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Post by keithn on Oct 7, 2014 13:14:44 GMT
There used to be a Liberal Democrat Councillor in this ward A Lib Dem councillor in Sheppey Central? That must have been a very long time ago.
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Post by troubadour on Oct 7, 2014 15:54:40 GMT
Not really so long ago. Mike Brown used to represent Central before he joined up with John Stanford in Cliffs. They both had good personal support on the Island and their vote vastly outstripped the core Lib Dem vote. And they were both good at being Sheppey Chauvinists, and still are. Take it they are no longer members. Both to the left of centre, I think.
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Post by keithn on Oct 7, 2014 18:45:21 GMT
I've not met John Stanford but I do recall him shouting at me on the phone for one reason or another. He hasn't been active for at least seven years.
But Sheppey Central is the blackest of black holes for us. Colin Howe was our last candidate in 2007 and he only got about 8%.
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Post by David Ashforth on Oct 10, 2014 19:11:52 GMT
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Post by casualobserver on Oct 12, 2014 14:34:35 GMT
I note you are non-aligned - yet another one who has decided to drop the Tory albatross? Not so!!, I've always been non-aligned on this site ...... But I'm just as partisan as my fellow non-aligned poster, Cllr Troubadour!
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Post by casualobserver on Oct 12, 2014 15:30:59 GMT
Haven't been here for a very long time. Doubt the "solid Conservative win" and doubt whether they have done enough campaigning to call it. It's fine going round the most expensive estate in the ward but we are not finding many people admitting to being Tories. The past success of Sheppey First was built on a Sheppey tendency towards a semi anarchic right wing hostility to authority, especially when it comes from Swale Council. As the Tories nominally run Swale, this element is not an advantage to them. It is potentially good territory for UKIP. What all candidates have to do is to dissociate themselves from the Swale Council they are trying to get on, and profess their unconditional love for Sheppey and their total conviction that the Island never gets its fair share. There used to be a Liberal Democrat Councillor in this ward but the source of his support was not self evidently either liberal or social democrat. Some people supported him because he was their Prudential Man. But above all, he was very good at the "I put Sheppey first" stuff. It is usually a very low turn out and postal votes are significant. I know Labour and UKIP delivered direct mailshots to Postal voters. As usual, Councillor Trou provides a useful insight into the local political landscape in Swale. "solid" may have been overstating it a bit, I admit - but "win" is realistic. This result will be nothing like last year's UKIP win in the Sheppey Division. This ward comprises several communities and interests which are highly disparate, so it's not easy to get an overall view. Most of the ward's electorate lives in the built-up part of Minster, and in this area we seem to be only marginally ahead of Labour, with UKIP definitely behind (unless UKIP voters have become uncharacteristically shy on the doorsteps). What continues to swing this ward to the Conservatives is our substantial lead in the other third of the Ward - Eastchurch, the farms and Brambledown. There our vote appears to be staying firm. There's no doubt that Cllr Trou is correct about the insularity of Voters on Sheppey - but all of the Candidates are clearly well aware of this. This ward didn't ever have a LibDem Councillor - the "Sheppey Central" that used to elect LibDems had different boundaries, significantly not including Eastchurch. As the Lib's former master tactician in the Constituency, Cllr Trou will know best about this, but it seems to me that LibDems won in both parts of Minster because of their Councillors' personal vote, and once they left the local political stage the LibDem electoral performance there collapsed. I didn't know about the "Man from the Pru" - I was told he'd run a local fish & chip shop for years, after being famously photographed rescuing residents in the 1953 floods on the Island. Cllr Trou is also right about the turnout here: it's going to be low overall, but I expect the turnout in Eastchurch to be more decent. The fact that UKIP have" imported" a candidate from Sheerness has apparently done them no favours at all, as Sheerness might as well be on another planet so far as some of Sheppey Central's residents are concerned. There's no doubt that the Conservative candidate is the best-known local in this contest. Unfortunately that will not be uniformly positive for the party in this case. However I doubt that enough people know (of) her personally to stop us retaining this ward on Thursday.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2014 15:36:02 GMT
I note you are non-aligned - yet another one who has decided to drop the Tory albatross? Not so!!, I've always been non-aligned on this site ...... But I'm just as partisan as my fellow non-aligned poster, Cllr Troubadour! I find it amusing that Devonian, who is probably the most partisan kipper on the site is listed as non-aligned.
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,863
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Post by Pimpernal on Oct 12, 2014 16:46:54 GMT
There's no doubt that the Conservative candidate is the best-known local in this contest. Unfortunately that will not be uniformly positive for the party in this case. However I doubt that enough people know (of) her personally to stop us retaining this ward on Thursday. and in the event she does win... do you think that will benefit the local party?
