Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2015 23:27:57 GMT
Could it be a Tricky election for the Lib Dems? If it is then they will surely lose just as they did in '10 & '15. It may well be tricky for a Senior Policy Officer at the Information Commissioner's Office to stand for election. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 21, 2015 23:39:49 GMT
Speaking of Andrew Bennett, he stood in Knutsford in 1970 against John Davies and Geoffrey Tordoff. Are there any other elections where every person who stood ended up in the Commons or Lords?
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Post by greenhert on Oct 21, 2015 23:44:58 GMT
Speaking of Andrew Bennett, he stood in Knutsford in 1970 against John Davies and Geoffrey Tordoff. Are there any other elections where every person who stood ended up in the Commons or Lords?
There are indeed-one famous one is North West Durham in 1992. Theresa May has been MP for Maidenhead since 1997, and Tim Farron has been MP for Westmorland and Lonsdale since 2005. Hilary Armstrong, who was re-elected for the aforementioned North West Durham constituency in 1992, retired at the 2010 election.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 21, 2015 23:47:22 GMT
Kingswood in February and October 1974
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Oct 22, 2015 0:27:40 GMT
One or two more excitable people earlier on politicalbetting.com were speculating about the possibility that Labour support might collapse because of Corbyn, and UKIP's support will collapse because of anyway, and therefore the Conservative Party might have a chance of winning if a substantial campaign effort is launched. I won't bother looking out of the window to see if there are any pigs flying past with labels saying "18% swing to the government" on them.
A few people on Twitter said that Meacher's death was "unexpected". Individually it may be, but collectively it sadly isn't. At the time of the general election in May I was quite consciously aware of the fact that a number of octogenarian MPs (Kaufman, Skinner, Winnick and so on) had been (for whatever reasons) re-elected instead of retiring. If one includes the septuagenarians as well, the playing field (if that is the right word) is ripe for a by-election or few before 2020.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2015 6:11:36 GMT
What sort of timescale do we think for the by election? end of November beginning of December?
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Post by markgoodair on Oct 22, 2015 7:07:20 GMT
What sort of timescale do we think for the by election? end of November beginning of December? I would think so. |
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by johnr on Oct 22, 2015 7:47:49 GMT
I'd vote for Lembit, lol  Anyway, I've seen that Ed Balls is being touted around a bit for Labour. Not sure why he'd want it, but clearly the sane part of the Labour Party is wanting some heavyweights back in the game. I dont think he'd want to. He was quite clear after the election that he wasnt going back to politics. And the current leadership team contains a number of people who were quite gleeful at his defeat. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2015 7:50:52 GMT
I'd vote for Lembit, lol Anyway, I've seen that Ed Balls is being touted around a bit for Labour. Not sure why he'd want it, but clearly the sane part of the Labour Party is wanting some heavyweights back in the game. I dont think he'd want to. He was quite clear after the election that he wasnt going back to politics. And the current leadership team contains a number of people who were quite gleeful at his defeat. Hasn't he just taken up an academic post ? Also the 'tradition' in these circs is to select a candidate with similar political views to the deceased MP. Now Ball & Meacher may have had some things in common but ........ |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Oct 22, 2015 7:51:01 GMT
Including the current head of policy!
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 22, 2015 9:12:09 GMT
The result here is highly unlikely to be in any doubt. The direction and magnitude of the swing is much less certain...
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 22, 2015 9:34:53 GMT
Speaking of Andrew Bennett, he stood in Knutsford in 1970 against John Davies and Geoffrey Tordoff. Are there any other elections where every person who stood ended up in the Commons or Lords? I think there will have been plenty, because of the number of 'straight fights' there used to be. I have just watched most of the 1970 election night on Youtube, and there were several constituencies where I recognised the (one) defeated candidate as a future MP. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 22, 2015 9:58:45 GMT
One or two more excitable people earlier on politicalbetting.com were speculating about the possibility that Labour support might collapse because of Corbyn, and UKIP's support will collapse because of anyway, and therefore the Conservative Party might have a chance of winning if a substantial campaign effort is launched Is there any other "mainstream" political site as away with the fairies as that one? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2015 10:29:10 GMT
The result here is highly unlikely to be in any doubt. The direction and magnitude of the swing is much less certain... even if the size of the Asian vote stops them from getting too close to Labour. 26.5% of population of asian heritage according to 2011 census |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 22, 2015 10:43:33 GMT
The result here is highly unlikely to be in any doubt. The direction and magnitude of the swing is much less certain... I would say a swing to UKIP is pretty certain There's even less of a Tory base than Heywood and Middleton with no Tory cllrs in this seat so it should be relatively easy for UKIP to squeeze Tory votes especially in Chadderton and manage at least 25-30% on a low turnout even if the size of the Asian vote stops them from getting too close to Labour. I would guess something like Lab 49% UKIP 30% COn 13% Others 8% I've aggregated the local election results (hope this is accurate) Lab 20812 52.9% UKIP 8701 22.1% Con 6482 16.5% LD 2299 5.8% Grn 1045 2.7% Maybe, although I'm less convinced of that than you, but I was more specifically thinking (at the risk of turning into David) of the swing between Labour and Conservative. Your prediction would represent about a 0.5% swing from Con to Lab, which wouldn't be too bad for team Corbyn. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 22, 2015 10:47:14 GMT
I might be wrong about this, but wasn't David Winnick first elected an MP in 1966, but subsequently defeated and elected again? Obviously(!) rules him out as FoH for the moment. Meacher himself stood in the 1966 GE - at Colchester - and wasn't that far off being elected. But the present record holder here is also Father of The House - Kaufman stood at the 1955 (!) election, a full six decades ago. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 22, 2015 10:49:09 GMT
I might be wrong about this, but wasn't David Winnick first elected an MP in 1966, but subsequently defeated and elected again? Obviously(!) rules him out as FoH for the moment. Meacher himself stood in the 1966 GE - at Colchester - and wasn't that far off being elected. But the present record holder here is also Father of The House - Kaufman stood at the 1955 (!) election, a full six decades ago. There was also a 1968 Oldham West by-election which I wasn't aware of until today. Meacher lost to the Tories by 3,311. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldham_West_by-election,_1968 |
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Post by bolbridge on Oct 22, 2015 11:02:38 GMT
Could it be a Tricky election for the Lib Dems? If it is then they will surely lose just as they did in '10 & '15. It may well be tricky for a Senior Policy Officer at the Information Commissioner's Office to stand for election. Pretty sure he isn't politically restricted. |
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Post by bolbridge on Oct 22, 2015 11:05:51 GMT
The result here is highly unlikely to be in any doubt. The direction and magnitude of the swing is much less certain... I would say a swing to UKIP is pretty certain There's even less of a Tory base than Heywood and Middleton with no Tory cllrs in this seat so it should be relatively easy for UKIP to squeeze Tory votes especially in Chadderton and manage at least 25-30% on a low turnout even if the size of the Asian vote stops them from getting too close to Labour. I would guess something like Lab 49% UKIP 30% COn 13% Others 8% I've aggregated the local election results (hope this is accurate) Lab 20812 52.9% UKIP 8701 22.1% Con 6482 16.5% LD 2299 5.8% Grn 1045 2.7% Have to disagree. UKIP are in trouble and the Tories in Greater Manchester are still on a buzz right now. I think the Tories will pile in and come second. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 22, 2015 11:08:12 GMT
Just out of interest. When does Garth Harkness officially stop being PPC for Oldham West and Royton under Lib Dem rules and could that be at all relevant?
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