Panelbase

[Deleted]

Jun 25, 2017 9:14:01 GMT The Bishop said:

Post election Panelbase - Lab 46 Con 41 apparently, does anybody have the full figures?

Also May now has a minus 17 approval rating, Corbyn plus 17. Let's remember that just months ago, he was less popular IN LONDON than Paul Nuttall.

Lets wait for things to calm down shall we. Agaisnt a less shite tory leader hed go back to being viewed as the old trot he is.

[The Bishop]

Well, I think the argument things have shifted long term is quite strong - but I expect we shall find out sooner or later (quite possibly the former)

For the record, 46 per cent equals Labour's best rating in the Miliband era (MORI in late 2012) I think you have to go pre-Iraq war to get higher figures.

[pragmaticidealist]

Jun 25, 2017 9:54:49 GMT joe said:

Jun 25, 2017 9:14:01 GMT The Bishop said:

Post election Panelbase - Lab 46 Con 41 apparently, does anybody have the full figures?

Also May now has a minus 17 approval rating, Corbyn plus 17. Let's remember that just months ago, he was less popular IN LONDON than Paul Nuttall.

Lets wait for things to calm down shall we. Agaisnt a less shite tory leader hed go back to being viewed as the old trot he is.

After the events of the Kinnock era, true Trots wouldn't touch the Labour Party with a barge pole let alone lead it.  

[iolo]

It is a bit sad that the tories keep up this old-school McCarthyite stuff about 'Trots', though, isn't it! There have, thoughout, been SOME other honest people, though not many, in politics.

[manchesterman]

Jun 25, 2017 9:54:49 GMT joe said:

Jun 25, 2017 9:14:01 GMT The Bishop said:

Post election Panelbase - Lab 46 Con 41 apparently, does anybody have the full figures?

Also May now has a minus 17 approval rating, Corbyn plus 17. Let's remember that just months ago, he was less popular IN LONDON than Paul Nuttall.

Lets wait for things to calm down shall we. Agaisnt a less shite tory leader hed go back to being viewed as the old trot he is.

I think that the absolutely key thing for Labour now going forward is whether they can keep the "youth vote" engaged and by that I mean voting in at least the numbers they voted in June, if not more so.  If they can, then I think we are genuinely looking at a sea change.  If they cant, then - when the Tories elect a half-decent leader - the political normality will be resumed (which of course means a Tory government in all but exceptional circumstances)

[clyde1998]

Lib Dems are on 6% in the poll; others 7%.

[curiousliberal]

Jun 25, 2017 17:17:36 GMT clyde1998 said:

Lib Dems are on 6% in the poll; others 7%.

Well, we're leaderless at the moment, and the 'others' figure includes PC, the Greens, UKIP and the SNP.

The Lab/Con figures look quite similar to Survation's ones, though. A cynical part of me wonders whether pollsters, to improve their "accuracy", will simply start herding around Survation now.

[The Bishop]

Jun 25, 2017 17:02:01 GMT manchesterman said:

Jun 25, 2017 9:54:49 GMT joe said:

Lets wait for things to calm down shall we. Agaisnt a less shite tory leader hed go back to being viewed as the old trot he is.

I think that the absolutely key thing for Labour now going forward is whether they can keep the "youth vote" engaged and by that I mean voting in at least the numbers they voted in June, if not more so.  If they can, then I think we are genuinely looking at a sea change.  If they cant, then - when the Tories elect a half-decent leader - the political normality will be resumed (which of course means a Tory government in all but exceptional circumstances)

Labour didn't get 41% of the GB vote earlier this month solely or even mainly because of young voters.

And if you believe YouGov "only" 58% of them actually turned out - well up on 2015 but still plenty of room for further improvement.

[manchesterman]

Jun 25, 2017 17:25:51 GMT The Bishop said:

Jun 25, 2017 17:02:01 GMT manchesterman said:

I think that the absolutely key thing for Labour now going forward is whether they can keep the "youth vote" engaged and by that I mean voting in at least the numbers they voted in June, if not more so.  If they can, then I think we are genuinely looking at a sea change.  If they cant, then - when the Tories elect a half-decent leader - the political normality will be resumed (which of course means a Tory government in all but exceptional circumstances)

Labour didn't get 41% of the GB vote earlier this month solely or even mainly because of young voters.

And if you believe YouGov "only" 58% of them actually turned out - well up on 2015 but still plenty of room for further improvement.

That's why I said " at least the numbers that voted in June" Bish. Ideally they would want it to get up to the % turnout that the Tories get from seniors - then it would get really interesting. 

Of course I wasn't suggesting that Labour's successful increase in vote share was solely down to youth, but I did see a graphic somewhere on here which showed the massive difference between voting intentions of the under-35s and the over-65s.  It was a far greater divide between the parties than the traditional factors (class, wealth etc.) 

[Merseymike]

Panelbase has not traditionally been a pollster whose results have favoured Labour. So this is interesting.

[maxque]

Jun 25, 2017 9:54:49 GMT joe said:

Jun 25, 2017 9:14:01 GMT The Bishop said:

Post election Panelbase - Lab 46 Con 41 apparently, does anybody have the full figures?

Also May now has a minus 17 approval rating, Corbyn plus 17. Let's remember that just months ago, he was less popular IN LONDON than Paul Nuttall.

