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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 19, 2015 17:55:56 GMT
That's actually rather better for us in Bedford than I thought.
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Post by Harrier on Dec 19, 2015 18:55:03 GMT
Would be fascinating to see Cheshire and Staffordshire. Excellent work Pete Whitehead, it is much appreciated!
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Post by A Brown on Dec 19, 2015 21:08:48 GMT
My guesses were Knightsbridge and Belgravia Speke Garston Golf Green Kendal Nether St Peters and North Laine For the SNP, I'd guess either North East (Dundee) or Fraserburgh & District. Abronhill, Kildrum and the Village in Cumbernauld is another possibility. I guess the SNP vote in Glasgow would have been pretty uniform. |
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Post by afleitch on Dec 21, 2015 15:46:00 GMT
 Slight segway. Will post full thread for this but here is Scotland 1992 tweaked and finished. Massive barrels of salt for Dumfries and Galloway, Borders and Highlands. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2016 18:44:44 GMT
For the SNP, I'd guess either North East (Dundee) or Fraserburgh & District. What about Barraigh, Bhatarsaigh Eirisgeigh Agus Uibhist A Deas (Barra and South Uist)? Does anyone know what the best ward is in Scotland for the other parties? Ditto Wales? |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jan 4, 2016 19:17:03 GMT
Does anyone know what the best ward is in Scotland for the other parties? Ditto Wales? At a guess I'll say, * Meadows/Morningside for Labour * Kelso and District for the Conservatives I'm not sure about the Lib Dems but I think for mainland Scotland it was either Milngavie or St Andrews. Newton Mearns South, possibly? |
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Post by A Brown on Jan 4, 2016 19:25:27 GMT
Does anyone know what the best ward is in Scotland for the other parties? Ditto Wales? At a guess I'll say, * Meadows/Morningside for Labour * Kelso and District for the Conservatives I'm not sure about the Lib Dems but I think for mainland Scotland it was either Milngavie or St Andrews. I would have thought perhaps: Con: Annandale East Lab: Meadows/Morningside LD: Either Tay Bridgehead, Milngavie or Corstorphine/Murrayfield |
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Post by afleitch on Jan 7, 2016 8:54:15 GMT
Notional Galloway and West Dumfries SNP 44.5 CON 29.8 LAB 21.1 LIB 2.0 Dumfriesshire CON 38.7 SNP 32.6 LAB 23.0 LIB 1.8  |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jan 9, 2016 17:08:38 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 11, 2016 17:17:55 GMT
Certainly but I have nothing in the pipeline at the moment. I've become a bit distracted by the historical results back to 1973 which has enabled me to extend my Lander project back that far. I did make an abortive start on Hereford & Worcester which I had chosen by a process of random selection but when I looked at the local results in Herefordshire they were so meaningless in partisan terms that I didn't get any further. This was just before Christmas |
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Post by A Brown on Jan 11, 2016 20:32:18 GMT
East Lothian Conservative Labour Scottish National Notional for East Lothian (Scottish Parliament):Scottish National - 40% Labour - 31% Conservative - 22% Others - 7% Results for East Lothian council:
Scottish National - 43% Labour - 31% Conservative - 20% Others - 6% I doubt Labour won Haddington/Lammermuir, it probably went something like SNP 38 Lab 30 Con 25 Others 7 |
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Post by oldwarhorse on Jan 11, 2016 21:10:25 GMT
Did I ever say that our GE results in the borough of Stockton were counted by polling district and wards and then added together to give the result?
I can probably still get them from my external hard drive over the weekend if anyone is curious
We had local elections on the same day so it can make for an interesting comparison.
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Post by afleitch on Jan 11, 2016 21:52:41 GMT
Worth noting that the SNP won Haddington and Lammermuir in 2007. Haddington votes very similarly to rural Berwickshire, Ettrick/Lauderdale and so the Labour vote there would have been severely squeezed, probably in third place.
