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Post by finsobruce on Oct 30, 2015 13:17:21 GMT
obviously it would be good if Labour won, but if the ward ended up being represented by Cllr Fear and Cllr Decent I think we all might give a small psephological cheer.  |
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 30, 2015 18:12:13 GMT
There are thought to be 22 by-elections for 23 seats during November with one of the contests in Aberdeenshire being for 2 seats. There are already 9 by-elections for 10 seats called in December with one for 2 seats in Bournemouth following an election petition. In addition there are another 13 known vacancies, 11 in England and 1 each in Scotland and Wales, where there is as yet no date.
5th November - 2 for 3 seats
Aberdeenshire UA, Huntly, Strathbogie & Howe of Alford - SNP died and Liberal Democrat resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Libertarian
Torbay UA, Clifton with Maidenway - Liberal Democrat died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
12th November - 4
Bridgend UA, Ogmore Vale - Independent resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, Plaid Cymru, UKIP, Ind
Conwy UA, Eglwysbach - Plaid Cymru resigned - 2 candidates: Con, Plaid Cymru
Dorset CC, Rodwell - Labour resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Shropshire UA, Belle Vue - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
19th November - 7
Ashford BC, Aylesford Green - Labour resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green, Ashford Independent
Carmarthen UA, Kidwelly - Labour died - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, Plaid Cymru,People First, 2 x Ind
Gwynedd UA, Dewi - Plaid Cymru resigned - 3 candidates: Lab, LD, Plaid Cymru
Gwynedd UA, Llanaelhaern - Llais Gwynedd resigned - 3 candidates: Plaid Cymru, Llais Gwynedd, Ind
Norfolk CC, South Smallburgh - Liberal Democrat resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Norfolk CC, Watton - UKIP resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, Green, Ind
Surrey CC, Epsom West - Liberal Democrat resigned 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green, Resident
26th November - 9
Ashfield DC, Selston - Selston Parish Independent resigned- 5 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Selston Parish Ind, Ind
Fife UA, Dunfermline North - SNP resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, UKIP, Green
Fife UA, Rosyth - SNP resigned (now MP for Dunfermline & West Fife) - 7 candidates: Con Lab, LD, SNP, UKIP, Green, Ind
Gwynedd UA, Pwllheli South - Llais Gwynedd died - 4 candidates: Plaid Cymru, Llais Gwynedd. Ind, No Description
Lancaster DC, Carnforth & Millhead - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Newport UA, Bettws - Independent resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, 2 x Ind
Nottinghamshire CC, Selston - Selston Area Independent resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Selston Parish Ind, Ind
Rochford DC, Rochford - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
Wiltshire UA, St Edmund & Milford - Liberal Democrat resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Ind
3rd December - 5
Guildford BC, Ash South & Tongham - Conservative resigned
Malvern Hills DC, Teme Valley - Conservative died
Newham LB, Boleyan - Labour died
Shropshire UA, Meole - Conservative resigned
South Kesteven DC, Belvoir - Conservative resigned
10th December - 4 for 5 seats
Bournemouth UA, Kinson South - 2 Conservative disqualified following election petition
Fylde BC, Clifton - Conservative resigned
Huntingdonshire DC, Huntingdon East - UKIP resigned
South Lanarkshire, Blantyre - Labour died
Known vacancies in England - 11
Aylesbury Vale DC, Grendon Underwood & Brill - Conservative died 11th October
Bolton MB, Crompton - Labour died 9th October
Cornwall UA, Launceston Central - Liberal Democrat sitting as an Independent resigned around 7th October
Coventry MB, Lower Stoke - Labour died 14th October
East Herts, Hertford Heath - Conservative resigned around 28th October
Harborough DC, Market Harborough Logan - Liberal Democrat died 2nd October
Spelthorne BC, Shepperton Town - Conservative died 5th October
St Helens MB, Thatto Heath - Labour died 16th September
Welwyn & Hatfield BC, Northaw & Cuffley - Conservative died 14th September
Wolverhampton MB, Bilston East - Labour died around 6th October
Worcestershire CC, Stourport-on-Severn - Health Concern died 28th October
Known vacancies in Scotland - 1
South Lanarkshire UA, Hamilton North & East - SNP died 21st October
Known vacancies in Wales - 1
Conwy UA, Gogarth - Conservative resigned around 28th October after becoming Assembly Member
Potential vacancies under "6 month" rule
North East Lincolnshire UA, East Marsh - UKIP impending resignation on 30th November
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 30, 2015 19:54:25 GMT
Sad news of the sudden death earlier today of Dan Filson, Labour councillor for Kensal Green ward in Brent.
