Panelbase

[Deleted]

I would feel sorry for Ed Miliband if Labour do better in terms of vote share than two years ago. Though it's not vote shares that count so much; it's bums on seats.

Will the polling organisations have the sense to factor in UKIP and Green absences?

[pragmaticidealist]

May 16, 2017 18:21:49 GMT swanarcadian said:

I would feel sorry for Ed Miliband if Labour do better in terms of vote share than two years ago. Though it's not vote shares that count so much; it's bums on seats.

Will the polling organisations have the sense to factor in UKIP and Green absences?

Looking at the polling for the February 1974 election, the Liberals were overestimated by several percentage points.

ukpollingreport.co.uk/vote-intention-1970-oct1974

I wonder whether that was down to the pollsters not accounting for quite a few Liberal absences in that election (the last one in which they did have a lot, in fact). 

[Lord Twaddleford]

My pessimism is leading me to believe that Labour's nationwide vote share will actually be closer to 25% than 30%, but at the same time it's not inconceivable that the Labour vote share could actually increase but yet the seat count decreases _{(bloody FPTP)}. However, what I definitely do not consider believeable is the Conservatives getting either 50% dead or coming within touching distance of that vote share, I think 45% of the vote is a more realistic upper limit.

[greenchristian]

May 16, 2017 18:21:49 GMT swanarcadian said:

Will the polling organisations have the sense to factor in UKIP and Green absences?

Polls are a snapshot of public opinion, not a prediction of what the actual result will be...

[Deleted]

May 16, 2017 20:05:23 GMT greenchristian said:

May 16, 2017 18:21:49 GMT swanarcadian said:

Will the polling organisations have the sense to factor in UKIP and Green absences?

Polls are a snapshot of public opinion, not a prediction of what the actual result will be...

Yes, but if you're going to ask "If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?" during an election campaign, surely it would be a nonsense to accept Green as an answer in swathes of Scotland now that we know they're only standing in three seats north of the border.

[manchesterman]

May 16, 2017 20:05:23 GMT greenchristian said:

May 16, 2017 18:21:49 GMT swanarcadian said:

Will the polling organisations have the sense to factor in UKIP and Green absences?

Polls are a snapshot of public opinion, not a prediction of what the actual result will be...

You are Tony King and I claim my tenner

[Devil Wincarnate]

The Graun reports a Panelbase poll landing shortly but I can't see any other mention.

[jollyroger93]

Apparently it has the cons on 48% and lab on 33%? This is a twitter rumour btw.

[Andrew_S]

"Sam Freedman‏ @samfr 20m20 minutes ago

Panelbase have released a poll from 19th-23rd May showing a 15 pt Tory lead

CON 48%
LAB 33%
LD 7%
UKIP 4%"

[thetop]

May 31, 2017 11:10:51 GMT Andrew_S said:

"Sam Freedman‏ @samfr 20m20 minutes ago

Panelbase have released a poll from 19th-23rd May showing a 15 pt Tory lead

CON 48% (+1)
LAB 33% (nc)
LD 7% (nc)
UKIP 4% (-1)

Changed added.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Hmmm...if there was only one pollster showing you with a commanding lead, you wouldn't want it to be Panelbase.

[Andrew_S]

May 31, 2017 11:40:18 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Hmmm...if there was only one pollster showing you with a commanding lead, you wouldn't want it to be Panelbase.

ICM are also showing a good lead for the Tories.

[Tony Otim]

Its also very old fieldwork. Does it really take over a week to get the results out.

[cogload]

You can't accuse them of herding now.

[thetop]

May 31, 2017 12:09:43 GMT Tony Otim said:

Its also very old fieldwork. Does it really take over a week to get the results out.

They withheld it because of the Manchester bombing. Significant methodological changes reported:-

We also saw a Panelbase poll today. This is not actually new – it is the poll that was in the field during the Manchester bombing last week, which Panelbase made the decision to withhold in the light of the tragedy. Topline figures are CON 48%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%. Fieldwork was back between the 19th and 23rd of May. I’ve not included changes as there are significant methodological changes here – Panelbase have tightened their turnout filter to only include people who say 10/10, and they reweight their voting intention question so the age matches the age profile of people who voted in 2015. As with other companies whose turnout model is based upon replicating the age profile of 2015 voters this has a substantial effect. Panelbase say without it their poll would have shown the lead narrowing by 6 points from their previous poll (implying they would otherwise be showing an eight point Tory lead on their old method!). Panelbase tabs are here.

Also:

In their comments Panelbase also say they will be releasing a new poll in the next day or two which again has the Tory lead falling.

All important direction of travel - no use having past polls to compare to, if they're using radically different measurements.

[Andrew_S]

Panelbase Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

Fieldwork 26 May - 01 Jun

[clyde1998]

Just done a Panelbase poll. Had standard Westminister VI question, Second Brexit referendum VI question, who would you prefer to form a government, which out of a Con/Lib and Lab/SNP coalition would you prefer.

Also some more interesting questions:

Which one of the following party leaders (May, Corbyn, Farron, Nuttall, Sturgeon, Wood) do you think is:
...the most charismatic leader?
...is the strongest leader?
...is the most annoying?
...has the best sense of humour?
...is most in favour of a more equal society?

It has been suggested that Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party form a ‘progressive alliance’ and agree not to field candidates against each other and, instead, unite to support the single candidate with the best chance of winning each seat. If there wasn’t a Liberal Democrat candidate standing in your constituency would you:
Vote for another party in the 'progressive alliance'
Vote Conservative
Vote for another party
Not vote
Don't Know

How are you going to follow the election results?
On BBC TV
On ITV TV
On Sky TV
On Channel 4's alternative coverage
On another TV channel
On online/through social media
I won't be following the election results

Thinking back to the 2015 election, what time did you stop watching the coverage on election night?
Before the exit poll results were released at 10pm
Sometime between 10pm and midnight
Sometime between midnight and 2am
Sometime between 2am and 4am
After 4am
Didn't watch any coverage on election night
Can't remember

What time will you start watching coverage on TV?
I'll be following throughout the day
I'll start watching during early evening (before 8pm)
I'll start watching in the late evening (between 8pm and 10pm)
I'll start watching late night (after 10pm) [sic]

How much time do you expect to spend watching TV coverage on June 8th / 9th?
Less than an hour
Between an hour and two hours
Between two and three hours
More than three hours

Who will you be with when you’re watching the coverage?
Alone
Just close family
The wider family
Friends
A mixture of friends and family

[Andrew_S]

Panelbase:

Con 44%
Lab 36%

Don't have other figures.

[Jack]

[The Bishop]

Post election Panelbase - Lab 46 Con 41 apparently, does anybody have the full figures?

Also May now has a minus 17 approval rating, Corbyn plus 17. Let's remember that just months ago, he was less popular IN LONDON than Paul Nuttall.