Deleted
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Panelbase
May 1, 2019 18:44:12 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2019 18:44:12 GMT
Euros
Lab 33
Bxt 20
Con 20
LDEM 7
CUKs 5
UKIP 5
Grn 4
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on May 1, 2019 18:49:09 GMT
Euros Lab 33
Bxt 20Con 20 LDEM 7 CUKs 5 UKIP 5 Grn 4 Oh FFS. i have no idea whats going on anymore. Are Labour 6% behind the Brexit Party or actually 13% ahead? Who bloody knows? |
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Vibe
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Panelbase
May 1, 2019 18:57:12 GMT
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Post by Vibe on May 1, 2019 18:57:12 GMT
Euros Lab 33
Bxt 20Con 20 LDEM 7 CUKs 5 UKIP 5 Grn 4 Oh FFS. i have no idea whats going on anymore. Are Labour 6% behind the Brexit Party or actually 13% ahead? Who bloody knows? This poll defiantly favours the 2 main established parties over all the smaller parties. Some of these methodologies are going to get the result badly wrong. The problem is you can't test polls this far out from the election. |
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Post by curiousliberal on May 1, 2019 18:59:19 GMT
Euros Lab 33
Bxt 20Con 20 LDEM 7 CUKs 5 UKIP 5 Grn 4 Oh FFS. i have no idea whats going on anymore. Are Labour 6% behind the Brexit Party or actually 13% ahead? Who bloody knows? Relying on 2014 turnout models for this would be a risky move, and trying to extrapolate from them is a tough job, so the pollsters have my sympathy. It's quite possible that certain constituencies which wouldn't normally turn out to Europarl elections will do so in higher numbers by the end of what is likely to be a heated campaign, and it's also probable that we'd see something of a boost (but how much?) in constituencies which do turn out (namely, UKIP/BREX voters) as well. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 1, 2019 19:01:40 GMT
Oh FFS. i have no idea whats going on anymore. Are Labour 6% behind the Brexit Party or actually 13% ahead? Who bloody knows? , and trying to extrapolate from them is a tough job, so the pollsters have my sympathy. It's quite possible that certain constituencies which wouldn't normally turn out to Europarl elections will do so in higher numbers by the end of what is likely to be a heated campaign, and it's also probable that we'd see something of a boost (but how much?) in constituencies which do turn out (namely, UKIP/BREX voters) as well. I imagine this is petty crucial. Traditionally Euro turnout is lousy and skewed to the eurosceptics wanting to make a point. They will certainly be out in force this time but I wonder whether there will be a bigger turn out from the opposite tendency than usual. |
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Deleted
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Panelbase
May 1, 2019 19:11:45 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2019 19:11:45 GMT
Oh FFS. i have no idea whats going on anymore. Are Labour 6% behind the Brexit Party or actually 13% ahead? Who bloody knows? Relying on 2014 turnout models for this would be a risky move, and trying to extrapolate from them is a tough job, so the pollsters have my sympathy. It's quite possible that certain constituencies which wouldn't normally turn out to Europarl elections will do so in higher numbers by the end of what is likely to be a heated campaign, and it's also probable that we'd see something of a boost (but how much?) in constituencies which do turn out (namely, UKIP/BREX voters) as well. though 8m are unregistered |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on May 2, 2019 10:31:33 GMT
The only pollster currently putting BxP clearly ahead for the Euros is YouGov. Because they publish more frequently than the others, it is possible to lose sight of that.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 8, 2019 18:19:31 GMT
It's worth noting that the above figures for Panelbase (both for a GE and the Europarl elections) are from April 18-24.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2019 12:48:45 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2019 12:49:23 GMT
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261
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Post by polupolu on May 22, 2019 13:28:49 GMT
Interesting. Quite a lot of movement.
Also: Westminster changes all being in the same sort of direction as the Euro poll but about half the amount.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Panelbase
May 22, 2019 13:39:51 GMT
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Post by cogload on May 22, 2019 13:39:51 GMT
This is where I think we will end up. |
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Post by tonygreaves on May 22, 2019 14:21:55 GMT
Certainly not. This is an old poll in present circumstances taken over the past SEVEN days. Things are moving and still moving so it's almost certainly out of date. The main change now is in the collapse of the Labour vote so 25 is almost certainly wrong.
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Deleted
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May 22, 2019 14:31:35 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2019 14:31:35 GMT
Certainly not. This is an old poll in present circumstances taken over the past SEVEN days. Things are moving and still moving so it's almost certainly out of date. The main change now is in the collapse of the Labour vote so 25 is almost certainly wrong. it's the most recent bar yougov Also in line with Comres mrp |
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Post by tonygreaves on May 22, 2019 14:36:56 GMT
My point is not the time of release it is that it was taken over the last SEVEN days. That means me of it is a week old. (And, as we know...)
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Deleted
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Panelbase
May 22, 2019 14:47:54 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2019 14:47:54 GMT
My point is not the time of release it is that it was taken over the last SEVEN days. That means me of it is a week old. (And, as we know...) and I meant that the field work was up to the 21st just like yougov |
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Post by tonygreaves on May 22, 2019 15:21:54 GMT
You are clearly a fool of the kind I have met too often in my life of the Labour persuasion!
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Deleted
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May 22, 2019 15:24:08 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2019 15:24:08 GMT
You are clearly a fool of the kind I have met too often in my life of the Labour persuasion! and you're clearly quite an unkind person who does very little for your party. It's a shame as there are some very good members particularly on this forum |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 22, 2019 15:43:44 GMT
You are clearly a fool of the kind I have met too often in my life of the Labour persuasion! and you're clearly quite an unkind person who does very little for your party. It's a shame as there are some very good members particularly on this forum He got banned from Lib Dem voice for being abusive |
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 22, 2019 17:07:20 GMT
and you're clearly quite an unkind person who does very little for your party. It's a shame as there are some very good members particularly on this forum He got banned from Lib Dem voice for being abusive If you follow the link and go through the comments you will see suggestions that the LDV editorial team can be a little thin-skinned. |
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