Lets wait for things to calm down shall we. Agaisnt a less shite tory leader hed go back to being viewed as the old trot he is.

Well, your party seems very keen on keeping her.

[Jack]

Jun 25, 2017 21:20:17 GMT maxque said:

Jun 25, 2017 9:54:49 GMT joe said:

Lets wait for things to calm down shall we. Agaisnt a less shite tory leader hed go back to being viewed as the old trot he is.

Well, your party seems very keen on keeping her.

Only because a leadership election is the last thing we need right now.

[Tony Otim]

Jun 25, 2017 22:47:21 GMT Jack said:

Jun 25, 2017 21:20:17 GMT maxque said:

Well, your party seems very keen on keeping her.

Only because a leadership election is the last thing we need right now.

Well that and the rather striking absence of a viable alternative.

[tonygreaves]

The more polls there are like this, the more Labour would like an early election and the less likely it is that there will be one. I wonder how long it will take for the rather ridiculous Corbyn bubble to burst?

[clyde1998]

For Scottish Independence Foundation. I think this is the first GB-wide Panelbase poll this year.

Westminster voting intentions (GB-wide, Panelbase):
Lab 40%
Con 40%
Lib 8%
UKIP 5%
SNP 4%
Grn 3%
Plaid 1%

EU referendum vote (GB-wide):
Remain 53%
Leave 47%

Reposting the Scottish poll by Panelbase for the same organisation here too:

Westminster voting intention (Scotland only):
SNP 37% (-1)
Con 28% (+1)
Lab 25% (+1)
Lib 7% (+1)
Grn 2% (n/c)
UKIP 2% (-1)

EU referendum vote (Scotland only):
Remain 64% (+1)
Leave 36% (-1)

The Electoral Calculus predictor gives the following seat projection:
Con 294 (-24)
Lab 279 (+17)
SNP 39 (+4)
Lib 16 (+4)
Plaid 3 (-1)
Grn 1 (n/c)

[clyde1998]

Nov 16, 2018 2:36:33 GMT Andrew_S said:

Nov 16, 2018 2:34:00 GMT clyde1998 said:

For Scottish Independence Foundation. I think this is the first GB-wide Panelbase poll this year.

Westminster voting intentions (GB-wide, Panelbase):
Lab 40%
Con 40%
Lib 8%
UKIP 5%
SNP 4%
Grn 3%
Plaid 1%

EU referendum vote (GB-wide):
Remain 53%
Leave 47%

Reposting the Scottish poll by Panelbase for the same organisation here too:

Westminster voting intention (Scotland only):
SNP 37% (-1)
Con 28% (+1)
Lab 25% (+1)
Lib 7% (+1)
Grn 2% (n/c)
UKIP 2% (-1)

EU referendum vote (Scotland only):
Remain 64% (+1)
Leave 36% (-1)

The Electoral Calculus predictor gives the following seat projection:
Con 294 (-24)
Lab 279 (+17)
SNP 39 (+4)
Lib 16 (+4)
Plaid 3 (-1)
Grn 1 (n/c)

Difficult to get one's head around the idea that the Tories are ahead of Labour in Scotland but not in England.

I think it just shows how much politics in Scotland has changed in the past few years - nationalism vs unionism having, largely, replaced left vs right.

There was at least one poll in Scotland before the last general election was called that put Labour on 14% - I think they were polling double that in England at the time, despite being miles behind the Tories in the polls.

[The Bishop]

I think SLab were actually at 13% with one pollster when the GE was called, though that does show they gained majorly in Scotland during the campaign as well as England.

[Deleted]

Nov 16, 2018 2:36:33 GMT Andrew_S said:

Nov 16, 2018 2:34:00 GMT clyde1998 said:

For Scottish Independence Foundation. I think this is the first GB-wide Panelbase poll this year.

Westminster voting intentions (GB-wide, Panelbase):
Lab 40%
Con 40%
Lib 8%
UKIP 5%
SNP 4%
Grn 3%
Plaid 1%

EU referendum vote (GB-wide):
Remain 53%
Leave 47%

Reposting the Scottish poll by Panelbase for the same organisation here too:

Westminster voting intention (Scotland only):
SNP 37% (-1)
Con 28% (+1)
Lab 25% (+1)
Lib 7% (+1)
Grn 2% (n/c)
UKIP 2% (-1)

EU referendum vote (Scotland only):
Remain 64% (+1)
Leave 36% (-1)

The Electoral Calculus predictor gives the following seat projection:
Con 294 (-24)
Lab 279 (+17)
SNP 39 (+4)
Lib 16 (+4)
Plaid 3 (-1)
Grn 1 (n/c)

Difficult to get one's head around the idea that the Tories are ahead of Labour in Scotland but not in England.

tbf Labour have made a lot of inroads in the South of England that theyve never managed previously; Adur, Worthing, Bournemouth, etc.

and the Tories recovery in the central belt was the story of the election last year

[Deleted]

Lab 36
Con 27
LDEM 8
UKIP 5
Grn 3
CUKs 4
Bxt 13

[AdminSTB]

May 1, 2019 18:34:34 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Lab 36
Con 27
LDEM 8
UKIP 5
Grn 3
CUKs 4
Bxt 13

[Inserts arrow from last place to third place]