By-elections - 16th October

[maxque]

Bolton MB - Harper Green - Asha Ismail (Labour) died
2013by-2015 term

2014: Lab 1713, UKIP 726, Con 366, Grn 115, LD 86
2013by: Lab 744, Con 325, UKIP 252, Grn 60, LD 53
2012: Lab 1656, Con 389, LD 222
2011: Lab 1918, Con 616, LD 326
2010: Lab 2312, LD 1203, Con 903, Ind (2006 Lab winner) 625, Grn 114
2008: Lab 1181, Con 1071, LD 390
2007: Lab 1182, Con 719, LD 419
2006: Lab 1194, Con 768, LD 454
2004: Lab 1272/1196/1195, Con 860/740/716, LD 839/838/791

Jeff Armstrong (Uk Independence Party)
Rebekah Fairhurst (Liberal Democrats)
Susan Haworth (Labour Party Candidate)
Joseph Holt (Independent)
James Tomkinson (Green Party)
Robert Tyler (The Conservative Party)


Conwy UA - Towyn - William Knightly (Conservative) died

2012: Con unopposed
2008: Con 411, Ind 120, Alliance for Green Socialism 101, BNP 60
2004: Con 430, Lab 256, BNP 68

Geoff Corry (Independent)
Barry Griffiths (Independent)
David Johnson (Independent)
Laura Knightly (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate / Ymgeisydd Plaid Geidwadol Cymru)
Beverley Pickard-Jones (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru)
Michael Smith (Independent)


Fenland DC - Medworth - Jonathan Farmer (Conservative) disqualified after receiving a 21 months suspended prison sentence for possessing a WWII pistol

2011: Con 364, Lab 194, LD 58
2007: Con 360, Lab 196
2003: Con unopposed

Kathy Dougall (Labour Party Candidate)
Andrew Hunt (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Erbie Murat (Independent)
Josephine Radcliffe (Liberal Democrat)
Steve Tierney (The Conservative Party Candidate)


Kingston-upon-Thames - Tudor - Frank Thompson (Conservative) resigned due to ill health

2014: Con 1617/1437/1378, LD 701/698/554, Grn 629, Lab 561/511/455, UKIP 445
2010: Con 2731/2482/2328, LD 1976/1661/1563, Grn 573, Lab 538/529/426
2006: Con 1744/1609/1569, LD 810/722/669, Grn 564, Lab 302/250/183
2002: Con 1422/1346/1303, LD 614/588/523, Lab 282/276/262, Grn 235/153, CPA 55

Ryan Coley (Green Party)
Marilyn Mason (Liberal Democrats)
Maria Netley (Conservative Party)
Chris Priest (Labour Party)
Ben Roberts (UK Independence Party)


Rossendale BC - Helmshore - Amanda Milling (Conservative) resigned after being selected as PPC for Cannock Chase
2011-2015 term

2014: Con 1109, Lab 675
2012: Con 674, Lab 566, Ind 548
2011: Con 1167, Lab 846
2010: Con 1969, Lab 1212
2009by: Con 1015, LD 490, Lab 389
2008: Con 975, Lab 320, LD 181, Ind 145
2007: Con 859, Lab 434, LD 244
2006: Con 897, Lab 549, LD 275
2004: Con 1084, Lab 633, LD 500
2003: Con 694, Lab 473, LD 244
2002: Con 763/748/666, Lab 716/714/627, Ind 405

Granville Barker (UK Independence Party)
Emma Harding (Labour Party)
Tony Haworth (Conservative Party)


Rutland UA - Oakham South West - Joanna Figgis (Conservative) resigned as her husband got a new job and had to move

2011: Con 285/277, Ind 279/266/139, LD 178/131
2007: Con 424/404, LD 291
2003: Con 336, LD 288, Ind 227 (two-seater)

Ben Callaghan (Independent)
Richard Clifton (Conservative Party Candidate)
Richard Swift (Liberal Democrats)


Rutland UA - Whissendine - Brian Montgomery (Independent) died

2011: Ind 335, Con 247
2008by: Ind 154, Con 148, LD 71
2007: Con unopposed
2003: Con 285, Lab 186

Sam Asplin (Liberal Democrats)
Jonny Baker (Conservative Party Candidate)


Swale BC - Sheppey Central - John Morris (Conservative) died

2011: Con 911/871/838, Lab 664/618/557, UKIP 326, OMRLP 171
2010: Con 2333, Lab 1354
2008: Sheppey First! 852, Con 568, Lab 254
2007: Sheppey First! 744, Con 522, Lab 246, LD 130
2006: Con 636, Kent Campaign Against Increasing Council Taxes 540, Lab 335, LD 177
2004: Con 738, Lab 561, LD 291
2003: Con 508, Lab 403, LD 139, Rock ‘n’ Roll Loony Party 69
2002: Con 509/504/483, Lab 447/390/381, LD 219/142/132, Rock ‘n’ Roll Loony Party 101

Tina Booth (Conservative Party Candidate)
Alan Henley (The Labour Party Candidate)
David Jones (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Mad Mike Young (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party)