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 30, 2015 20:40:15 GMT
obviously it would be good if Labour won, but if the ward ended up being represented by Cllr Fear and Cllr Decent I think we all might give a small psephological cheer. Although I have only read the newspaper article rather than the full judgement, I am a little perplexed by this decision. The relevant declared votes last May are: Leading candidate (UKIP) 1,224 votes - declared elected Second candidate (Conservative) 1,188 - announced elected Third candidate (Conservative) 1,147 - announced elected Fourth candidate (Labour) 1,083 Fifth candidate (Labour) 951 Sixth candidate (Conservative) 919 There were 3 other candidates with fewer votes. The newspaper says that the leading candidate remains elected as the potentially lost votes were not sufficient to over turn his election. The number of potentially lost votes was 115 so the fourth candidate could not have come top of the poll, as the leading candidate was 141 ahead of the fourth candidate. This is the reason given why the leading candidate remains elected whilst the second candidate, who was 105 votes ahead the fourth, and the third candidate, 64 votes ahead, have had their elections voided. It is possible both the second and third candidates could have overtaken the leading candidate, being respectively 36 and 77 votes behind without the lost votes. Why is the leading candidate declared elected when the second and third could have polled more votes in the circumstances. Moreover the fifth candidate could not have been elected even with all 115 votes with none to the second and third candidates as they were at least 196 votes ahead. So if all the votes had been properly allocated the candidates elected would have been either one UKIP and 2 Conservative or 1 UKIP, 1 Conservative and 1 Labour. I cannot see any other possibility. It cannot be definitely said that, in the extreme, candidate 2 would have failed to be elected. But the high likelihood a further 115 votes would not have seen him come fourth behind not only his party colleague but also the highest placed Labour candidate. Depending on the by-election candidates / result either the two Conservatives will be elected (no problem) or one Conservative and one other, presumably Labour, (again no problem) or alternatively no Conservatives are elected (contrary to what was the will of the electorate in May). One solution would be for all the parties to agree to just 3 candidates at the by-election, the two Conservatives and the highest place Labour candidate who came fourth. The electorate could then decide who they wish to represent them producing a result consistent with the May poll. |
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Post by andrewteale on Oct 30, 2015 22:13:37 GMT
The mistakes by the council mean it's not possible to tell with certainty what the will of the electorate was in May.
There is no doubt that the UKIP candidate was elected because his majority is more than the number of lost votes. There is doubt over the election of the two Conservative councillors because their majority is less than the number of lost votes. As you correctly point out, at least one of the two Conservative councillors must have been duly elected; but since it's not possible to say which one the only course of action is to void both their elections.
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peterl
Green
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Post by peterl on Oct 30, 2015 22:24:39 GMT
UKIP would be very unlikely to be a party to such an agreement. Based on May's result, winning another seat here is a possibility with a strong candidate and a good campaign.