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,863
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Post by Pimpernal on Oct 12, 2014 16:59:26 GMT
Haven't been here for a very long time. Doubt the "solid Conservative win" and doubt whether they have done enough campaigning to call it. It's fine going round the most expensive estate in the ward but we are not finding many people admitting to being Tories. The past success of Sheppey First was built on a Sheppey tendency towards a semi anarchic right wing hostility to authority, especially when it comes from Swale Council. As the Tories nominally run Swale, this element is not an advantage to them. It is potentially good territory for UKIP. What all candidates have to do is to dissociate themselves from the Swale Council they are trying to get on, and profess their unconditional love for Sheppey and their total conviction that the Island never gets its fair share. There used to be a Liberal Democrat Councillor in this ward but the source of his support was not self evidently either liberal or social democrat. Some people supported him because he was their Prudential Man. But above all, he was very good at the "I put Sheppey first" stuff. It is usually a very low turn out and postal votes are significant. I know Labour and UKIP delivered direct mailshots to Postal voters. As usual, Councillor Trou provides a useful insight into the local political landscape in Swale. "solid" may have been overstating it a bit, I admit - but "win" is realistic. This result will be nothing like last year's UKIP win in the Sheppey Division. This ward comprises several communities and interests which are highly disparate, so it's not easy to get an overall view. Most of the ward's electorate lives in the built-up part of Minster, and in this area we seem to be only marginally ahead of Labour, with UKIP definitely behind (unless UKIP voters have become uncharacteristically shy on the doorsteps). What continues to swing this ward to the Conservatives is our substantial lead in the other third of the Ward - Eastchurch, the farms and Brambledown. There our vote appears to be staying firm. There's no doubt that Cllr Trou is correct about the insularity of Voters on Sheppey - but all of the Candidates are clearly well aware of this. This ward didn't ever have a LibDem Councillor - the "Sheppey Central" that elected Brambledown-based John Stanford had different boundaries, significantly not including Eastchurch. As the Lib's former master tactician here, Cllr Trou will know best about this, but it seems to me that LibDems won in both parts of Minster because of their Councillors' personal vote, and once they left the local political stage the LibDem electoral performance there collapsed. I didn't know about the "Man from the Pru" - I was told he'd run a local fish & chip shop for years, after being famously photographed rescuing residents in the 1953 floods on the Island. Cllr Trou is also right about the turnout here: it's going to be low overall, but I expect the turnout in Eastchurch to be more decent. The fact that UKIP have" imported" a candidate from Sheerness has apparently done them no favours at all, as Sheerness might as well be on another planet so far as some of Sheppey Central's residents are concerned. There's no doubt that the Conservative candidate is the best-known local in this contest. Unfortunately that will not be uniformly positive for the party in this case. However I doubt that enough people know (of) her personally to stop us retaining this ward on Thursday. Giving this a second read, I've realised you are either trying to spin a line in the hope of encouraging Labour to save your bacon, or you haven't actually got a clue what's going on and are just trying to stir the pot! Our candidate isn't imported from Sheerness, which is a bit of a blooper on your part!
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Post by casualobserver on Oct 12, 2014 18:43:19 GMT
There's no doubt that the Conservative candidate is the best-known local in this contest. Unfortunately that will not be uniformly positive for the party in this case. However I doubt that enough people know (of) her personally to stop us retaining this ward on Thursday. and in the event she does win... do you think that will benefit the local party? No.
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Post by casualobserver on Oct 12, 2014 19:15:44 GMT
Giving this a second read, I've realised you are either trying to spin a line in the hope of encouraging Labour to save your bacon, or you haven't actually got a clue what's going on and are just trying to stir the pot! Our candidate isn't imported from Sheerness, which is a bit of a blooper on your part! 1. as you know, Pimp, from our many chats over the years, I have absolutely no love for the Labour Party and would prefer UKIP to the socialists any day! I'm just reporting what I understand that Labour support in Minster has not drifted away. I doubt if too many local electors on Sheppey access this site so I have no reason to ramp Labour here, and as you know I am not exactly the greatest fan of the Candidate picked by my party for this ward anyway! 2. I'm no expert on Sheppey geography, and I know from your publicity that your candidate used to live in Minster, but ( for eight years, I'm told?) he's lived in Sheerness East Ward and that's also his published residential address for this election. All the other candidates live in Minster or Eastchurch. A bit of a blooper on your part, perhaps? I'm sure it's quite easy to check which candidates live in which ward if that is really in dispute?