Thurrock BC - West Thurrock & South Stifford - Andy Smith (Labour) died
2014-2018 term

2014: Lab 1054, UKIP 760, Con 340, LD 73
2012: Lab 815, UKIP 321, Con 212, Ind 180, LD 47
2011: Lab 951, Con 578, BNP 193, LD 87
2010: Lab 1628, Con 1193, BNP 574
2008: Lab 668, Con 586, BNP 386
2007: Lab 676, BNP 478, Con 459
2006: Lab 608, BNP 592, Con 471
2004: Con 517/477/469, BNP 404, Lab 404/397/246

Terry Brookes (Labour Party Candidate)
Russell Cherry (United Kingdom Independence Party)
John Rowles (The Conservative Party Candidate)


York UA - Westfield - Lynn Jeffries (Liberal Democrat, elected as Labour) died

2011: Lab 1767/1642/1540, LD 1401/1397/1152, Con 561, Grn 343/260/253
2007: LD 1512/1511/1432, Lab 887/869/758, Con 457/455/358, Grn 437, BNP 407, OMRLP 161
2003: LD 2291/2154/2013, Lab 697/641/613, Con 314

Jason Brown (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Louise Corson (The Labour Party Candidate)
Sam Kelly (English Democrats - “Putting England First!”)
Judith Morris (UK Independence Party)
Andrew Waller (Liberal Democrat)
Alison Webb (Green Party)

[maxque]

Various notes:

Good luck to the contestants to the prediction contest, with a welsh by-election (with 4 independents!), one in the Fenland, two in Rutland, this will be complicated.

Surprising than UKIP have no candidate in Oakham South West since the independent councillor elected in 2011 is now in UKIP.

[finsobruce]

Oct 5, 2014 7:31:18 GMT maxque said:

Bolton MB - Harper Green - Asha Ismail (Labour) died
2013by-2015 term

Jeff Armstrong (Uk Independence Party)
Rebekah Fairhurst (Liberal Democrats)
Susan Haworth (Labour Party Candidate)
Joseph Holt (Independent)

Is there trouble brewing if Joseph Holt wins? Will there be bitter recriminations? 



Rossendale BC - Helmshore - Amanda Milling (Conservative) resigned after being selected as PPC for Cannock Chase
2011-2015 term
Granville Barker (UK Independence Party)
Emma Harding (Labour Party)
Tony Haworth (Conservative Party)


Does Granville Barker have a Harley? Good to see a Granville on the ballot paper regardless...




York UA - Westfield - Lynn Jeffries (Liberal Democrat, elected as Labour) died

Jason Brown (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Louise Corson (The Labour Party Candidate)
Sam Kelly (English Democrats - “Putting England First!”)



Klop! 

[Arthur Figgis]

Shame about the move, always liked Oakham beers.

[Pimpernal]

Sheppey central - could be interesting...

[finsobruce]

Oct 5, 2014 9:29:18 GMT Pimpernal said:

Sheppey central - could be interesting...

Was there a relationship between "Kent against council tax increases" and "Sheppey First!" ?

[andrewteale]

Oct 5, 2014 7:31:18 GMT maxque said:

Bolton MB - Harper Green - Asha Ismail (Labour) died

Asha was a union rep at my work. She died far too young.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Steve Tierney has a blog, which some of you will find interesting and some infuriating. Has a surprisingly bad electoral record for a Conservative in Fenland, though I think that's due to being in the wrong place at the wrong time rather than grotesque ineptitude.

[maxque]

Oct 5, 2014 9:37:59 GMT finsobruce said:

Oct 5, 2014 9:29:18 GMT Pimpernal said:

Sheppey central - could be interesting...

Was there a relationship between "Kent against council tax increases" and "Sheppey First!" ?

The KCACTI candidate and the 2007 Sheppey First! candidate (and winner) was the same person.

[Pimpernal]

Oct 5, 2014 9:37:59 GMT finsobruce said:

Oct 5, 2014 9:29:18 GMT Pimpernal said:

Sheppey central - could be interesting...

Was there a relationship between "Kent against council tax increases" and "Sheppey First!" ?

Both were the work of naffed off ex-Tory councillor Chris Boden who left his party and then went on a pretty successful three year offensive against them before suddenly vanishing from the scene!
IIRC most of the SF! people were fellow Tory defectees, and after the vanishing of Boden their councillors joined the Conservative group en masse and some are still in that Party.

Been a bit of controversy over the selection of the Tory candidate from what I can gather, and some local tories aren't exactly putting themselves out to help. One other councillor has already informed the group they will not work with her and won't be restanding - and no that isn't her husband who is also a councillor!

[finsobruce]

So Boden had a catalogue of parties? 

(I won't get my coat as it's nice out at the moment...)

[finsobruce]

Oct 5, 2014 9:52:08 GMT Pimpernal said:

Oct 5, 2014 9:37:59 GMT finsobruce said:

Was there a relationship between "Kent against council tax increases" and "Sheppey First!" ?

Both were the work of naffed off ex-Tory councillor Chris Boden who left his party and then went on a pretty successful three year offensive against them before suddenly vanishing from the scene!
IIRC most of the SF! people were fellow Tory defectees, and after the vanishing of Boden their councillors joined the Conservative group en masse and some are still in that Party.