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 30, 2015 22:52:00 GMT
The mistakes by the council mean it's not possible to tell with certainty what the will of the electorate was in May. There is no doubt that the UKIP candidate was elected because his majority is more than the number of lost votes. There is doubt over the election of the two Conservative councillors because their majority is less than the number of lost votes. As you correctly point out, at least one of the two Conservative councillors must have been duly elected; but since it's not possible to say which one the only course of action is to void both their elections. So a duly elected councillor has his election voided because we do not know which one of the two - although we can have a pretty good guess. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 31, 2015 10:57:36 GMT
Sad news of the sudden death earlier today of Dan Filson, Labour councillor for Kensal Green ward in Brent. Wondered where I had seen his name before, then remembered that he had been a regular commenter (and occasional contributor?) at LabourList. RIP. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 4, 2015 20:52:27 GMT
There are thought to be 22 by-elections for 23 seats during November with one of the contests in Aberdeenshire being for 2 seats. There are already 9 by-elections for 10 seats called in December with one for 2 seats in Bournemouth following an election petition. In addition there are another 13 known vacancies, 11 in England and 1 each in Scotland and Wales, where there is as yet no date. Known vacancies in England - 11Aylesbury Vale DC, Grendon Underwood & Brill - Conservative died 11th October Bolton MB, Crompton - Labour died 9th October Cornwall UA, Launceston Central - Liberal Democrat sitting as an Independent resigned around 7th October Coventry MB, Lower Stoke - Labour died 14th October East Herts, Hertford East - Conservative resigned around 28th October It's Hertford Heath |
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Post by greenhert on Nov 4, 2015 20:59:27 GMT
And by the way, there is no such ward as 'Hertford East', only a railway station with that name.
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Post by marksenior on Nov 6, 2015 14:23:20 GMT
Davida Allen , Lib Dem councillor for Amersham Town ward on Chiltern DC has sadly died .
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 6, 2015 19:08:04 GMT
There are 20 by-elections during the rest of November along with 12 by-elections for 13 seats in the first two weeks (of three) in December with one for 2 seats in Bournemouth following an election petition. In addition there are another 14 known vacancies, 12 in England and 1 each in Scotland and Wales, where there is as yet no date.
12th November - 4
Bridgend UA, Ogmore Vale - Independent resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, Plaid Cymru, UKIP, Ind
Conwy UA, Eglwysbach - Plaid Cymru resigned - 2 candidates: Con, Plaid Cymru
Dorset CC, Rodwell - Labour resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Shropshire UA, Belle Vue - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
19th November - 7
Ashford BC, Aylesford Green - Labour resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green, Ashford Independent
Carmarthen UA, Kidwelly - Labour died - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, Plaid Cymru, People First, 2 x Ind
Gwynedd UA, Dewi - Plaid Cymru resigned - 3 candidates: Lab, LD, Plaid Cymru
Gwynedd UA, Llanaelhaern - Llais Gwynedd resigned - 3 candidates: Plaid Cymru, Llais Gwynedd, Ind
Norfolk CC, South Smallburgh - Liberal Democrat resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Norfolk CC, Watton - UKIP resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, Green, Ind
Surrey CC, Epsom West - Liberal Democrat resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green, Resident
26th November - 9
Ashfield DC, Selston - Selston Parish Independent resigned- 5 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Selston Parish Ind, Ind
Fife UA, Dunfermline North - SNP resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, UKIP, Green
Fife UA, Rosyth - SNP resigned (now MP for Dunfermline & West Fife) - 7 candidates: Con Lab, LD, SNP, UKIP, Green, Ind
Gwynedd UA, Pwllheli South - Llais Gwynedd died - 4 candidates: Plaid Cymru, Llais Gwynedd. Ind, No Description
Lancaster DC, Carnforth & Millhead - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Newport UA, Bettws - Independent resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, 2 x Ind
Nottinghamshire CC, Selston - Selston Area Independent resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Selston Parish Ind, Ind
Rochford DC, Rochford - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
Wiltshire UA, St Edmund & Milford - Liberal Democrat resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Ind
