2015 notional results (wards)

[Pete Whitehead]

I had calculated those figures as it turns out


Mine on the left the 'official' ones on the right

Watford			Watford
Con	29411	50.0%	Con	28655	49.5%
Lab	21845	37.1%	Lab	21896	37.8%
Lib	7019	11.9%	Lib	6852	11.8%
Oth	561	1.0%	Oth	539	0.9%
Maj	7566	12.9%	Maj	6759	11.7%
West Hertfordshire			West Hertfordshire
Con	28295	46.1%	Con	27671	44.9%
Lab	27896	45.4%	Lab	28354	46.0%
Lib	4653	7.6%	Lib	5075	8.2%
Oth	535	0.9%	Oth	518	0.8%
Maj	399	0.7%	Maj	683	1.1%
SW Hertfordshire			SW Hertfordshire
Con	31215	54.8%	Con	31215	58.8%
Lab	17086	30.0%	Lab	17670	29.5%
Lib	7934	13.9%	Lib	6311	10.5%
Oth	707	1.2%	Oth	719	1.2%
Maj	14129	24.8%	Maj	17525	29.3%
Hertsmere			Hertsmere
Con	30222	54.6%	Con	28310	52.1%
Lab	16543	29.9%	Lab	15697	28.9%
Lib	7918	14.3%	Lib	7606	17.7%
Oth	655	1.2%	Oth	679	1.3%
Maj	13679	24.7%	Maj	12613	23.2%
St Albans			St Albans
Con	30269	52.8%	Con	29711	52.6%
Lab	13460	23.5%	Lab	12930	22.9%
Lib	13583	23.7%	Lib	13866	24.5%
Oth	23	0.0%	Oth	26	0.0%
Maj	16809	29.1%	Maj	15845	28.0%
Welwyn Hatfield			Welwyn Hatfield
Con	28270	47.3%	Con	28056	47.4%
Lab	25530	42.8%	Lab	25781	43.6%
Lib	5479	9.2%	Lib	4883	8.3%
Oth	436	0.7%	Oth	430	0.7%
Maj	2741	4.5%	Maj	2275	3.8%
Broxbourne			Broxbourne
Con	28403	56.7%	Con	29210	56.8%
Lab	14538	29.0%	Lab	13618	26.5%
Lib	5899	11.8%	Lib	7404	14.4%
Oth	1286	2.6%	Oth	1158	2.3%
Maj	13865	27.7%	Maj	15592	30.3%
Hertford & Stortford			Hertford & Stortford
Con	28188	54.0%	Con	27883	54.9%
Lab	15045	28.8%	Lab	15820	31.1%
Lib	8222	15.8%	Lib	6234	12.3%
Oth	724	1.4%	Oth	854	1.7%
Maj	13143	25.2%	Maj	12063	23.8%
Stevenage			Stevenage
Con	22252	43.6%	Con	21586	42.4%
Lab	22397	43.9%	Lab	22574	44.3%
Lib	5851	11.5%	Lib	6228	12.2%
Oth	532	1.0%	Oth	531	1.0%
Maj	144	0.3%	Maj	988	0.3%
North Hertfordshire			North Hertfordshire
Con	30316	51.6%	Con	30667	51.9%
Lab	19077	32.5%	Lab	19076	32.3%
Lib	7609	12.9%	Lib	7705	13.0%
Oth	1773	2.9%	Oth	1679	2.8%
Maj	11238	19.1%	Maj	11591	19.6%

[iain]

A little surprised you don't have the LDs over 5% in either M/M or L/G, but do in Leith.

[iain]

As has been pointed out before, the Highland council area counted by parliamentary constituency, and it has been said from those at the count that Ross, Skye & Lochaber voted 'Yes' to independence.

[iain]

From @rdl

I believe he also has some info on how the INBS wards voted in the GE.

[Deleted]

Mar 24, 2016 22:45:55 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Mar 24, 2016 22:28:20 GMT iain said:

From @rdl

I believe he also has some info on how the INBS wards voted in the GE.

Yes I am familiar, although I've not seen the INBS figures (which would be a massive help ).

According to RDL the No's won in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey and in Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross, but that the Yes vote was stronger in areas such as Inverness and Wick. Taking all this (plus two local by-elections held in 2015) into consideration I find it very difficult to envisage a Yes vote in Ross, Skye & Lochaber. The trends seem to imply strong No votes touching on 60% throughout rural parts of Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross and in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey, areas with notably similar demographics to that of northern Ross, Skye & Lochaber. The mathematics just do not work, unless the Yes camp managed to deliver a strong show in Black Isle, Dingwall and Wester Ross outside of the general trend (at approx. 58% in Black Isle, 55% in Dingwall and 55% in Wester Ross), or managed to get over 60% of the vote in Skye at the referendum.

There are no official figures or reliable sources to confirm a Yes vote in RSL.

A couple of things I would highlight at the outside: the overall Highland result was 47:53 for No and Highland politics is notoriously localised.

