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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2014 12:07:23 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2014 12:20:52 GMT
That Pavilion (only 1 L!) poll is very good news; I remain convinced that a lot of people will vote against the Greens in the council elections, but for Caroline in the constituency, and that split really shows up between the general voting intention and the constituency question. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 18, 2014 12:49:10 GMT
That Pavilion (only 1 L!) poll is very good news; I remain convinced that a lot of people will vote against the Greens in the council elections, but for Caroline in the constituency, and that split really shows up between the general voting intention and the constituency question. Beat me to it. Although I'll be surprised if the Labour vote stays that depressed. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 18, 2014 12:54:50 GMT
Not great polls for Labour overall, though they were mostly taken before the Autumn Statement which seems to have boosted them a bit (except in MORI)
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2014 13:08:32 GMT
That Pavilion (only 1 L!) poll is very good news; I remain convinced that a lot of people will vote against the Greens in the council elections, but for Caroline in the constituency, and that split really shows up between the general voting intention and the constituency question. Beat me to it. Although I'll be surprised if the Labour vote stays that depressed. I tend to agree - given there was 2.4% in it last time, I don't think there'll be 10 this time! Both parties are doing a lot of work in the constituency, so I can't think there'll be anyone who hasn't been contact multiple times, or who won't be energised to vote: turnout was 70 last time, I think it'll be higher next May. Having said that, I'd put money on Caroline to hold. I haven't asked anyone in Brighton, but I wonder how much work they're doing to squeeze the Tory vote against Labour? The LibDem vote is pretty much squeezed dry anyway. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 18, 2014 15:02:46 GMT
Beat me to it. Although I'll be surprised if the Labour vote stays that depressed. I tend to agree - given there was 2.4% in it last time, I don't think there'll be 10 this time! Both parties are doing a lot of work in the constituency, so I can't think there'll be anyone who hasn't been contact multiple times, or who won't be energised to vote: turnout was 70 last time, I think it'll be higher next May. Having said that, I'd put money on Caroline to hold. I haven't asked anyone in Brighton, but I wonder how much work they're doing to squeeze the Tory vote against Labour? The LibDem vote is pretty much squeezed dry anyway. Not sure about the last point - the tables for parties you would rule out show that far more Con voters would rule us out than rule Labour out... |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 18, 2014 19:58:41 GMT
Though as always - and I'm sorry to be a bore about this but someone has to be - caution about constituency polling is not a bad idea and neither is caution regarding anything done or funded by Ashcroft. Not great polls for Labour overall, though they were mostly taken before the Autumn Statement which seems to have boosted them a bit (except in MORI) Yes, that's a fair point. Oddly some look vaguely encouraging in a somewhat counterintuitive sort of way. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2014 20:12:56 GMT
Though as always - and I'm sorry to be a bore about this but someone has to be - caution about constituency polling is not a bad idea and neither is caution regarding anything done or funded by Ashcroft. Not great polls for Labour overall, though they were mostly taken before the Autumn Statement which seems to have boosted them a bit (except in MORI) Yes, that's a fair point. Oddly some look vaguely encouraging in a somewhat counterintuitive sort of way. I think that the criticsm of Ashcroft is unfair. His study has been scientific and methodical. |
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Post by Devonian on Jan 11, 2015 16:40:46 GMT
Northern Ireland polling company LucidTalk are producing a constituency poll for East Belfast due to be published in the Belfast Telegraph on the 19th January
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 12, 2015 3:30:28 GMT
That Pavilion (only 1 L!) poll is very good news; I remain convinced that a lot of people will vote against the Greens in the council elections, but for Caroline in the constituency, and that split really shows up between the general voting intention and the constituency question. I would be staggered if Caroline Lucas loses her seat. I agree there'll probably be heavy split voting. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Jan 26, 2015 22:03:07 GMT
The Scottish polls will apparently be out next week (someone on twitter said Monday, but I haven't seen an actual source for that)
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2015 22:11:43 GMT
The Scottish polls will apparently be out next week (someone on twitter said Monday, but I haven't seen an actual source for that) Taking their bloomin time. They've been rumoured for bloody months! |
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Post by Devonian on Jan 28, 2015 16:33:18 GMT
Lord Ashcroft ramping his Scottish constituency polls, probably with good cause, these will be very interesting polls
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2015 19:54:34 GMT
Not sure of what use they are to be honest - maybe a week before the election, but they are a too far out to be of too much significance.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 28, 2015 20:11:42 GMT
Not sure of what use they are to be honest - maybe a week before the election, but they are a too far out to be of too much significance. Less than 100 days to go. Such a poll could set the 'mood music' for much of the campaign. Maybe. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2015 20:16:10 GMT
Aye, but so could the leading presence of Alec Salmond. Far too early, but certainly interesting and great fun for anoraks like us.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2015 21:05:57 GMT
Not sure of what use they are to be honest - maybe a week before the election, but they are a too far out to be of too much significance. It's going to be interesting to see how and where the SNP are eating into Labour support at the moment. Electionforecast has the SNP as favourites in 5 out of 7 Glasgow constituencies despite the massive majorities and it'll be a good test of the micro-data from YG in Scotland. |
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Post by Devonian on Jan 28, 2015 23:04:38 GMT
SKY News interview with Lord Ashcroft
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jan 29, 2015 7:56:43 GMT
'Banging on about the cost of living.' Labour could, and should, have made more of this. That they haven't, and now seem to want to recite a mantra about the NHS, says a lot.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 29, 2015 9:00:47 GMT
So when are they actually going to publish the bloody things?
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