By-elections - 16th October

[middleenglander]

Bolton, Harper Green - Labour hold

Party	2014 B votes	2014 B share	since 2014	since 2013 B	since 2012	since 2011	since 2010
Labour	1,176	50.7%	-6.3%	-1.2%	-22.4%	-16.4%	+5.9%
UKIP	777	33.5%	+9.3%	+15.9%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	282	12.2%	+0.0%	-10.5%	-5.0%	-9.4%	-5.4%
Green	38	1.6%	-2.2%	-2.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	-0.6%
Liberal Democrat	28	1.2%	-1.7%	-2.5%	-8.6%	-10.2%	-22.1%
Independent	19	0.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent							-12.1%
Total votes	2,320		77%	162%	102%	81%	45%

Swing Labour to UKIP 7¾% since May 2014 and 8½% since 2013 by-election otherwise not meaningful

Conwy, Towyn - Conservative hold

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	2012 result	since 2008	since 2004
Conservative	143	25.0%	unopposed	-34.4%	-32.1%
Independent Smith	116	20.2%		from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent Johnson	104	18.2%		from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	98	17.1%		from nowhere	-16.8%
Independent Griffiths	69	12.0%		from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent Corry	43	7.5%		from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent				-17.3%
Alliance for Green Socialism				-14.6%
BNP				-8.7%	-9.0%
Total votes	573			83%	76%

Swing not meaningful

Fenland, Medworth - Conservative hold

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011	since 2007	2003 result
Conservative	257	44.6%	-14.5%	-20.1%	unopposed
UKIP	201	34.9%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	79	13.7%	-17.8%	-21.5%
Liberal Democrat	24	4.2%	-5.2%	from nowhere
Independent	15	2.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Total votes	576		94%	104%

Swing not meaningful

Kingston-upon-Thames - Conservative hold

Party	2014 B votes	2014 share	since 2014 "top"	since 2014 "average"	since 2010 "top"	since 2010 "average"
Conservative	1,062	41.0%	+0.1%	+1.2%	-5.9%	-6.3%
Liberal Democrat	725	28.0%	+10.3%	+10.5%	-6.0%	-4.6%
Labour	314	12.1%	-2.1%	-1.6%	+2.9%	+2.8%
UKIP	269	10.4%	-0.9%	-1.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green	219	8.5%	-7.5%	-8.5%	-1.4%	-2.3%
Total votes	2,589		65%	70%	45%	49%

Swing Conservatiive to Liberal Democrat ~5% since may 2014 and less than 1% since 2010

Rossendale, Helmshore - Conservative hold

Party	2014 B votes	2014 B share	since 2014	since 2012	since 2011	since 2010
Conservative	771	48.8%	-13.3%	+11.1%	-9.1%	-13.1%
Labour	444	28.1%	-9.7%	-3.5%	-13.9%	-10.0%
UKIP	364	23.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent				-30.6%
Total votes	1,579		89%	88%	78%	50%

Swing Conservative to Labour 1¾% since May 2014, Labour to Conservative 7¼% since 2012 and 2½% since 2011 but Conservative to Labour 1½% since 2010

Rutland, Oakham South West - Conservative hold

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
Conservative	240	52.2%	+19.8%	+19.0%	-7.1%	-6.5%
Independent	177	38.5%	+6.8%	+6.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	43	9.3%	-10.9%	-8.9%	-31.4%	-31.9%
Other Independent			-15.8%	-16.4%
Total votes	460		52%	54%	64%	65%

Swing to Conservative but magnitude not particularly meaningful

Rutland, Whissendine - Liberal Democrat gain from Independent

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011	since 2008 B	2007 result	since 2003
Liberal Democrat	192	51.8%	from nowhere	+32.7%		from nowhere
Conservative	179	48.2%	+5.8%	+8.6%	unopposed	-12.3%
Independent			-57.6%	-41.3%
Labour						-39.5%
Total votes	371		64%	99%		79%

Swing not meaningful

Swale, Sheppey Central - UKIP gain from Conservative

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2010	since 2008
UKIP	831	58.4%	+42.7%	+42.0%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	324	22.8%	-21.2%	-21.2%	-40.5%	-11.1%
Labour	240	16.9%	-15.2%	-14.0%	-19.8%	+1.7%
OMRLP	27	1.9%	-6.4%	-6.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Sheppey First						-50.9%
Total votes	1,422		69%	72%	39%	85%