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
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Post by Pimpernal on Oct 12, 2014 20:24:52 GMT
Marine Parade? It's pretty much Minster... But... more can be confirmed on Friday as you know I am not exactly the greatest fan of the Candidate picked by my party for this ward anyway! And to think - her husband was the top tip as to your real identity for a while too!
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 13, 2014 10:51:21 GMT
Kingston-upon-Thames - Tudor - Frank Thompson (Conservative) resigned due to ill health2014: Con 1617/1437/1378, LD 701/698/554, Grn 629, Lab 561/511/455, UKIP 445 2010: Con 2731/2482/2328, LD 1976/1661/1563, Grn 573, Lab 538/529/426 In this week's episode of 'Dodgy Lib Dem barchart watch', we bring you this effort from the Liberal Democrat in Tudor ward, Kingston-upon-Thames. Have a look at the figures above and then realise that the Liberal Democrat candidate in the byelection this week was not a candidate in 2014, but did stand in 2010. So the Lib Dems have done this:
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Post by akmd on Oct 13, 2014 14:52:28 GMT
For a moment there, I thought Marilyn Manson was standing for the Lib Dems! Would certainly be an interesting campaign if he was the candidate!
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 13, 2014 15:57:28 GMT
Kingston-upon-Thames - Tudor - Frank Thompson (Conservative) resigned due to ill health2014: Con 1617/1437/1378, LD 701/698/554, Grn 629, Lab 561/511/455, UKIP 445 2010: Con 2731/2482/2328, LD 1976/1661/1563, Grn 573, Lab 538/529/426 In this week's episode of 'Dodgy Lib Dem barchart watch', we bring you this effort from the Liberal Democrat in Tudor ward, Kingston-upon-Thames. Have a look at the figures above and then realise that the Liberal Democrat candidate in the byelection this week was not a candidate in 2014, but did stand in 2010. So the Lib Dems have done this: And the total adds up to 103%. Looks like they have taken top LD candidate in 2010 (which was Ma nson) against the bottom Conservative candidate but then mangled the Labour and Green figures on something like average votes.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,588
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Post by john07 on Oct 13, 2014 18:44:01 GMT
In this week's episode of 'Dodgy Lib Dem barchart watch', we bring you this effort from the Liberal Democrat in Tudor ward, Kingston-upon-Thames. Have a look at the figures above and then realise that the Liberal Democrat candidate in the byelection this week was not a candidate in 2014, but did stand in 2010. So the Lib Dems have done this: And the total adds up to 103%. Looks like they have taken top LD candidate in 2010 (which was Ma nson) against the bottom Conservative candidate but then mangled the Labour and Green figures on something like average votes. Not to mention distorting the bar charts to make the Lib Dem vote appear to be three times that of the combined Labour and Green vote rather than less than double.
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Post by BossMan on Oct 13, 2014 19:17:17 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 13, 2014 21:51:29 GMT
It really does offer some truth to the oft-heard statement that you know a LibDem is lying every time he/she opens his mouth
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Post by troubadour on Oct 14, 2014 13:26:19 GMT
Been out for several hours in Sheppey Central today. Honestly, I fancy the Tories will do very well if they hold this. Obviously there is UKIP momentum from Clacton etc and I don't think the Central voters all saw the Panorama programme last night. There appears to be a lot of movement from Tory to UKIP in Eastchurch. Eastchurch naturally leans to the right. That's putting it politely. Of course, in a low turnout the postal votes will be a significant proportion of the votes cast, and they went out before the Clacton result, though UKIP momentum was already there. I also suspect a lot of the PVs were recruited from the core Tory vote, but there is no guarantee of loyalty at the moment. The Tories are not helped by being in Government, nor by being in control on Swale Borough Council. I am sure there will be a denial but I'm not sure they have been breaking any blood vessels in this campaign.It's the new estates on Thistle Hill that are intriguing. You would think that people living in new houses wouldn't warm to the cry that new housing is destroying Sheppey, but who knows, having got their new house, no doubt, many think it is a time to say no more. I have no idea how these people will vote or how many of them.
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Post by keithn on Oct 14, 2014 13:43:26 GMT
Been out for several hours in Sheppey Central today. That's interesting comments. I would have loved to have knocked on some doors in Sheppey Central over the last few weeks but, for obvious reasons, cannot do so! Are you finding much support for Labour? From what you say, we should prepare ourself for Swale BC's first elected UKIP councillor? (If I am right, I believe two Councillors then become a 'group' with various perks).
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