Panelbase

[mrhell]

Mar 28, 2015 20:40:47 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Top Lib Dem denies the existence of Dachau?

OK, 'top' may be pushing it.

I think you need to withdraw this post. There is no (even pedantic) reading of Doktorb's post that would justify what you have written. As a PPC (as I think you still are) you require some sort of judgment.

[Pete Whitehead]

Lib Dems don't do irony evidently

[The Bishop]

"not one thing your (sic) written, outside punctuation, is correct"

EAL's post can arguably be justified on "pedantic" grounds, even if no other.

[mrhell]

I'm not arguing that EAL wadn't trying to be ironic. The problem is that there is no way even using irony that you could cone up with that comment.

I've realised that I meant that there was no way you have could claim that Doktorb disagreeing with all of Justin124's post meant he was denying the holocaust (even if you were trying to be ironic about it).

[seanf]

Comparing the Lib Dems to Von Papen and Hugenberg is well into tinfoil hat territory.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Mar 29, 2015 11:51:48 GMT mrhell said:

I'm not arguing that EAL wadn't trying to be ironic. The problem is that there is no way even using irony that you could cone up with that comment.

I've realised that I meant that there was no way you have could claim that Doktorb disagreeing with all of Justin124's post meant he was denying the holocaust (even if you were trying to be ironic about it).

I'll happily withdraw the comment if it caused offence. If it spares everyone's feelings, I will instead submit that doktorb is a tiresome idiot who should read what he writes before he posts it so we don't have to.

[gwynthegriff]

Mar 27, 2015 10:07:36 GMT Zardoz said:

Mark, I've been through this before! I supported the coalition - but left because of the enthusiasm the leadership showed for policies that I have spent all of my adult life campaigning against. As is absolutely clear, I will not be voting Lib Dem in the GE - but, as it approaches, I can also say that I am not going to be voting Labour or Tory either - definitely not UKIP - and less than 50% chance of voting Green. I'm hoping that I will have a minority candidate that I can support - otherwise I will probably spoil my ballot paper. I will be voting Lib Dem in the local elections - as I have done every year since I first voted in 1977 - including the years since 2012 when I left the party. I would also add that I voted Lib Dem in last year's Euro Election - but cannot in the GE as it would be an endorsement of the party's appalling record in government.

Well put Zardoz.

[gwynthegriff]

Mar 28, 2015 19:53:44 GMT greenchristian said:

Mar 28, 2015 17:10:55 GMT marksenior said:

Oh come along , no government is perfect and this one like all others has made mistakes but " suffering brought to the lives of the poor and vulnerable " is pure hyperbole born out of the highest political partisanship .

One of the most commonly cited reason for people using foodbanks is benefit changes. Disabled people have repeatedly claimed that changes to disability benefits is causing them additional hardship. You might claim that these people are unusual exceptions, or that this government has done things that will benefit them in the long run, meaning that the net impact on them is positive. But I don't see how you can say that coalition policies have not caused at least some poor and vulnerable people to suffer. At best, you can say that this sort of criticism is overblown exaggeration, but it's disingenuous to say that it's pure hyperbole.

All governments have been responsible for policies which have caused "at least some poor and vulnerable people to suffer". It's the nature of government.

[The Bishop]

The second GB poll by this lot, out a few days ago, had Lab and Con again tied on 33-33. Can't remember other figures now.

[Tony Otim]

Apr 5, 2015 12:01:07 GMT The Bishop said:

The second GB poll by this lot, out a few days ago, had Lab and Con again tied on 33-33. Can't remember other figures now.

UKIP 17
LD 7
Grn 5

[Richard Allen]

Mar 26, 2015 18:18:17 GMT joe said:

5%... Ouch

Its amazing how calm the lib dems are. Its fairly clear the recovery to 12 to 14% ish that many preficted jjust isnt happening.

1. I think most Lib Dems simply don't believe polls showing them as low as 5% and assume that there is a significant "shy Lib Dem" factor that the pollsters are not picking up on. I tend to think that they are correct.

2. Constituency polling is much better for the Lib Dems and suggests that figures like 5% are wrong or even if they are correct will not cause their strongholds to fall.

3. What is the point of panic? There is no sudden change of strategy that is going to turn things round. All they can do is continue to work as hard as possible to defend those seats that they still consider winnable.

4. The wimps and cowards have long since fled. The Lib Dem activists that have endured the last 4 years of electoral hell are the battle hardened veterans who will fight to the end and if it comes to it go down with the ship.

[tonygreaves]

Or refloat after this election.

[greenchristian]

Apr 5, 2015 13:31:30 GMT Richard Allen said:

Mar 26, 2015 18:18:17 GMT joe said:

5%... Ouch

Its amazing how calm the lib dems are. Its fairly clear the recovery to 12 to 14% ish that many preficted jjust isnt happening.

1. I think most Lib Dems simply don't believe polls showing them as low as 5% and assume that there is a significant "shy Lib Dem" factor that the pollsters are not picking up on. I tend to think that they are correct.

2. Constituency polling is much better for the Lib Dems and suggests that figures like 5% are wrong or even if they are correct will not cause their strongholds to fall.

3. What is the point of panic? There is no sudden change of strategy that is going to turn things round. All they can do is continue to work as hard as possible to defend those seats that they still consider winnable.

4. The wimps and cowards have long since fled. The Lib Dem activists that have endured the last 4 years of electoral hell are the battle hardened veterans who will fight to the end and if it comes to it go down with the ship.

I'm not convinced that there is a "shy Lib Dem" factor, though the "Lib Dem Constituency Effect" could pull their national vote share up a little.

There's probably a final category of Lib Dem to the ones you mention in point 4, the ones who are in denial about how badly their support has fallen..

Agreed on the rest of your analysis, though.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Constituency polling and YouGov seem much better for the LDs, but that might well be a temporary blip.  Panelbase I tend to trust slightly less than Plumbase and Buildbase when it comes to polling.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Panelbase GB poll: Surveyed on 07/04-09/04

Labour 37% (+4%)
Conservative 31% (-2%)
UK Independence Party 16% (-1%)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+1%)
Green Parties 4% (-1%)

[Deleted]

LAB 34% (-3%), CON 33% (+2%), UKIP 16% (NC), LD 8% (NC), GRN 4% (NC)

[mrhell]

I take we won't have another stupid front page article from The Guardian going on about "the day the polls changed ".

[Davıd Boothroyd]

It would have to be "The day of regression to the mean".

[Old Fashioned Leftie]

Latest

Lab 34 (nc)
Conservative 31 (-2)
LD 7 (-1)
UKIP 17 (+1)
Green 4 (nc)

[Pimpernal]

Apr 5, 2015 19:12:56 GMT tonygreaves said:

Or refloat after this election.

In Swale the lib dems are standing only 7 candidates - for the main part old stalwarts who held office over a decade ago and whose names always go forward as paper candidates.
Personally I think it will be easier to fight back if they do have few candidates to get abysmal ratings, and can make a more convincing comeback in 4/5 years time if they can boast a trebeling of candidate numbers and have a couple of wards they can make an effort to be relevant in.
It could be a long climb back, but it's easier to start with an improvement than a continued struggle...