Swing Conservative to UKIP 32% since 2011 otherwise not meaningful

Thurrock, Thurrock West & South Stifford - Labour hold

Party	2014 B votes	2014 B share	since 2014	since 2012	since 2011	since 2010
Labour	903	50.3%	+3.0%	-1.4%	-2.2%	+2.4%
UKIP	621	34.6%	+0.5%	+14.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	270	15.1%	-0.2%	+1.6%	-16.9%	-20.1%
Liberal Democrat			-3.3%	-3.0%	-4.8%
Independent				-11.4%
BNP					-10.7%	-16.9%
Total votes	1,794		81%	114%	99%	53%

Swing UKIP to Labour 1¼% since May 2014 but Labour to UKIP 6½% since 2011

York, Westfield - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
Liberal Democrat	1,804	60.2%	+25.8%	+25.7%	+21.1%	+20.6%
Labour	588	19.6%	-23.8%	-23.6%	-3.3%	-2.7%
UKIP	398	13.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	113	3.8%	-10.0%	-10.9%	-8.1%	-7.5%
Green	87	2.9%	-5.5%	-4.6%	-8.4%	-8.7%
English Democrat	5	0.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
BNP					-10.5%	-10.8%
OMRLP					-4.2%	-4.3%
Total votes	2,995		74%	78%	78%	80%

Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat ~25% since 2011 and ~12% since 2007

[Tony Otim]

A very good result for UKIP in Swale and good for the LDs overall. Conservatives will I suspect be relieved to hold Medworth and Labour Thurrock, but both disappointed with results elsewhere.

[Devil Wincarnate]

What odd results, a stonking night for UKIP and the Lib Dems.  Looks like more evidence that the Lib Dem wipeout at the next election will not be as nailed-on as a lot of people think.

[The Bishop]

I think very few people are predicting a LibDem "wipeout" in terms of MPs now.

What *should* worry them is the genuine possibility that they will effectively have ceased to exist outside a few dozen fiefdoms.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 17, 2014 11:09:52 GMT The Bishop said:

I think very few people are predicting a LibDem "wipeout" in terms of MPs now.

What *should* worry them is the genuine possibility that they will effectively have ceased to exist outside a few dozen fiefdoms.

Although both seats they gained yesterday are outside constituencies they currently hold or, indeed are likely to challenge for any time soon.

[neilm]

I don't see a Lib Dem wipeout but I can foresee them getting more MPs than their vote share would translate to under PR, which would be delicious.

[Deleted]

The result in Westfield is not as surprising as one might think, given the circumstances of the byelection, the former councillor's defection to the Lib Dems and the absolute fury of many residents at the complete cock-up with the roadworks in York which have particularly caused problems from any of the older residents of this area trying to get in and out of town. I have a great friend who lives in the ward who had been a Wainwright Liberal and has always, until the coalition, voted Liberal/Liberal Democrat, but is so unhappy with Nick Clegg that she is determined to vote Labour at the general Election; she did , however, vote Liberal Democrat yesterday to register her own annoyance with the Labour council.
Local elections are often just that - determined by local issues.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 17, 2014 11:53:50 GMT neilm said:

I don't see a Lib Dem wipeout but I can foresee them getting more MPs than their vote share would translate to under PR, which would be delicious.

To out achieve a strictly proportional result would mean either polling under 6% (which is the very low point of their polling this parliament) or getting more than 40MPs (which of course goes up the more they poll). Both I think are unlikely to happen, to happen together I would think almost impossible.

[Deleted]

Oct 17, 2014 7:18:21 GMT keithn said:

(Did someone say Greens? Who are they?)

Down in every by-election this week?

[Tony Otim]

Greens in crap by-election results shocker! Looks like we got squeezed by the LDs in both Kingston and York (Westfield is far from our strongest ward there anyway). Not exactly surprising. Bit disappointed the vote didn't hold up a bit better in Tudor, but not sure how active the campaign was.

