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Post by markgoodair on Jun 5, 2015 18:25:24 GMT
Turkish voters go to the polls on Sunday. It's a dead certainty that the ruling AK party will win but by how much?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 5, 2015 20:17:49 GMT
I am praying for a good CHP showing. Not out of support for the CHP, but to rattle Erdogan.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,589 
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Post by cibwr on Jun 6, 2015 8:12:46 GMT
If the Kurdish political parties get over the 10% threshold to get into the Grand National Assembly it may stymie the attempt to change the constitution, a 3/5 majority is needed.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 7, 2015 12:18:41 GMT
When Erdogan first appeared, I quite foolishly believed that he was what he claimed to be- an Islamic mirror of a Christian Democrat. Of course, I was enormously misguided. His attitude towards the Kurds has suddenly become more hardline as soon as it became politically expedient, for example.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 7, 2015 14:16:39 GMT
When Erdogan first appeared, I quite foolishly believed that he was what he claimed to be- an Islamic mirror of a Christian Democrat. Of course, I was enormously misguided. His attitude towards the Kurds has suddenly become more hardline as soon as it became politically expedient, for example. Lets not forget tacit support for some of the more hard line Islamist rebel groups in Syria. Turkey could have strangled ISIS at birth but gave them a free run of the border because they were viewed as a means of stopping a defacto Kurdish state in Syria. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 7, 2015 16:44:11 GMT
Looks like HDP are going to be over 10%.
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 7, 2015 16:53:28 GMT
Looks like HDP are going to be over 10%. Good. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,028
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 7, 2015 18:11:08 GMT
When Erdogan first appeared, I quite foolishly believed that he was what he claimed to be- an Islamic mirror of a Christian Democrat. Of course, I was enormously misguided. His attitude towards the Kurds has suddenly become more hardline as soon as it became politically expedient, for example. As time has gone by he has become steadily worse, yeah. As such an electoral blow such as this is a good thing. But he and his party are still an improvement on what came before. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2015 18:18:52 GMT
PMSL. AKP has lost around 8% of the vote. HDP are at 12% with more than 95% of the vote counted. According to Hurriyet the AKP are currently short by 20 of a majority.
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Post by dizz on Jun 7, 2015 19:09:17 GMT
/photo/1  |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 7, 2015 19:16:11 GMT
Questionable, what will happen. Can MHP and HDP cooperate somehow? For how long? A chaotic AntiErdoganCoalition and SnapElections with an AKP-SuperMajority? A MinorityGovernment of AKP? AKP&MHP or AKP&HDP?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 7, 2015 19:43:21 GMT
Almost all the votes in and it looks like:
AKP 258
CHP 132
MHP 82
HDP 78
So AKP well short of a majority.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2015 19:53:08 GMT
Questionable, what will happen. Can MHP and HDP cooperate somehow? For how long? A chaotic AntiErdoganCoalition and SnapElections with an AKP-SuperMajority? A MinorityGovernment of AKP? AKP&MHP or AKP&HDP? We know the Erdogan plan:create trumped up political charges against opponents, attack the press, throw money at pet projects, have a quick election. The opposition parties need to unite around their common interests, most immediately dropping the ludicrously undemocratic 10% threshold. This will lead to the AKP having less hope of a majority in furure. |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Jun 7, 2015 21:02:39 GMT
Can someone with better understanding of Turkish Politics than I explain why a AKP-MHP alliance isn't on the cards?
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Post by bolbridge on Jun 7, 2015 21:08:55 GMT
Can someone with better understanding of Turkish Politics than I explain why a AKP-MHP alliance isn't on the cards? They may cooperate to some degree these days. Traditionally MHP was one of the secular parties and therefore would not work with the AKP; being nationalist generally meant being more secular because of Ataturk's historic secular nationalism. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2015 21:14:29 GMT
Can someone with better understanding of Turkish Politics than I explain why a AKP-MHP alliance isn't on the cards? They may cooperate to some degree these days. Traditionally MHP was one of the secular parties and therefore would not work with the AKP; being nationalist generally meant being more secular because of Ataturk's historic secular nationalism. Also, they are wary of being squeezed by the AKP electoral machinations. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 7, 2015 21:27:28 GMT
Does anyone know (looking at that map) where that single MHP stronghold is and if there's any history behind it? Similarly the isolated CHP sections on the south coast and inland.
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Jun 7, 2015 21:44:11 GMT
Does anyone know (looking at that map) where that single MHP stronghold is and if there's any history behind it? Similarly the isolated CHP sections on the south coast and inland. After a two minute wiki search I found the MHP province is Osmaniye and that their support there might be explained by the fact that it is the province of party leader, Devlet Bahceli. Whether there is more to it than that I cannot say. |
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Post by dizz on Jun 7, 2015 22:58:33 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,028
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 7, 2015 23:38:10 GMT
Can someone with better understanding of Turkish Politics than I explain why a AKP-MHP alliance isn't on the cards? Because they come from different political traditions. The MHP is a fascist party - to this day they have not broken their links to the Grey Wolves - and as such is very much part of the nationalist political camp. |
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