3rd December - 5
Guildford BC, Ash South & Tongham - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Guildford Greenbelt Group
Malvern Hills DC, Teme Valley - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
Newham LB, Boleyan - Labour died - 6 candidates: Con, Lb, LD, UKIP, Green, Ind
Shropshire UA, Meole - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
South Kesteven DC, Belvoir - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Ind
10th December - 7 for 8 seats
Bournemouth UA, Kinson South - 2 Conservative disqualified following election petition
Fylde BC, Clifton - Conservative resigned
Harborough DC, Market Harborough Logan - Liberal Democrat died
Huntingdonshire DC, Huntingdon East - UKIP resigned
North East Derbyshire DC, Coal Aston - Conservative resigned
North East Derbyshire DC, Holmwood & Heath - Labour died
South Lanarkshire, Blantyre - Labour died
Known vacancies in England - 12
Aylesbury Vale DC, Grendon Underwood & Brill - Conservative died 11th October
Brent LB, Kensal Green - Labour died 31st October
Bolton MB, Crompton - Labour died 9th October
Chiltern DC, Amersham Town - Liberal Democrat died around 5th November
Cornwall UA, Launceston Central - Liberal Democrat sitting as an Independent resigned around 7th October
Coventry MB, Lower Stoke - Labour died 14th October
East Herts, Hertford Heath - Conservative resigned around 28th October
Spelthorne BC, Shepperton Town - Conservative died 5th October
St Helens MB, Thatto Heath - Labour died 16th September
Welwyn & Hatfield BC, Northaw & Cuffley - Conservative died 14th September
Wolverhampton MB, Bilston East - Labour died around 6th October
Worcestershire CC, Stourport-on-Severn - Health Concern died 28th October
Known vacancies in Scotland - 1
South Lanarkshire UA, Hamilton North & East - SNP died 21st October
Known vacancies in Wales - 1
Conwy UA, Gogarth - Conservative resigned around 28th October after becoming Assembly Member
Potential vacancies under "6 month" rule
North East Lincolnshire UA, East Marsh - UKIP impending resignation on 30th November
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Post by Robert on Nov 7, 2015 8:55:54 GMT
23 seats up in November (including last Thursday) and not one Tory vacancy.
(Could someone please change my name to Robert, ensure it is in blue and have Conservative or Tory as the party affiliation. Thanks) |
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Post by Robert on Nov 7, 2015 9:04:15 GMT
Think I need my glasses changed as well as my name!
Two of those are Tory vacancies (including one being fought by a friend). Still, a very low proportion. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2015 9:15:06 GMT
23 seats up in November (including last Thursday) and not one Tory vacancy.
(Could someone please change my name to Robert, ensure it is in blue and have Conservative or Tory as the party affiliation. Thanks) I'll tag AdminSTB - he can allocate you to your party group. You can change the way your name is displayed by clicking on your username, then Edit Profile, then Personal. You can then amend the field where it says "Display name", then click on Save Personal Settings. |
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Post by marksenior on Nov 11, 2015 7:43:25 GMT
Phil Evans , Conservative councillor for Derwent ward on Ryedale DC has resigned . By election on 17th December .
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Post by marksenior on Nov 11, 2015 12:33:44 GMT
Steve O'Brian , Conservative councillor for Bushey North on Herts CC has sadly died
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 11, 2015 15:54:43 GMT
I'm sorry to hear that. I voted for him when he was first elected to that position in 2009 (although I knew his LIb Dem opponent personally (who also died quite recently as it happens)).
He started off the Tory revival in this part of Bushey by first winning the district ward of Bushey North following the retirement of Michael Colne in 2008 (which was also a necessary prerequisute for gaining the county seat) basically ending 40 years of Liberal dominance in the area.
He'd previously been a councillor for Leggats ward in Watford where he achieved the distinction of being elected three years running (in a far from naturally Tory area ) in 1998, 1999 and 2000.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Nov 11, 2015 22:17:12 GMT
How someone would be elected 3 years in a row?
By-election, normal one, re-warding?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 11, 2015 22:48:28 GMT
He won it in 1998 in a single-member election at the ordinary council elections.
In 1999 there was an all-out election with rewarding, and he came third so was elected for a single year term.
In 2000 he retained his seat in a single-member election.
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