Been a bit of controversy over the selection of the Tory candidate from what I can gather, and some local tories aren't exactly putting themselves out to help. One other councillor has already informed the group they will not work with her and won't be restanding - and no that isn't her husband who is also a councillor!

And joking aside what do you think is likely to happen? Do the tories in Swale seem to have their finger permanently on the self destruct button?

[finsobruce]

Oct 5, 2014 9:40:06 GMT andrewteale said:

Oct 5, 2014 7:31:18 GMT maxque said:

Bolton MB - Harper Green - Asha Ismail (Labour) died

Asha was a union rep at my work. She died far too young.

and had only been a councillor since winning the by election herself last year. Terrible. 

[Pimpernal]

Oct 5, 2014 11:03:57 GMT finsobruce said:

Oct 5, 2014 9:52:08 GMT Pimpernal said:

Both were the work of naffed off ex-Tory councillor Chris Boden who left his party and then went on a pretty successful three year offensive against them before suddenly vanishing from the scene!
IIRC most of the SF! people were fellow Tory defectees, and after the vanishing of Boden their councillors joined the Conservative group en masse and some are still in that Party.

Been a bit of controversy over the selection of the Tory candidate from what I can gather, and some local tories aren't exactly putting themselves out to help. One other councillor has already informed the group they will not work with her and won't be restanding - and no that isn't her husband who is also a councillor!

And joking aside what do you think is likely to happen? Do the tories in Swale seem to have their finger permanently on the self destruct button?

A close result between Cons and UKIP.
And an affirmative on the last bit

[Rutlander]

Rutland UA - Oakham South West - Joanna Figgis (Conservative) resigned as her husband got a new job and had to move

2011: Con 285/277, Ind 279/266/139, LD 178/131
2007: Con 424/404, LD 291
2003: Con 336, LD 288, Ind 227 (two-seater)

Ben Callaghan (Independent)
Richard Clifton (Conservative Party Candidate)
Richard Swift (Liberal Democrats)

This is a two-member ward; the other cllr although elected - by 2 votes - as Ind now sits as part of a three-member UKIP group (the one time he stood as UKIP, he lost). There are rumours that the UKIP candidate was to be an elderly ex-cllr (LD!) but they mucked up their nomination papers so it is a Con/LD/Ind fight. The Con lives in a village outside Oakham; the LD stood in neighbouring Oakham SE ward in 2011. Last year the Con was involved in this rather odd story www.rutland-times.co.uk/news/local/villagers-in-langham-submit-application-for-gipsy-site-1-5042033

Rutland UA - Whissendine - Brian Montgomery (Independent) died

2011: Ind 335, Con 247
2008by: Ind 154, Con 148, LD 71
2007: Con unopposed
2003: Con 285, Lab 186

Sam Asplin (Liberal Democrats)
Jonny Baker (Conservative Party Candidate)

The Con Baker was councillor here without trace 2003-7. The LD is 21 and a teaching assistant at the village primary school.

[Deleted]

11 in one week is going to do precious things to andrewteale 's word count.

[andrewteale]

Oct 5, 2014 13:42:01 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

11 in one week is going to do precious things to andrewteale 's word count.

I don't have a word count Given how long next week's Clacton preview is, the word count might turn out to be similar to this week.

[casualobserver]

Oct 5, 2014 11:12:28 GMT Pimpernal said:

A close result between Cons and UKIP.

Don't kid yourself on this one, Pimp! It is shaping up to be a solid Conservative win, despite the unfortunate choice of candidate.

[Pimpernal]

Oct 6, 2014 3:22:33 GMT casualobserver said:

Oct 5, 2014 11:12:28 GMT Pimpernal said:

A close result between Cons and UKIP.

Don't kid yourself on this one, Pimp! It is shaping up to be a solid Conservative win, despite the unfortunate choice of candidate.

Given your past record of over-dismissive predictions regarding UKIP in Swale, I won't slit my wrists over this - but it will inspire me to redouble my efforts even more

I note you are non-aligned - yet another one who has decided to drop the Tory albatross?

[troubadour]

Haven't been here for a very long time. Doubt the "solid Conservative win" and doubt whether they have done enough campaigning to call it. It's fine going round the most expensive estate in the ward but we are not finding many people admitting to being Tories. The past success of Sheppey First was built on a Sheppey tendency towards a semi anarchic right wing hostility to authority, especially when it comes from Swale Council. As the Tories nominally run Swale, this element is not an advantage to them. It is potentially good territory for UKIP. What all candidates have to do is to dissociate themselves from the Swale Council they are trying to get on, and profess their unconditional love for Sheppey and their total conviction that the Island never gets its fair share. There used to be a Liberal Democrat Councillor in this ward but the source of his support was not self evidently either liberal or social democrat. Some people supported him because he was their Prudential Man. But above all, he was very good at the "I put Sheppey first" stuff. It is usually a very low turn out and postal votes are significant. I know Labour and UKIP delivered direct mailshots to Postal voters.