[bungle]

Oct 17, 2014 11:55:58 GMT CatholicLeft said:

The result in Westfield is not as surprising as one might think, given the circumstances of the byelection, the former councillor's defection to the Lib Dems and the absolute fury of many residents at the complete cock-up with the roadworks in York which have particularly caused problems from any of the older residents of this area trying to get in and out of town. I have a great friend who lives in the ward who had been a Wainwright Liberal and has always, until the coalition, voted Liberal/Liberal Democrat, but is so unhappy with Nick Clegg that she is determined to vote Labour at the general Election; she did , however, vote Liberal Democrat yesterday to register her own annoyance with the Labour council.
Local elections are often just that - determined by local issues.

And to add - Labour's poor handling of the Lendal Bridge traffic fines saga has left a sour taste in many a neutral's mouth. A classic issue which the Lib Dems could plaster over their Focus leaflets and I very much hope they did. The Labour leadership haven't really thought through the politics of their decision making during this administration so I'm not surprised to see them lose.

Local issues deciding local elections...don't you just love it!

[listener]

All in the family!

Following the success of Laura Knightly in the Conwy County Borough by-election, Luke Knightly, son of the late Bill Knightly, has won his seat on Towyn and Kinmel Bay Town Council. He was standing as an Independent against another Independent.

As Bill Knightly was returned unopposed on 3 May 2012 as a Conservative, this is technically an Independent gain from Conservative.

[BossMan]

What is Laura Knightly's relationship to Bill Knightly then? Daughter?

[Tony Otim]

Oct 17, 2014 13:14:02 GMT BossMan said:

What is Laura Knightly's relationship to Bill Knightly then? Daughter?

Yep.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Twice Knightly?

I'll get my coat.

[carlton43]

For Middlenglander.

Firstly and importantly. Thanks for this enormously useful and entertaining thread. It enriches our week and informs us with a statistical record of great value, so thanks.

May I make a suggestion that you drop the phrase 'From Nowhere' and substitute 'New Candidature' or 'Renewed Candidature'? If we apply that to today's results, the former would be appropriate for Medworth and the latter for Whissendine.

What is the basis of the swing philosophy for computing swing between parties, especially in muti-seat wards and where the position between the top 3 0r 4 parties is quite volatile?

[Tangent]

Oct 17, 2014 11:09:52 GMT The Bishop said:

I think very few people are predicting a LibDem "wipeout" in terms of MPs now.

What *should* worry them is the genuine possibility that they will effectively have ceased to exist outside a few dozen fiefdoms.

That's something which might be not so much of a problem in the long term. As long as an alternative force among the nationalists or minor parties manages to capture their voter base permanently, they might have a good chance of gaining most of the ground back by the end of the decade, given the right circumstances.

[neilm]

Oct 17, 2014 12:08:47 GMT Tony Otim said:

Oct 17, 2014 11:53:50 GMT neilm said:

I don't see a Lib Dem wipeout but I can foresee them getting more MPs than their vote share would translate to under PR, which would be delicious.

To out achieve a strictly proportional result would mean either polling under 6% (which is the very low point of their polling this parliament) or getting more than 40MPs (which of course goes up the more they poll). Both I think are unlikely to happen, to happen together I would think almost impossible.

I agree it's unlikely but even the prospect of it is brilliant. I'd love them to keep all their seats, just under 9% of the total, but only get 8% of the vote.

As it is, I think the Lib Dems will get around 12-14% but will absolutely collapse in some places.

[BossMan]

Personally when calculating swing, I use the results of the parties who came first and second this time, and thus if a party who didn't stand before comes first or second this time then there is no applicable swing.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 17, 2014 13:50:06 GMT neilm said:

Oct 17, 2014 12:08:47 GMT Tony Otim said:

To out achieve a strictly proportional result would mean either polling under 6% (which is the very low point of their polling this parliament) or getting more than 40MPs (which of course goes up the more they poll). Both I think are unlikely to happen, to happen together I would think almost impossible.

I agree it's unlikely but even the prospect of it is brilliant. I'd love them to keep all their seats, just under 9% of the total, but only get 8% of the vote.

As it is, I think the Lib Dems will get around 12-14% but will absolutely collapse in some places.

Personally, at the moment I'd guess they'll get 10-11% but keep 30-40 seats (which will make a stark contrast to results like 1983).