The only reason I am sure that Yes won RSL is that the Highland count was conducted by constituency and I stood and counted the bundles for each constituency once the counting was over and we were waiting for the formal declaration. The sampling I have (which I have adjusted slightly to account for a lot of inexperienced and overly-excited Yes samplers!) had Yes winning Lochaber 53:47 and Skye 51:49. Conversely, it has No winning the Black Isle 44:56 and Wester Ross 45:55. On those figures, you could see how Yes could win RSL.

In the rest of the Highlands, the highest No votes were in the Thurso (60%), East Sutherland & Edderton (59%), Badenoch & Strathspey (59%), and Nairn (57%) wards. (I don't have sampling for Landward Caithness, but it would almost certainly be up there too.)

[greatkingrat]

Can you make the maps smaller, they really don't need to be so big.

[bolbridge]

I thought Alan Reid carried one of the Helensburgh wards?

[iain]

Apr 24, 2016 11:42:30 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Apr 24, 2016 11:15:51 GMT bolbridge said:

I thought Alan Reid carried one of the Helensburgh wards?

My preliminaries suggested that but after doing my notional here I am confident that all wards went to the SNP. The SNP vote was lower around the Helensburgh and Lomond portion of the seat, although a stronger Conservative-Labour challenge deprived Alan Reid of taking any wards. The Liberal Democrats did better around Argyll than I had anticipated. 

I am not disputing it, but what particularly has led you to that conclusion?

[rocky]

Jun 20, 2015 11:28:35 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Lab Gain from Con (10)

Birmingham: Bourneville, Edgbaston, Harborne
Dudley: Upper Gornal & Woodsetton
Sandwell: Charlemont & Grove Vale, Wednesbury North
Walsall: St Matthews
Wolverhampton: Bushbury North, Wednesfield North, Wednesfield South

Lab Gain from Lib Dem (6)

Birmingham: Acocks Green, Moseley & Kings Heath, Perry Barr, Selly Oak, South Yardley, Stechfod & Yardley North

Lab Gain from Respect (1)

Birmingham: Sparkbrook

Con Gain from Lib Dem (4)

Solihull: Lyndon, Olton, Shirley South, Shirley West

Con Gain from Lab (2)

Birmingham: Northfield
Coventry: Westwood

There are a couple of mistakes in here. The council actually released the actual ward by ward results for general election in 2010 and 2015 in response to an FOI.

[iain]

Apr 24, 2016 22:18:02 GMT rocky said:

Jun 20, 2015 11:28:35 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Lab Gain from Con (10)

Birmingham: Bourneville, Edgbaston, Harborne
Dudley: Upper Gornal & Woodsetton
Sandwell: Charlemont & Grove Vale, Wednesbury North
Walsall: St Matthews
Wolverhampton: Bushbury North, Wednesfield North, Wednesfield South

Lab Gain from Lib Dem (6)

Birmingham: Acocks Green, Moseley & Kings Heath, Perry Barr, Selly Oak, South Yardley, Stechfod & Yardley North

Lab Gain from Respect (1)

Birmingham: Sparkbrook

Con Gain from Lib Dem (4)

Solihull: Lyndon, Olton, Shirley South, Shirley West

Con Gain from Lab (2)

Birmingham: Northfield
Coventry: Westwood

There are a couple of mistakes in here. The council actually released the actual ward by ward results for general election in 2010 and 2015 in response to an FOI.

Which council?

[rocky]

My mistake Birmingham City Council

[Pete Whitehead]

Why don't you tell us what the results were then?

[rocky]

Apologies peter didn't mean to sound rude.

From memory the tory's only won the four sutton wards plus erdington in either 2010 or 2015, winning all 5 in both. Lib dem won Sheldon in both ,they came third in hall green in 2010. Can't remember acocks green and Stechford afraid.

[Dalek]

May 27, 2015 16:55:11 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

[Dalek]

May 27, 2015 16:51:41 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Changes from 2010

Lab Gain from Con (21)

Redbridge: Aldborough, Barkingside, Clayhall, Hainault, Wanstead.
Waltham Forest: Hale End & Highams Park
Tower Hamlets: Blackwall & Cubitt Town, Millwall
Hammersmith & Fulham: North End
Barnet: Coppetts
Brent: Northwick Park
Ealing: Cleveland
Hillingdon: West Drayton
Hounslow: Bedfont, Feltham North, Feltham West, Hanworth, Hounslow South.
Wandsworth: Roehampton & Putney Heath
Croydon: Waddon
Bromley: Clock House

Lab Gain from LD (23)

Haringey: Alexandra, Crouch End, Fortis Green, Hornsey, Muswell Hill, Stroud Green.
Camden: West End
Brent: Dollis Hill, Dudden Hill, Kensal Green, Mapesbury, Willesden Green
Lambeth: St Leonards, Streatham Hill, Streatham Wells
Southwark: Cathedrals, Chaucer, East Dulwich, East Walworth, Grange, Newington, Riverside, South Bermondsey

