don't come a reasonable second, then the outlook for them is poor.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 22, 2015 12:47:27 GMT
Probably not very far off half of those who voted Labour in May would be muslims of Bangladeshi and Pakistani origin so not that susceptible to UKIP
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Post by bolbridge on Oct 22, 2015 13:19:07 GMT
He was a PPC for the election in May 2015. That election has finished. He may wish to apply to stand again for the by-election but I'm not aware of any party where PPCs keep that status indefinitely. In the Lib Dems PPCs remain so until November of that election year. But there are special procedures for a by-election. I don't think Garth will be the candidate (though I wouldn't rule it out). |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 22, 2015 15:18:11 GMT
Hint: The Labour candidate won't be David Miliband and it won't be Ed Balls. Hope this helps.
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 22, 2015 16:07:52 GMT
Hint: The Labour candidate won't be David Miliband and it won't be Ed Balls. Hope this helps. Tessa Jowell? Jim Murphy? Keir Hardie? Victor Grayson? I give up.  |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Oct 22, 2015 16:17:08 GMT
I wonder if carlton43 ever met Victor Grayson? |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Oct 22, 2015 16:19:18 GMT
Hint: The Labour candidate won't be David Miliband and it won't be Ed Balls. Hope this helps. Tessa Jowell? Jim Murphy? Keir Hardie? Victor Grayson? I give up. Larry Grayson? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2015 16:26:25 GMT
Meacher himself stood in the 1966 GE - at Colchester - and wasn't that far off being elected. But the present record holder here is also Father of The House - Kaufman stood at the 1955 (!) election, a full six decades ago. There was also a 1968 Oldham West by-election which I wasn't aware of until today. Meacher lost to the Tories by 3,311. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldham_West_by-election,_1968 That by-election of course could hardly have come at a worse time for Labour, when they were in mid term and lagging over 20% behind in the polls (the swing was 17.7%). On paper the Oldham West and Royton seat could have been a potential Conservative target had there been a by-election in spring/summer 2008, but local election results suggested otherwise. There would have been a sizable Lib Dem vote to squeeze. In the 1970 BBC election programme, the Oldham West result was reported as a "Labour gain" (as opposed to "Labour regain") and was included in their list of Labour's target seats, as were all the other seats the party had lost in by-elections since 1966. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2015 16:30:23 GMT
I would say a swing to UKIP is pretty certain There's even less of a Tory base than Heywood and Middleton with no Tory cllrs in this seat so it should be relatively easy for UKIP to squeeze Tory votes especially in Chadderton and manage at least 25-30% on a low turnout even if the size of the Asian vote stops them from getting too close to Labour. I would guess something like Lab 49% UKIP 30% COn 13% Others 8% I've aggregated the local election results (hope this is accurate) Lab 20812 52.9% UKIP 8701 22.1% Con 6482 16.5% LD 2299 5.8% Grn 1045 2.7% Maybe, although I'm less convinced of that than you, but I was more specifically thinking (at the risk of turning into David) of the swing between Labour and Conservative. Your prediction would represent about a 0.5% swing from Con to Lab, which wouldn't be too bad for team Corbyn. As in Birmingham Northfield, 1982. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Oct 22, 2015 16:31:20 GMT
Tessa Jowell? Jim Murphy? Keir Hardie? Victor Grayson? I give up. Larry Grayson? |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 22, 2015 16:39:40 GMT
I wonder if carlton43 ever met Victor Grayson? He 'disappeared' 95-years ago last month. Neil!.......Don't DOO that! I might have met Clarence Hatry and know some that did......Or indeed I might have met the latter day socialist 'disappeared one' John Stonehouse, but I didn't. What a lot of iffy MPs there have been. I don't think lot can be read into this seat. I suspect a low turnout and a Labour hold with some ease. I doubt a star candidate will emerge and see no chance of a Conservative success or even a good second for them. It is too early in the season to get up traction against Labour or the government and the public have no appetite for more politics. Events could drive a UKIP surge but I don't see one without a new stumulus. If it is a poor UKIP result it will pressage nothing at all at this stage of the cycle. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Oct 22, 2015 16:45:15 GMT
I wonder if carlton43 ever met Victor Grayson? Well I met Fenner Brockway who was of much the same generation (of Grayson not Carlton)! |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 22, 2015 16:47:19 GMT
Tessa Jowell? Jim Murphy? Keir Hardie? Victor Grayson? I give up. Larry Grayson? Larry Parnes? |
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Post by La Fontaine on Oct 22, 2015 17:07:30 GMT
I wonder if carlton43 ever met Victor Grayson? Well I met Fenner Brockway who was of much the same generation (of Grayson not Carlton)! I attended a Vietnam "peace" rally addressed by him in Boulogne. It was actually a war rally and quite unpleasant. We left & went to a local pub. |
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Post by samdwebber on Oct 22, 2015 17:19:48 GMT
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Post by timokane on Oct 22, 2015 18:16:00 GMT
Indeed, Royton. Royston is in north Hertfordshire. (Means two Parliaments in succession have their first byelections in Oldham seats) Oldham has another claim to fame. The only town to have been the birthplace of concurrent England captains at both football and cricket. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 22, 2015 18:26:14 GMT
Anyone remember the early ITV adverts with the slogan "I told'em Oldham"?
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