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Post by A Brown on Dec 2, 2015 23:06:59 GMT
Here's my work-in-progress UK General Election 2015 map for Scotland by electoral ward... The map below is not perfect but it does provide a base to work around... Subject to alteration where necessary.
 I've just fixed up my Scottish notionals, giving the Conservatives Abbey and Lochar in Dumfries and Galloway and giving the SNP Hazlehead in Aberdeen City... I am actually pretty satisfied with the map now! I believe that in Dumfries & Galloway last year's Yes vote was predominantly concentrated and Wigtownshire and Nithsdale, with strong No majorities in rural Dumfriesshire and Kirkcudbrightshire. To my surprise the No vote in Galloway & West Dumfries looks to have followed a very similar pattern to that of Ayr - effectively giving the Scottish Conservatives equal chances in the two Scottish Parliamentary seats... What are your figures for Edinburgh, East Lothian and D and G wards? Labour surely didn't win Haddington or East Linton/Dunbar because they had only 35 and 40% respectively in 2010. labour also possibly won Liberton/Gilmerton. |
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Post by A Brown on Dec 3, 2015 10:41:01 GMT
What are your figures for Edinburgh, East Lothian and D and G wards? Labour surely didn't win Haddington or East Linton/Dunbar because they had only 35 and 40% respectively in 2010. labour also possibly won Liberton/Gilmerton. Liberton/Gilmerton - 50% SNP 31% Labour 15% Conservative 3% Green 2% Liberal Democrat 1% UKIP Meadows/Morningside - 44% Labour 24% SNP 21% Conservative 5% Green 5% Liberal Democrat 1% UKIP Southside/Newington - 41% Labour 27% SNP 20% Conservative 5% Green 5% Liberal Democrat 1% UKIP DUMFRIES AND GALLOWAY-* Annandale East went 60% Conservative, 27% Scottish National Party * Annandale West/North went 50% Conservative, 33% Scottish National Party * Wards in Wigtownshire and Nith went around 45% Scottish National / 24% Conservative * Dumfries North West had 50% SNP / 20% Conservative * Conservative wards in Kirkcudbrightshire/Mid&Upper Nithsdale/Lochar went around 45% Conservative, 35% Scottish National Party EAST LOTHIAN-Where did you get the 2010 results for the wards? If we assume that you're suggestion is correct then I'd say a Labour hold in those areas is even more plausible! I'd imagine a Labour vote of around 40% in those areas (sustained by tactical voting by former Liberal Democract voters in the area), over an SNP vote of 35%. [Sorry if some of my suggestions are vague, my post deleted and I lost my work  ] Figures for 2010 in East Lothian and D and G are on the old ukpollingreport site by Aidan Thomson. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Dec 3, 2015 13:07:21 GMT
What do you have for Annandale South and Tweeddale West? I am still extremely sceptical that the Tories carried Annandale South.
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Post by afleitch on Dec 4, 2015 18:57:01 GMT
You should publish the figures  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 5, 2015 14:49:17 GMT
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Post by iain on Dec 5, 2015 17:05:34 GMT
Not the Lib Dems carrying Hinckley?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 5, 2015 21:23:16 GMT
I included Burbage in the Hinckley total though it is a separate parish. In any case the Tories are ahead in the aggregate of the four ward of Hinckley 'proper' despite only winning one of them, though the margin is sufficiently tight as to render a different outcome possible
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 16, 2015 15:27:40 GMT
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Post by A Brown on Dec 16, 2015 16:33:15 GMT
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Post by iain on Dec 16, 2015 16:33:39 GMT
Very interesting - surprised you have the Tories carrying both Clifton wards.
Also hadn't realised the Lib Dems would have lost quite so badly in Bath! Product of an evenly spread vote I guess.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 16, 2015 17:14:05 GMT
Very interesting - surprised you have the Tories carrying both Clifton wards. Also hadn't realised the Lib Dems would have lost quite so badly in Bath! Product of an evenly spread vote I guess. I had the Tories winning the Cliftons with less than 30% of the vote (and the other 3 parties all over 20%). LIke you i'm dubious about some of those figures on UKPR (although you appear to have deleted your post?). The Tories won over 1800 votes in the local elections in Clifton ward and I wouldn't have thought they'd have shed over 700 of these with Labour being the main beneficiary. Most of my figures are fairly similar though. The two wards I have voting Green were on a knife edge. It could be i've understated the turnout in Bishopston and Redland (as they didn't have local elections this year I had to guess a bit) but if thats the case that would tend to reinforce the Tory position in Clifton |
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Post by iain on Dec 16, 2015 18:30:30 GMT
LIke you i'm dubious about some of those figures on UKPR (although you appear to have deleted your post?). I deleted my post (about differential turnout in different wards) upon examining the turnout for the council elections a bit closer, though there are some oddities still, with all the UKPR figures below the council turnout with the exception of either Cabot or Cotham (I forget which), and the turnout appearing to be significantly lower in one of the Cliftons (though again I forget which). On the other hand, I'm not sure how 'Loyalred' would have arrived at these figures if they were not taken from the count. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 16, 2015 18:44:38 GMT
Yes I'm sure they were so must be given some credence but I still think they can only be an estimate rather than an exact figure - it isn't possible to count every vote so they are only really sampling
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2015 21:59:23 GMT
Exalts to Pete. This is why I think he should be Technical Contributor of the Year.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2015 23:27:23 GMT
Have to agree, I owe the little I know about psephology to Pete.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2015 23:49:43 GMT
Has Pete (or anyone) been able to determine which wards were the strongest for each party in the entire country in terms of vote share? Perhaps it is too early to say at this stage.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 16, 2015 23:58:10 GMT
Highest I've identified so far for the Tories is Royal Hospital (Chelsea) at 78% with Aldenham East (Radlett, Herts) not far behind. Labour highest is Evrton, Liverpool at 85%
The Lib Dems highest will undoubtedly be somewhere in Westmorland, probably in Kendal while I can't imagine UKIP surpassing the 55% I have for them in Golf Green (Jaywick)
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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2015 0:28:44 GMT
My guesses were
Knightsbridge and Belgravia
Speke Garston
Golf Green
Kendal Nether
St Peters and North Laine
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 19, 2015 15:21:44 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2015 17:40:25 GMT
My guesses were Knightsbridge and Belgravia Speke Garston Golf Green Kendal Nether St Peters and North Laine For the SNP, I'd guess either North East (Dundee) or Fraserburgh & District. |
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