Con Gain from LD (22)

Camden: Fortune Green
Brent: Brondesbury Park
Ealing: Southfield
Richmond: Ham & Petersham, Hampton, Hampton North, Heathfield, Kew, North Richmond, South Twickenham, Twickenham Riverside, Whitton
Kingston: Alexandra, Berrylands, Beverley, Canbury, Chessington North, Chessington South, St Marks, Surbiton Hill
Sutton: Stonecot
Southwark: Village

Con Gain from Lab (2)

Harrow: Kenton West
Wandsworth: Queenstown

UKIP Gain from Con (3)

Havering: Goosehays, Rainham & Werrington, South Hornchurch

11 Boroughs saw no wards changing hands. Barking, Newham, Hackney, Islington and Lewisham all remained 100% Labour while Enfield, Merton, Greenwich, Bexley, Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster had the same mix of Conservative and Labour wards as before

Is the patch of yellow in North London Highgate Ward in Haringey?

[finsobruce]

Jul 16, 2016 16:42:07 GMT Dalek said:

May 27, 2015 16:51:41 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Changes from 2010

Lab Gain from Con (21)

Redbridge: Aldborough, Barkingside, Clayhall, Hainault, Wanstead.
Waltham Forest: Hale End & Highams Park
Tower Hamlets: Blackwall & Cubitt Town, Millwall
Hammersmith & Fulham: North End
Barnet: Coppetts
Brent: Northwick Park
Ealing: Cleveland
Hillingdon: West Drayton
Hounslow: Bedfont, Feltham North, Feltham West, Hanworth, Hounslow South.
Wandsworth: Roehampton & Putney Heath
Croydon: Waddon
Bromley: Clock House

Lab Gain from LD (23)

Haringey: Alexandra, Crouch End, Fortis Green, Hornsey, Muswell Hill, Stroud Green.
Camden: West End
Brent: Dollis Hill, Dudden Hill, Kensal Green, Mapesbury, Willesden Green
Lambeth: St Leonards, Streatham Hill, Streatham Wells
Southwark: Cathedrals, Chaucer, East Dulwich, East Walworth, Grange, Newington, Riverside, South Bermondsey

Con Gain from LD (22)

Camden: Fortune Green
Brent: Brondesbury Park
Ealing: Southfield
Richmond: Ham & Petersham, Hampton, Hampton North, Heathfield, Kew, North Richmond, South Twickenham, Twickenham Riverside, Whitton
Kingston: Alexandra, Berrylands, Beverley, Canbury, Chessington North, Chessington South, St Marks, Surbiton Hill
Sutton: Stonecot
Southwark: Village

Con Gain from Lab (2)

Harrow: Kenton West
Wandsworth: Queenstown

UKIP Gain from Con (3)

Havering: Goosehays, Rainham & Werrington, South Hornchurch

11 Boroughs saw no wards changing hands. Barking, Newham, Hackney, Islington and Lewisham all remained 100% Labour while Enfield, Merton, Greenwich, Bexley, Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster had the same mix of Conservative and Labour wards as before

Is the patch of yellow in North London Highgate Ward in Haringey?

I think it is. Only ward in Haringey that currently has 3 Lib Dem councillors.

[Pete Whitehead]

[maxque]

I assume yellow is a Burnley localist party?

[lancastrian]

Dec 19, 2016 8:54:01 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Not convinced on Sudell (Darwen). It's a very deprived ward (mostly in the 10% most deprived areas in the country), by some distance the most deprived in Rossendale & Darwen. The Tories haven't got anywhere for ages in local elections, to the extent of not standing several times, only winning it in 1982, and even then it was their worst ward in Darwen.

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 20, 2016 23:29:41 GMT lancastrian said:

Dec 19, 2016 8:54:01 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Not convinced on Sudell (Darwen). It's a very deprived ward (mostly in the 10% most deprived areas in the country), by some distance the most deprived in Rossendale & Darwen. The Tories haven't got anywhere for ages in local elections, to the extent of not standing several times, only winning it in 1982, and even then it was their worst ward in Darwen.

I see what you mean. This is one of those difficult areas where you have a concentration of Lib Dem support in a couple of wards but which clearly didn't carry across at all into the general election result (LDs got less than 2% here) and because the Labour vote was mostly already accounted for the slack gets taken up by the Tories. I usually try and mitigate this in some way but haven't done so sufficiently here (even so it is only narrowly Tory over Labour) and looking back at the base data it doesn;t look credible that the Tories would carry this ward. I get a similar problem in Pendle to some extent with the Tories ending up with a high % vote in Colne, but there the Lib Dem vote is dispersed across more wards so the effect is not as great and in any case given the racial polarisation in Pendle, which isn't a factor in R&D, it does at least seem credible that the Conservatives were strongly ahead throughout Colne.
I'll have another look at these figures. This is the main reason for posting these things here so those with local knowledge can suggest corrections to what look like glaring errors (as iain did wrg to Cheltenham)