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Post by afleitch on Jan 11, 2016 22:46:37 GMT
You don't have trends; that's the whole point. Correlating votes to hypothetical referendum projections are based on nothing more than your own calculations. They are absolutely meaningless. They are even MORE meaningless than using council results, because at least they have a basis when tested against actual cast votes (in 2007 in Scotland in London Assembly ward breakdowns)
If you want to actually take a decent stab at how votes moved from party to party, look at the Ashcroft constituency polls. They are good samples that aren't that far off and show general movements. The swathe of Lib Dems in 2007 voted SNP in 2011. Those same voters in 2010, did the same thing in 2015. In Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, it was estimated 27% of Lib Dem voters in 2010 moved to the SNP (only 3% to Labour), 31% of Labour voters did the same. In Edinburgh South the split of Lib Dem voters to SNP and Labour was broadly equal. Your notionals appear to show the entire Labour vote cleaving off to vote SNP with all the unionists staying loyal to the unionist challenger. That didn't happen. There's no evidence of that happening in either national or constituency polls.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 11, 2016 23:25:24 GMT
Did I ever say that our GE results in the borough of Stockton were counted by polling district and wards and then added together to give the result? I can probably still get them from my external hard drive over the weekend if anyone is curious We had local elections on the same day so it can make for an interesting comparison. Yes I'd be very interested to see these especially as with the strength of Independents in so many of the wards it can make extrapolating very difficult. A complete map of the borough by polling district would be interesting to see |
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Post by afleitch on Jan 12, 2016 14:51:56 GMT
Please don't partially quote me.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jan 12, 2016 14:54:05 GMT
OK.  |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 12, 2016 14:56:40 GMT
Andrew's fundamental point is clearly correct: there is no reason to believe that Labour gained a significant number of votes other than in the unusual case (where part of the issue was the SNP candidate let us not forget) of Edinburgh South. It is pretty clear that the distribution of the Labour vote in Scotland was the usual one, but greatly reduced and without the usual higher numbers in Catholic areas. In fact it is notable that the first (tiny) success since the May meltdown came in a very 'traditional' Labour town.
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Post by afleitch on Jan 12, 2016 18:04:36 GMT
I still think you're missing a wider point and it's not to do with Labour v SNP but that im brief the SNP were probably more successful at poaching voters from the Lib Dems and possibly even from Tories than Labour was.
There's not much evidence of Tory/Lib Dem 'backfilling' the Labour vote as it collapsed.
The pre-coalition Lib Dem vote of 2010 collapsed in 2015 in the same manner in which its pre-coalition 2007 vote collapsed in 2011. These were the same pool of voters who behaved in similar ways in each election. In short, the Lib Dems who moved en masse to the SNP in 2011 (an election in which Labour fell back only a little) did the same thing in 2015. They had already done it and they were already going to do it. The constituency results themselves bear that out.
So when playing about with hypotheticals, the referendum means nothing because the referendum was not a catalyst for the movement of voters. As I’ve mentioned here before, the Yes vote was made up of those who had made ‘the journey’ to the SNP in the first instance in 2011 and were already receptive to that idea. That’s why the support for the SNP was almost 90% of Yes voters, not because they were Yes voters, but they had already been SNP voters in 2011. The only major exception as Alun mentioned, being the side effect of sticking a ‘Union’ flag, however fleeting, on the Labour Party was its toxic effect on Catholic voters which made what was a very significant seismic shift in 2011 even larger in that part of the country in 2015. The SNP performance outside the central belt was essentially the same as it was in 2011 (and equally as uniform)
The second key point is that there is no evidence of nationwide Unionist tactical vote (tactical voting can never happen nationwide anyway) except in specific cases such as Edinburgh South and of course East Dunbartonshire, seats that have always been bastions of tactical voting. Lib Dems were not running around helping Labour in Airdrie; they were voting SNP (which is why they collapsed to insignificance).
The big Ashcroft poll dump (in Labour held seats) suggested that at that time, early 2015, that 47% of 2010 Lib Dem voters were going to vote SNP, 21% Labour and 14% Green (which you can in some seats, add to the SNP total) Of Tory voters, 16% were voting Labour but 13% were voting SNP; there wasn’t a huge move to Labour. Most significantly, only 1% of Labour voters (3900 sample size, so more than just noise) said they would vote Tory and less than 1% Lib Dem, with 60% staying Labour and 35% voting SNP.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jan 12, 2016 18:35:48 GMT
As I’ve mentioned here before, the Yes vote was made up of those who had made ‘the journey’ to the SNP in the first instance in 2011 and were already receptive to that idea. So why were many of the strongest 'yes' areas those which didn't vote SNP in 2011? They were, for the most part, held by Labour. This claim strikes me as bullshit. The second key point is that there is no evidence of nationwide Unionist tactical vote (tactical voting can never happen nationwide anyway) except in specific cases such as Edinburgh South and of course East Dunbartonshire, seats that have always been bastions of tactical voting. Lib Dems were not running around helping Labour in Airdrie; they were voting SNP (which is why they collapsed to insignificance) There is significant evidence of tactical voting for and from Lib Dems. There was clearly tactical voting for the Lib Dems in all of the held seats apart from Aberdeenshire West and Berwickshire, whether or not they had a significant history of tactical voting. Furthermore, there was clearly squeezing of the Lib Dem vote elsewhere. In the likes of Edinburgh North, Edinburgh South and Aberdeen South. Try comparing to the list votes in 2011 and you will see very significant tactical voting. This appears to be obvious. |
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